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Research ArticleArticles

Cohort Effects in Promotions and Wages

Evidence from Sweden and the United States

Illoong Kwon, Eva Meyersson Milgrom and Seiwoon Hwang
Journal of Human Resources, July 2010, 45 (3) 772-808; DOI: https://doi.org/10.3368/jhr.45.3.772
Illoong Kwon
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Eva Meyersson Milgrom
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Seiwoon Hwang
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Abstract

This paper studies the long-term effects of the business cycle on workers’ future promotions and wages. Using the Swedish employer-employee matched data, we find that a cohort of workers entering the labor market during a boom gets promoted faster and reaches higher ranks. This procyclical promotion cohort effect persists even after controlling for workers’ initial jobs, and explains at least half of the wage cohort effects that previous studies have focused on. We repeat the same analyses using personnel records from a single U.S. company, and obtain the same qualitative results.

  • Received November 2008.
  • Accepted March 2009.
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Journal of Human Resources
Vol. 45, Issue 3
1 Jul 2010
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Cohort Effects in Promotions and Wages
Illoong Kwon, Eva Meyersson Milgrom, Seiwoon Hwang
Journal of Human Resources Jul 2010, 45 (3) 772-808; DOI: 10.3368/jhr.45.3.772

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Cohort Effects in Promotions and Wages
Illoong Kwon, Eva Meyersson Milgrom, Seiwoon Hwang
Journal of Human Resources Jul 2010, 45 (3) 772-808; DOI: 10.3368/jhr.45.3.772
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  • Article
    • Abstract
    • I. Introduction
    • II. The Swedish Employer-Employee Matched Data
    • III. Cohort Effects in Promotions
    • IV. Cohort Effects in Wages
    • V. Heterogeneity in Cohort Effects
    • VI. Evidence from the United States
    • VII. Discussion
    • VIII. Conclusion
    • Appendix 1 Three-Digit Occupation Codes
    • Appendix 2 Sample Description of Four-Digit Occupation Codes
    • Footnotes
    • References
  • Figures & Data
  • Info & Metrics
  • References
  • PDF

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