The Scourge of Asian Flu

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of in utero exposure to the Asian influenza pandemic of 1957 upon childhood development. Outcome data are provided by the National Child Development Study (NCDS), a panel study where all members were potentially exposed in the womb. Epidemic effects are identified using geographic variation in a surrogate measure of the epidemic. Results point to multiple channels linking fetal health shocks to childhood outcomes: physical development is impeded, but only when mothers had certain health characteristics; by contrast, the negative effects on cognitive development appear general across the cohort.