Abstract
We examine the effect of the increase in violence that Mexico experienced after launching an aggressive campaign against drug-trafficking organizations on immigration into the United States. We instrument for violence using electoral cycles and consider two channels through which violence impacts migration: local and transit violence. Violence at the municipality of residence increased migration. Conversely, violence on the route to the United States deterred individuals from migrating. Back-of-the-envelope calculations show that between 2007 and 2012, local and transit violence had an overall positive effect on migration. Violence was responsible for a 1.53 percentage point increase in the migration rate.
- Received February 2015.
- Accepted February 2017.
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In this issue
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- Article
- Abstract
- I. Motivation
- II. Theoretical Framework and Existing Literature
- III. Data
- IV. Empirical Specification
- V. Results: Effect of the Violence on the Outflows of Migrants
- VI. Exclusion Restriction and Robustness Tests
- VII. Perception and Costs of Violence: Differences across Regions
- VIII. Conclusions
- Acknowledgments
- Footnotes
- References
- Figures & Data
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