Article Figures & Data
Tables
- Table 1
Firstborns’ Education Achievement and Family Characteristics by Completed Number of Children
All Families Number of Children 1 2+ 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9+ Frequency 965,330 114,286 851,044 411,597 332,727 86,220 16,238 3,314 703 181 64 Percentage 100 11.8 88.2 42.6 34.5 8.9 1.7 0.3 0.07 0.02 0.01 Sex ratio (firstborn boys/girls) 1.071 1.300 1.044 1.384 0.938 0.507 0.381 0.410 0.400 0.484 0.561 High school completion 0.24 0.26 0.24 0.30 0.21 0.14 0.10 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 University admission 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.20 0.14 0.09 0.07 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.03 Urban (firstborn’s birthplace) 0.36 0.50 0.34 0.42 0.29 0.23 0.20 0.19 0.21 0.19 0.33 Firstborn’s year of birth 1981 1981 1981 1981 1981 1981 1980 1980 1980 1980 1980 Mother’s year of birth 1957 1955 1957 1957 1958 1958 1958 1958 1958 1959 1959 Father’s year of birth 1954 1951 1954 1953 1954 1955 1954 1954 1953 1953 1954 Mother’s highest qualification College degree+ 0.03 0.07 0.03 0.05 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Professional degree 0.05 0.08 0.04 0.06 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 High school diploma 0.07 0.09 0.06 0.08 0.05 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.00 Vocational high school diploma 0.19 0.21 0.19 0.24 0.16 0.11 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.05 Junior high school diploma 0.25 0.21 0.26 0.24 0.28 0.26 0.25 0.23 0.21 0.15 0.23 Father’s highest qualification College degree+ 0.07 0.13 0.07 0.10 0.04 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 Professional degree 0.08 0.10 0.08 0.10 0.06 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.00 High school diploma 0.10 0.12 0.09 0.12 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.05 Vocational high school diploma 0.18 0.17 0.18 0.20 0.18 0.14 0.12 0.11 0.07 0.07 0.03 Junior high school diploma 0.23 0.18 0.23 0.20 0.26 0.26 0.25 0.23 0.22 0.21 0.17 Notes: This table reports descriptive statistics of characteristics of all families whose firstborn is a singleton and was born between 1978 and 1984. We exclude families with father or mother younger than 18, with missing information about child birth year, or with the number of children at some parity exceeding three.
Dependent Variable = Sibsize (1) Add District Fixed Effect
(2)Add Parents’ Education
(3)Birthplace Mother’s Education Father’s Education Rural
(4)Urban
(5)HS−
(6)HS+
(7)HS−
(8)HS+
(9)All Families Boy1st −0.263
(0.002)*−0.263
(0.002)*−0.263
(0.002)*−0.288
(0.002)*−0.218
(0.003)*−0.295
(0.002)*−0.201
(0.003)*−0.296
(0.002)*−0.219
(0.002)*Average sibsize 2.47 2.47 2.47 2.59 2.26 2.62 2.20 2.63 2.27 Adjusted R-squared 0.158 0.172 0.172 0.145 0.152 0.138 0.125 0.139 0.151 Number of families 965,330 965,330 965,330 614,305 351,025 635,910 329,420 550,224 415,106 Families with One or More Children Model I Boy1st −0.428
(0.002)*−0.429
(0.002)*−0.428
(0.002)*−0.463
(0.003)*−0.362
(0.004)*−0.471
(0.003)*−0.341
(0.003)*−0.469
(0.003)*−0.371
(0.003)*Boy2nd −0.429
(0.002)*−0.429
(0.002)*−0.428
(0.002)*−0.463
(0.003)*−0.363
(0.004)*−0.469
(0.003)*−0.344
(0.003)*−0.470
(0.003)*−0.370
(0.003)*Boy1st × Boy2nd 0.328
(0.003)*0.327
(0.003)*0.328
(0.003)*0.347
(0.004)*0.293
(0.005)*0.350
(0.004)*0.282
(0.004)*0.347
(0.004)*0.300
(0.004)*Adjusted R-squared 0.146 0.169 0.193 0.181 0.165 0.158 0.139 0.159 0.165 Model II Mixed gender 0.101
(0.002)*0.101
(0.002)*0.101
(0.002)*0.116
(0.002)*0.070
(0.003)*0.120
(0.002)*0.060
(0.002)*0.122
(0.002)*0.070
(0.002)*Two girls 0.530
(0.002)*0.530
(0.002)*0.529
(0.002)*0.579
(0.003)*0.433
(0.004)*0.590
(0.003)*0.403
(0.003)*0.592
(0.003)*0.441
(0.003)*Average sibsize 2.67 2.67 2.67 2.76 2.51 2.79 2.42 2.81 2.49 Adjusted R-squared 0.146 0.169 0.193 0.181 0.165 0.158 0.139 0.159 0.165 Number of families 851,044 851,044 851,044 557,683 293,361 572,704 278,340 494,864 356,180 Note: This table reports the OLS estimated effect of sibling gender composition on family size. Other covariates included in Columns 1–3 are the full set of dummies for urban, the subject’s age, parents’ years of birth, and maternal age at the first birth. Columns 4–5 split the sample by the urban dummy and Columns 6–9 by the indicator for mother’s or father’s high school diploma. The top panel reports the estimates for all families whose firstborn singleton was born between 1978 and 1984, and the second part of the table reports the estimates for the same set of firstborns but restricted to those having at least one sibling. Robust standard errors are in parentheses.
↵* indicates significance at the 5% level. We assume in Model II that the coefficients of Boy1st and Boy2nd are approximately equal, as confirmed by the result in Model I.
- Table 3
Mean Education and Characteristics of Firstborn Children in Families with Two or More Children
Firstborn Females Firstborn Males Second Birth Second Birth (1) Before 1985
(2)After 1985
(3)Difference
(4)(5) Before 1985
(6)After 1985
(7)Difference
(8)Sex ratio of next siblings (boys/girls) 1.066 1.070 1.062 −0.009 1.053 1.053 1.049 −0.004 High school completion 0.246 0.207 0.323 0.116* 0.239 0.210 0.296 0.086* University admission 0.177 0.155 0.221 0.066* 0.153 0.138 0.183 0.045* More than two children (Morethan2) 0.585 0.653 0.452 −0.202* 0.450 0.516 0.323 −0.193* Complete family size (sibsize) 2.803 2.923 2.566 −0.357* 2.547 2.636 2.373 −0.263* Age of mother at the 1st birth 23.71 23.54 24.03 0.495* 23.67 23.53 23.95 0.423* Age of mother at the 2nd birth 26.22 25.40 27.83 2.422* 26.22 25.42 27.78 2.360* Mother’s year of birth 1957.2 1956.5 1958.8 2.301* 1957.3 1956.5 1958.9 2.388* Father’s year of birth 1954.0 1953.1 1955.6 2.496* 1954.0 1953.2 1955.7 2.552* Urban 0.346 0.327 0.383 0.056* 0.343 0.325 0.378 0.053* Mother’s highest qualification College degree+ 0.030 0.024 0.041 0.017* 0.030 0.025 0.039 0.014* Professional degree 0.042 0.036 0.056 0.020* 0.042 0.036 0.053 0.017* High school diploma 0.063 0.055 0.080 0.026* 0.063 0.055 0.079 0.024* Vocational high school diploma 0.192 0.170 0.236 0.066* 0.192 0.171 0.233 0.062* Junior high school diploma 0.258 0.242 0.291 0.050* 0.260 0.242 0.294 0.052* Father’s highest qualification College degree+ 0.066 0.056 0.085 0.030* 0.065 0.057 0.082 0.026* Professional degree 0.076 0.067 0.093 0.026* 0.076 0.069 0.089 0.021* High school diploma 0.095 0.089 0.108 0.020* 0.094 0.088 0.107 0.019* Vocational high school diploma 0.182 0.171 0.205 0.035* 0.183 0.171 0.205 0.034* Junior high school diploma 0.231 0.214 0.265 0.051* 0.232 0.212 0.269 0.057* Sample Size 416,315 276,151 140,164 434,729 287,144 147,585 Notes: This table reports descriptive statistics of family characteristics of firstborn singletons who were born between 1978 and 1984 and had at least one sibling. Columns 2 and 6 include those whose next sibling was born before 1985, and Columns 3 and 7 include those whose next sibling was born afterwards. We exclude families with father or mother younger than 18 when their first child was born, or with missing information about child birth year, or with the number of children at some parity exceeding three.
↵* indicates significance at the 5% level.
Dependent Variable = Spacing in Days First Children Born 1978–1984
(1)Pre-1980
(2)Post-1980 (3) Next Sibling Born by 1985
(4)Girl1st × Boy2nd 3.97
(2.81)4.23
(3.42)3.80
(4.88)−3.28
(3.01)Girl1st −15.51
(2.04)*−16.61
(2.48)*−13.17
(3.55)*−9.52
(2.16)*Boy2nd −8.13
(1.98)*−7.92
(2.42)*−8.29
(3.42)*1.32
(2.11)Adjusted R-squared 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.07 Sample size 850,198 598,777 251,421 241,033 Notes: This table reports the OLS estimated coefficients for a regression of birth spacing between the first two births on their sex composition. We use the same sample as the regressions in Tables 6 to 11, except for 811 families whose second born children have missing or erroneous birthday information. We restrict the sample in Column 3 to those whose first child was born from 1980 onwards the sample in Column 4 to those whose first child was born from 1980 onwards and with the second birth prior to 1985. Additional covariates include the subject’s age and district of birth, indicators for urban, parents’ education and years of birth, mother’s age at first birth. Robust standard errors are reported in parentheses.
↵* indicates significance at the 5% level.
- Table 5
Balance Check—Regression of Firstborn Demographics on the Indicator for a Next Brother
Dependent Variable Firstborn Females Firstborn Males Unconditional
(1)Control for the Other Covariates
(2)Unconditional
(3)Control for the Other Covariates
(4)Urban (firstborn birthplace) 0.0016 0.0000 −0.0003 0.0000* Mother’s highest qualification College degree+ 0.0014* 0.0008 0.0001 0.0000 Professional degree 0.0006 0.0003 −0.0003 −0.0002 High school diploma −0.0001 −0.0001 0.0003 0.0003 Vocational high school diploma 0.0030* 0.0017 0.0028* 0.0014 Junior high school diploma −0.0019 0.0004 0.0006 0.0010 Father’s highest qualification College degree+ 0.0013 0.0000 0.0010 0.0012* Professional degree 0.0010 0.0002 0.0004 0.0007 High school diploma 0.0015 0.0006 0.0009 0.0011 Vocational high school diploma 0.0012 0.0003 0.0017 0.0013 Junior high school diploma −0.0033* −0.0011 −0.0008 0.0002 Notes: The table reports the OLS estimated coefficients of Boy2nd in a regression of urban or each parental education level. Covariates not listed here are the full set of indicators for the district of firstborn’s birthplace, parents’ years of birth, and maternal age at the first birth.
↵* indicates the 5% significant level.
Firstborn Female Firstborn Male No Controls Controls No Controls Controls (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) Y = High school completion 0.246 0.246 0.239 0.239 A next brother (D) 0.0037
(0.0013)*−0.0224
(0.0014)*−0.0189
(0.0023)*0.0018
(0.0012)−0.0019
(0.0013)0.0047
(0.0022)*−0.0018
(0.0013)−0.0092
(0.0013)*−0.0082
(0.0019)*−0.0028
(0.0012)*−0.0045
(0.0012)*−0.0016
(0.0017)Morethan2 (M) −0.1183
(0.0014)*−0.1150
(0.0022)*−0.0170
(0.0014)*−0.0109
(0.0021)*−0.1161
(0.0013)−0.1150
(0.0018)*−0.0278
(0.0013)*−0.0245
(0.0018)*A next brother
(D) × Morethan2 (M)−0.0059
(0.0029)*−0.0109
(0.0027)*−0.0022
(0.0025)−0.0065
(0.0024)*Y = University Admission 0.177 0.177 0.153 0.153 A next brother (D) 0.0038
(0.0012)*−0.0159
(0.0012)*−0.0140
(0.0021)*0.0023
(0.0011)*−0.0007
(0.0011)0.0042
(0.0020)*0.0013
(0.0011)−0.0036
(0.0011)*−0.0025
(0.0016)0.0006
(0.0010)−0.0006
(0.0010)0.0018
(0.0015)Morethan2 (M) −0.0894
(0.0013)*−0.0876
(0.0020)*−0.0133
(0.0013)*−0.0087
(0.0019)*−0.0767
(0.0011)*−0.0754
(0.0015)*−0.0182
(0.0011)*−0.0155
(0.0015)*A next brother
(D) × Morethan2 (M)−0.0032
(0.0026)−0.0083
(0.0024)*−0.0025
(0.0021)−0.0053
(0.0021)*Notes: This table reports the OLS results of how the firstborn’s education is associated with the sex of the secondborn (D), having more than two children (M), and their interaction. We also report in Appendix Table A5 the corresponding results with M being measured by sibsize. We include 416,315 firstborn females and 434,729 firstborn males born between 1978 and 1984 who have at least one sibling. We control for the full set of dummies for urban, the subject’s age and district of birth, parents’ education and years of birth, and mother’s age at the first birth. The sample mean of the educational outcome (Y) is in italics, and robust standard errors are in parentheses.
Firstborn Females Firstborn Males (1) (2) (3) (4) Panel 1: Dependent Variable = Morethan2 0.59 0.59 0.45 0.45 A next brother (D) −0.219
(0.001)*−0.221
(0.001)*−0.063
(0.001)*−0.064
(0.001)*Twin2nd 0.436
(0.004)*0.322
(0.005)*0.572
(0.003)*0.539
(0.005)*Twin2nd × A next brother (D) 0.223
(0.007)*0.067
(0.007)*F-statistics for twins effect 11,973 8,680 26,123 14,081 Multivariate first-stage F-statistic 2,046 5,892 Panel 2: Dependent Variable = Morethan2 × A next brother (D) A next brother (D) 0.480
(0.001)*0.476
(0.001)*0.419
(0.001)*0.416
(0.001)*Twin2nd 0.278
(0.005)*0.011
(0.003)*0.305
(0.006)*0.010
(0.002)*Twin2nd × A next brother (D) 0.526
(0.004)*0.586
(0.003)*F-statistics for twins effect 2,875 19,251 2,797 27,981 Multivariate first-stage F-statistic 5,110 12,866 Panel 3: Dependent Variable = Sibsize 2.80 2.80 2.55 2.55 A next brother (D) −0.428
(0.002)*−0.428
(0.002)*−0.100
(0.002)*−0.101
(0.002)*Twin2nd 0.622
(0.012)*0.616
(0.019)*0.720
(0.010)*0.711
(0.014)*Twin2nd × A next brother (D) 0.012
(0.024)0.018
(0.020)F-statistics for twins effect 2,817 1,568 5,258 2,649 Multivariate first-stage F-statistic 488 1,191 Panel 4: Dependent Variable = Sibsize × A next brother (D) A next brother (D) 2.596
(0.002)*2.592
(0.002)*2.498
(0.001)*2.493
(0.001)*Twin2nd 0.317
(0.008)*0.015
(0.004)*367.000
(0.010)*0.013
(0.003)*Twin2nd × A next brother (D) 0.593
(0.013)*0.701
(0.014)*F-statistics for twins effect 1,372 1,203 1,489 1,474 Multivariate first-stage F-statistic 3,472 6,300 Notes: Panels 1 and 3 of this table report the first-stage estimates for fertility choice, using twinning at the second birth (Twin2nd) as instrument. Panels 2 and 4 report the first-stage estimates for the interaction between a next brother D and fertility choice, using D × Twin2nd as instrument. An interaction term for D × Twin2nd is included in Columns 2 and 4 when the interaction between D and fertility choice is included in the outcome equation. We include 416,315 firstborn females and 434,729 first born males born between 1978 and 1984 who have at least one sibling. Additional covariates include the full set of indicators for urban, the subject’s age and district of birth, parents’ education and years of birth, and mother’s age at the first birth. The multivariate first-stage F-statistics are constructed as described in Angrist and Pischke (2009, p. 217–218). Means of the fertility choice variable are in italics, and robust standard errors are in parentheses.
- Table 8
Outcome Equations and Decomposed Effects of Sibling Gender on High School Completion (with Morethan2 as Mediating Variable)
Dependent Variable = High School Completion Firstborn Females Firstborn Males OLS
(1)2SLS
(2)2SLS 1st-Stage Interact
(3)OLS Interact
(4)2SLS Interact
(5)OLS
(6)2SLS
(7)2SLS 1st-Stage Interact
(8)OLS Interact
(9)2SLS Interact
(10)A Next Brother (D) −0.0019
(0.0013)−0.0056
(0.0039)−0.0034
(0.0038)0.0047
(0.0020)*−0.0651
(0.0261)*−0.0045
(0.0012)*−0.0040
(0.0015)*−0.0040
(0.0015)*−0.0016
(0.0016)−0.0128
(0.0126)Morethan2 (M) −0.0170
(0.0014)*−0.0342
(0.0171)*−0.0240
(0.0165)−0.0109
(0.0020)*−0.0955
(0.0342)*−0.0278
(0.0013)*−0.0198
(0.0132)−0.0198
(0.0132)−0.0245
(0.0018)*−0.0307
(0.0203)A Next Brother (D) × Morethan2 (M) −0.0109
(0.0026)*0.0960
(0.0401)*−0.0065
(0.0024)*0.0193
(0.0275)Decomposition Average total effect 0.0019
(0.0012)0.0019
(0.0012)0.0019
(0.0012)0.0019
(0.0012)0.0019
(0.0012)−0.0028
(0.0012)*−0.0028
(0.0012)*−0.0028
(0.0012)*−0.0028
(0.0012)*−0.0028
(0.0012)*Average indirect effect 0.0038
(0.0003)*0.0075
(0.0038)0.0053
(0.0036)0.0024
(0.0004)*0.0211
(0.0075)*0.0018
(0.0001)*0.0013
(0.0008)0.0013
(0.0008)0.0016
(0.0001)*0.0020
(0.0013)Average direct effect −0.0019
(0.0013)−0.0056
(0.0039)−0.0034
(0.0038)−0.0005
(0.0013)−0.0192
(0.0076)*−0.0045
(0.0012)*−0.0041
(0.0015)*−0.0040
(0.0015)*−0.0043
(0.0012)*−0.0048
(0.0018)*Controlled direct effect −0.0019
(0.0013)−0.0056
(0.0039)−0.0034
(0.0038)−0.0017
(0.0013)−0.0089
(0.0045)*−0.0045
(0.0012)*−0.0041
(0.0015)*−0.0040
(0.0015)*−0.0045
(0.0012)*−0.0041
(0.0015)*Difference CDE – ADE −0.0012
(0.0003)*0.0102
(0.0043)*−0.0002
(0.0001)*0.0006
(0.0009)Sample mean 0.246 0.239 Notes: This table reports OLS and IV estimates for the educational outcome equation (with university admission as dependent variable) and decomposed effects of sibling gender on the outcome, with fertility choice being measured by Morethan2. The corresponding results for fertility choice being measured by Sibsize are reported in Table 11. The first-stage F-statistics are reported in Table 7. The samples include 416,315 firstborn females and 434,729 firstborn males, who were born between 1978 and 1984 and have at least one sibling. We exclude the interaction between the twins instrument and sibling gender from the first stage for Columns 2 and 7, while we include it for Columns 3 and 8 in order to be comparable to Columns 5 and 10. The decomposed effects are measured according to Equations 4–6 as summarized: AIE = β2{E[M|D = 1] – E[M|D = 0]}, ADE = β1 + β3E[M|D = 1], CDE = β1 + β3E[M]. AIE and ADE are evaluated at the conditional mean of M=Morethan2: (E[M|D = 1], E[M|D = 0]) = (0.4787, 0.6992) for firstborn females and (0.4191, 0.4831) for firstborn males, while CDE is evaluated at the unconditional mean E[M] = 0.5854 for firstborn females and 0.4503 for firstborn males. We control for the full set of dummies for urban, the subject’s age and district of birth, parents’ education and years of birth, and mother’s age at the first birth. Robust standard errors are reported in parentheses.
- Table 9
Outcome Equations and Decomposed Effects of Sibling Gender on University Admission (with Morethan2 as Mediating Variable)
Dependent Variable = University Admission Firstborn Females Firstborn Males OLS
(1)2SLS
(2)2SLS 1st-Stage Interact
(3)OLS Interact
(4)2SLS Interact
(5)OLS
(6)2SLS
(7)2SLS 1st-Stage Interact
(8)OLS Interact
(9)2SLS Interact
(10)A Next Brother (D) −0.0007
(0.0012)−0.0035
(0.0036)−0.0020
(0.0035)0.0042
(0.0018)*−0.0429
(0.0235)−0.0006
(0.0011)−0.0002
(0.0013)−0.0001
(0.0013)0.0018
(0.0014)−0.0122
(0.0109)Morethan2 (M) −0.0133
(0.0013)*−0.0263
(0.0154)−0.0196
(0.0149)−0.0088
(0.0018)*−0.0669
(0.0309)*−0.0182
(0.0011)*−0.0119
(0.0114)−0.0112
(0.0114)−0.0155
(0.0016)*−0.0261
(0.0176)A Next Brother (D) × Morethan2 (M) −0.0081
(0.0024)*0.0636
(0.0362)−0.0053
(0.0021)*0.0266
(0.0238)Decomposition Average total effect 0.0023
(0.0011)*0.0023
(0.0011)*0.0023
(0.0011)*0.0022
(0.0011)*0.0023
(0.0011)*0.0006
(0.0011)0.0006
(0.0011)0.0006
(0.0011)0.0006
(0.0011)0.0006
(0.0011)Average indirect effect 0.0029
(0.0003)*0.0058
(0.0034)0.0043
(0.0033)0.0019
(0.0004)*0.0148
(0.0068)*0.0012
(0.0001)*0.0008
(0.0007)0.0007
(0.0007)0.0010
(0.0001)*0.0017
(0.0011)Average direct effect −0.0007
(0.0012)−0.0035
(0.0036)−0.0020
(0.0035)0.0003
(0.0012)−0.0125
(0.0069)−0.0006
(0.0011)−0.0002
(0.0013)−0.0001
(0.0013)−0.0004
(0.0011)−0.0011
(0.0015)Controlled direct effect −0.0007
(0.0012)−0.0035
(0.0036)−0.0020
(0.0035)−0.0005
(0.0012)−0.0057
(0.0040)−0.0006
(0.0011)−0.0002
(0.0013)−0.0001
(0.0013)−0.0006
(0.0011)−0.0003
(0.0013)Difference CDE – ADE −0.0009
(0.0003)*0.0068
(0.0039)−0.0002
(0.0001)0.0008
(0.0007)Sample mean 0.177 0.153 Notes: This table reports OLS and IV estimates for the educational outcome equation (with university admission as dependent variable) and decomposed effects of sibling gender on the outcome, with fertility choice being measured by Morethan2. The corresponding results for fertility choice being measured by Sibsize are reported in Table 11. The first-stage F-statistics are reported in Table 7. The samples include 416,315 firstborn females and 434,729 firstborn males, who were born between 1978 and 1984 and have at least one sibling. We exclude the interaction between the twins instrument and sibling gender from the first stage for Columns 2 and 7, while we include it for Columns 3 and 8 in order to be comparable to Columns 5 and 10. The decomposed effects are measured according to Equations 4–6 as summarized: AIE = β2{E[M|D = 1] – E[M|D = 0]}, ADE = β1 + β3E[M|D = 1], CDE = β1 + β3E[M]. AIE and ADE are evaluated at the conditional mean of M=Morethan2: (E[M|D = 1], E[M|D = 0]) = (0.4787, 0.6992) for firstborn females and (0.4191, 0.4831) for firstborn males, while CDE is evaluated at the unconditional mean E[M] = 0.5854 for firstborn females and 0.4503 for firstborn males. We control for the full set of dummies for urban, the subject’s age and district of birth, parents’ education and years of birth, and mother’s age at the first birth. Robust standard errors are reported in parentheses.
- Table 10
Outcome Equations and Decomposed Effects of Sibling Gender on High School Completion (with Sibsize as Mediating Variable)
Dependent Variable = High School Completion Firstborn Females Firstborn Males OLS
(1)2SLS
(2)2SLS 1st-Stage Interact
(3)OLS Interact
(4)2SLS Interact
(5)OLS
(6)2SLS
(7)2SLS 1st-Stage Interact
(8)OLS Interact
(9)2SLS Interact
(10)A Next Brother (D) −0.0044
(0.0013)*−0.0084
(0.0053)−0.0083
(0.0053)0.0133
(0.0045)*−0.1498
(0.0717)*−0.0051
(0.0012)*−0.0044
(0.0016)*−0.0044
(0.0016)*0.0099
(0.0046)*−0.0396
(0.0556)Sibsize (M) −0.0146
(0.0008)*−0.0239
(0.0119)*−0.0237
(0.0119)*−0.0120
(0.0010)*−0.0495
(0.0177)*−0.0233
(0.0009)*−0.0162
(0.0105)−0.0161
(0.0105)−0.0206
(0.0012)*−0.0232
(0.0154)A Next Brother (D) × Sibsize (M) −0.0064
(0.0016)*0.0502
(0.0254)*−0.0059
(0.0017)*0.0138
(0.0218)Decomposition Average total effect 0.0019
(0.0012)0.0019
(0.0012)0.0019
(0.0012)0.0019
(0.0012)0.0019
(0.0012)−0.0028
(0.0012)*−0.0028
(0.0012)*−0.0028
(0.0012)*−0.0028
(0.0012)*−0.0028
(0.0012)*Average indirect effect 0.0063
(0.0004)*0.0103
(0.0051)*0.0102
(0.0051)*0.0052
(0.0005)*0.0213
(0.0076)*0.0024
(0.0001)*0.0017
(0.0011)0.0016
(0.0011)0.0021
(0.0001)*0.0024
(0.0016)Average direct effect −0.0044
(0.0013)*−0.0084
(0.0053)−0.0083
(0.0053)−0.0033
(0.0013)*−0.0194
(0.0077)*−0.0051
(0.0012)*−0.0044
(0.0016)*−0.0044
(0.0016)*−0.0048
(0.0012)*−0.0052
(0.0020)*Controlled direct effect −0.0044
(0.0013)*−0.0084
(0.0053)−0.0083
(0.0053)−0.0046
(0.0013)*−0.0089
(0.0053)−0.0051
(0.0012)*−0.0044
(0.0016)*−0.0044
(0.0016)*−0.0051
(0.0012)*−0.0044
(0.0016)Difference CDE – ADE −0.0013 0.0105 −0.0003 0.0007 Sample mean 0.246 0.239 Notes: This table reports OLS and IV estimates for the educational outcome equation (with high school admission as dependent variable) and decomposed effects of sibling gender on the outcome, with fertility choice being measured by Sibsize. The corresponding results for fertility choice being measured by Morethan2 are reported in Table 8. The first-stage F-statistics are reported in Table 7. The samples include 416,315 firstborn females and 434,729 firstborn males, who were born between 1978 and 1984 and have at least one sibling. We exclude the interaction between the twins instrument and sibling gender from the first stage for Columns 2 and 7, while we include it for Columns 3 and 8 in order to be comparable to Columns 5 and 10. The decomposed effects are measured according to Equations 4–6 as summarized: AIE = β2{E[M|D = 1] – E[M|D = 0]}, ADE = β1 + β3E[M|D = 1], CDE = β1 + β3E[M]. AIE and ADE are evaluated at the conditional mean of M = Sibsize: (E[M|D = 1], E[M|D = 0]) = (2.5947, 3.0255) for first born females and (2.4975, 2.5993) for first born males, while CDE is evaluated at the unconditional mean E[M] = 2.8032 for firstborn females and 2.5471 for firstborn males. We control for the full set of dummies for urban, the subject’s age and district of birth, parents’ education and years of birth, and mother’s age at the first birth. Robust standard errors are reported in parentheses.
- Table 11
Outcome Equations and Decomposed Effects of Sibling Gender on University Admission (with Sibsize as Mediating Variable)
Dependent Variable = High School Completion Firstborn Females Firstborn Males OLS
(1)2SLS
(2)2SLS 1st-Stage Interact
(3)OLS Interact
(4)2SLS Interact
(5)OLS
(6)2SLS
(7)2SLS 1st-Stage Interact
(8)OLS Interact
(9)2SLS Interact
(10)A Next Brother (D) −0.0028
(0.0012)*−0.0056
(0.0048)−0.0056
(0.0048)0.0104
(0.0041)*−0.0954
(0.0648)−0.0010
(0.0011)−0.0004
(0.0014)−0.0004
(0.0014)0.0103
(0.0040)*−0.0520
(0.0482)Sibsize (M) −0.0119
(0.0008)*−0.0184
(0.0108)−0.0183
(0.0108)−0.0100
(0.0009)*−0.0347
(0.0160)−0.0156
(0.0008)*−0.0095
(0.0091)−0.0094
(0.0091)−0.0135
(0.0011)*−0.0198
(0.0133)A Next Brother (D) × Sibsize (M) −0.0048
(0.0014)*0.0319
(0.0229)−0.0044
(0.0015)*0.0202
(0.0189)Decomposition Average total effect 0.0023
(0.0011)*0.0023
(0.0011)*0.0023
(0.0011)0.0023
(0.0011)*0.0023
(0.0011)0.0006
(0.0011)0.0006
(0.0011)0.0006
0.00110.0006
(0.0011)0.0006
(0.0011)Average indirect effect 0.0051
(0.0003)*0.0079
(0.0047)0.0079
(0.0047)0.0043
(0.0004)*0.0149
(0.0069)0.0016
(0.0001)*0.0010
(0.0009)0.0010
(0.0009)0.0014
(0.0001)*0.0020
(0.0014)Average direct effect −0.0028
(0.0012)*−0.0056
(0.0048)−0.0056
(0.0048)−0.0020
(0.0012)*−0.0126
(0.0070)−0.0010
(0.0011)−0.0004
(0.0014)−0.0004
(0.0014)−0.0008
(0.0011)−0.0014
(0.0017)Controlled direct effect −0.0028
(0.0012)*−0.0056
(0.0048)−0.0056
(0.0048)−0.0030
(0.0012)*−0.0060
(0.0048)−0.0010
(0.0011)−0.0004
(0.0014)−0.0004
(0.0014)−0.0010
(0.0011)−0.0004
(0.0014)Difference CDE – ADE −0.0010
(0.0003)*0.0067
(0.0048)−0.0002
(0.0001)*0.0010
(0.0009)Sample mean 0.177 0.153 Notes: This table reports OLS and IV estimates for the educational outcome equation (with university admission as dependent variable) and decomposed effects of sibling gender on the outcome, with fertility choice being measured by Sibsize. The corresponding results for fertility choice being measured by Morethan2 are reported in Table 9. The first-stage F-statistics are reported in Table 7. The samples include 416,315 firstborn females and 434,729 firstborn males, who were born between 1978 and 1984 and have at least one sibling. We exclude the interaction between the twins instrument and sibling gender from the first stage for Columns 2 and 7, while we include it for Columns 3 and 8 in order to be comparable to Columns 5 and 10. The decomposed effects are measured according to Equations 4–6 as summarized: AIE = β2{E[M|D = 1] – E[M|D = 0]}, ADE = β1 + β3E[M|D = 1], CDE = β1 + β3E[M]. AIE and ADE are evaluated at the conditional mean of M = Sibsize: (E[M|D = 1], E[M|D = 0]) = (2.5947, 3.0255) for first born females and (2.4975, 2.5993) for first born males, while CDE is evaluated at the unconditional mean E[M] = 2.8032 for firstborn females and 2.5471 for firstborn males. We control for the full set of dummies for urban, the subject’s age and district of birth, parents’ education and years of birth, and mother’s age at the first birth. Robust standard errors are reported in parentheses.
High School Completion University Admission Baseline Estimates
(1)Add Birthweight Percentile
(2)Add Gestation Length
(3)Add Birth
Spacing
(4)Baseline Estimates
(5)Add Birthweight Percentile
(6)Add Gestation Length
(7)Add Birth
Spacing
(8)A next brother (D) −0.0651
(0.0261)*−0.0529
(0.0260)*−0.0598
(0.0272)*−0.0641
(0.0257)*−0.0429
(0.0235)−0.0325
(0.0235)−0.0354
(0.0246)−0.0420
(0.0232)Morethan2 (M) −0.0955
(0.0342)*−0.0685
(0.0344)−0.0963
(0.0354)*−0.0737
(0.0333)*−0.0669
(0.0309)*−0.0446
(0.0311)−0.0609
(0.0320)−0.0652
(0.0301)*A next brother (D) × Morethan2 (M) 0.0960
(0.0401)*0.0829
(0.0401)*0.0836
(0.0419)*0.0748
(0.0398)0.0636
(0.0362)0.0520
(0.0363)0.0497
(0.0379)0.0624
(0.0359)Mean birthweight percentile of 2nd birth 0.0210
(0.0023)*0.0176
(0.0021)*Gestational length of 2nd birth −0.0004
(0.0007)−0.0001
(0.0006)Ln (birth spacing between first 2 births) −0.0071
(0.0044)−0.0074
(0.0040)Decomposition Average total effect 0.0019
(0.0012)0.0019
(0.0013)0.0014
(0.0013)0.0020
(0.0012)0.0023
(0.0011)*0.0022
(0.0011)*0.0018
(0.0011)0.0023
(0.0011)*Average indirect effect 0.0211
(0.0075)*0.0151
(0.0076)0.0212
(0.0078)*0.0207
(0.0073)*0.0148
(0.0068)*0.0098
(0.0069)0.0134
(0.0071)0.0144
(0.0066)*Average direct effect −0.0192
(0.0076)*−0.0133
(0.0076)−0.0199
(0.0079)*−0.0187
(0.0074)*−0.0125
(0.0069)−0.0076
(0.0069)−0.0116
(0.0072)−0.0121
(0.0067)Sample mean 0.246 0.248 0.247 0.246 0.177 0.178 0.178 0.177 Sample size 416,315 410,203 403,775 415,897 416,315 410,203 403,775 415,897 Notes: This table reports robustness checks on the 2SLS results for the educational outcome equation and the decomposed effects of sibling gender on firstborn females. Though not reported here, we find no evidence of nonlinearity in gestation length. Since boys are heavier than girls at birth on average, we use gender-specific birthweight percentiles and calculate the mean percentile of secondborn twins. We control implicitly for the full set of dummies for urban, the subject’s age and district of birth, parents’ education and years of birth, and maternal age at the first birth. Robust standard errors are reported in parentheses. Estimates for firstborn males are reported in Appendix Table A7.
Observed Family Background Dependent Variable: Twin2nd Firstborn Female Firstborn Male (1) (2) (3) (4) Panel A: Full Sample Sample mean 0.0070 0.0070 0.0064 0.0064 Mother’s highest qualification College degree+ 0.0019* 0.0020 0.0006 0.0003 Professional degree 0.0013 0.0014 −0.0001 −0.0006 High school diploma 0.0003 0.0004 0.0009 0.0004 Vocational high school diploma 0.0009* 0.0009* −0.0001 −0.0005 Junior high school diploma 0.0006 0.0006 0.0001 −0.0001 Father’s highest qualification College degree+ −0.0001 0.0006 Professional degree −0.0001 0.0016* High school diploma 0.0002 0.0008 Vocational high school diploma −0.0002 0.0010* Junior high school diploma 0.0004 0.0007* Sample size 416,315 416,315 434,729 434,729 Adjusted R-square 0.00015 0.00014 0.00010 0.00012 Panel B: First Two Births Before 1985 Sample mean 0.0065 0.0065 0.0059 0.0059 Mother’s highest qualification College degree+ 0.0024 0.0020 0.0004 0.0010 Professional degree 0.0013 0.0010 0.0007 0.0005 High school diploma 0.0007 0.0006 0.0015* 0.0013 Vocational high school diploma 0.0009 0.0008 0.0001 −0.0002 Junior high school diploma 0.0001 0.0001 0.0004 0.0002 Father’s highest qualification College degree+ 0.0006 −0.0011 Professional degree 0.0005 0.0015* High school diploma −0.0002 0.0007 Vocational high school diploma −0.0003 0.0009* Junior high school diploma 0.0003 0.0004 Sample size 276,151 276,151 287,144 287,144 Adjusted R-square 0.00016 0.00015 0.00022 0.00025 Notes: This table reports the OLS estimated coefficient of demographic covariates in the regression D or Twin2nd by firstborn gender, conditional on the full set of indicators for urban, the firstborn’s age and district of birthplace, parents’ years of birth, and maternal age at the first birth.
↵* indicates significance at the 5% level.
Firstborn Females Dependent Variable Firstborn Males Dependent Variable More-than2 High School Completion University Admission More-than2 High School Completion University Admission (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) A next brother (D) −0.221* 0.002 −0.065* 0.002 −0.429 −0.064* −0.003* −0.013 0.001 −0.012 Twin2nd 0.322* −0.030* −0.021* 0.539* −0.016 −0.014 Twin2nd × A next brother (D) 0.223* 0.029 0.019 0.067* 0.009 0.014 Morethan2 −0.096* −0.067* −0.031 −0.026 Morethan2 × A next brother (D) 0.096* 0.064 0.019 0.027 Decomposition Average total effect 0.002 0.002* −0.003* 0.001 Average indirect effect 0.021* 0.015* 0.002 0.002 Average direct effect −0.019* −0.013 −0.005* −0.001 Sample mean 0.585 0.246 0.246 0.177 0.177 0.450 0.239 0.239 0.153 0.153 N 416,315 416,315 416,315 416,315 416,315 434,729 434,729 434,729 434,729 434,729 Restricted sample with close spacing ≤18 months A next brother (D) −0.199* 0.000 −0.086 0.002 −0.111 −0.086* −0.002 0.002 0.001 −0.027 Twin2nd 0.172* −0.009 −0.017 −0.373* −0.010 −0.020 Twin2nd × A next brother (D) 0.204* 0.031 0.030 −0.085* −0.008 0.014 Morethan2 −0.055 −0.107 −0.027 −0.054 Morethan2 × A next brother (D) 0.117 0.142 −0.012 0.042 Decomposition Average total effect 0.000 0.017 −0.002 0.001 Average indirect effect 0.011 0.021 0.002 0.005 Average direct effect −0.011 −0.019 −0.005 −0.003 Sample mean 0.736 0.199 0.199 0.142 0.142 0.604 0.200 0.200 0.129 0.129 N 143,975 143,975 143,975 143,975 143,975 143,975 143,724 143,724 143,724 143,724 Notes: This table reports the first-stage, reduced-form, second-stage, and decomposition results by firstborn gender. All regressions include the full set of indicators for urban, the subject’s age and district of birth, parents’ education and years of birth, and maternal age at the first birth. In the bottom panel, we restrict the sample to families with an interval between the first two births no more than 18 months. The samples include firstborn children who were born between 1978 and 1984 and have at least one sibling.
↵* indicates significance at the 5% level.
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