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Research ArticleArticles
Open Access

Teen Fertility and Siblings’ Outcomes

Evidence of Family Spillovers Using Matched Samples

Jennifer A. Heissel
Journal of Human Resources, January 2021, 56 (1) 40-72; DOI: https://doi.org/10.3368/jhr.56.1.0218-9341R2
Jennifer A. Heissel
Assistant professor in the Graduate School of Defense Management at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, CA
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  • For correspondence: jaheisse{at}nps.edu
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  • National Percentile Pre- and Post-Trends, by Group for Siblings Notes: Teen aunts/uncles include all younger siblings from families where an older sister gave birth at age 15–17. EARLY matches include matches from non-teen-childbearing families to teen aunts/uncles based on first-observed characteristics. JUST BEFORE matches replace first-observed test scores with scores from two years before birth. IND matches include matches from non-teen-childbearing families to teen aunts/uncles based on individual three-year test score trends and other observable characteristics. IND+FAM matches add three-year family average score trends. IND+FAM+NBHD matches add the requirement that matches be from the same neighborhood at first observation. Estimates based on a regression of mean test score on years relative to birth (or time relative to the match year for the JUST BEFORE matches) with person and age fixed effects within the noted population. The lighter shaded area marks the timing of the trajectory matching; the darker shading marks the year of birth.
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    Figure 1 National Percentile Pre- and Post-Trends, by Group for Siblings

    Notes: Teen aunts/uncles include all younger siblings from families where an older sister gave birth at age 15–17. EARLY matches include matches from non-teen-childbearing families to teen aunts/uncles based on first-observed characteristics. JUST BEFORE matches replace first-observed test scores with scores from two years before birth. IND matches include matches from non-teen-childbearing families to teen aunts/uncles based on individual three-year test score trends and other observable characteristics. IND+FAM matches add three-year family average score trends. IND+FAM+NBHD matches add the requirement that matches be from the same neighborhood at first observation. Estimates based on a regression of mean test score on years relative to birth (or time relative to the match year for the JUST BEFORE matches) with person and age fixed effects within the noted population. The lighter shaded area marks the timing of the trajectory matching; the darker shading marks the year of birth.

  • Distribution of Test Scores Following Birth for Teen Aunts/Uncles and Matched Controls Notes: Displays a locally weighted regression of the outcome (y-axis, noted in the panel header) and first-observed test scores (x-axis) using Stata’s lowess command. Teen aunts/uncles include all siblings from families where an older sister gave birth at age 15–17. Horizontal lines represent the unadjusted overall mean for the outcome for siblings (black solid line) and their matches (gray dashed line) based on IND+FAM matches. Vertical gray lines divide first-observed test scores into tertiles.
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    Figure 2 Distribution of Test Scores Following Birth for Teen Aunts/Uncles and Matched Controls

    Notes: Displays a locally weighted regression of the outcome (y-axis, noted in the panel header) and first-observed test scores (x-axis) using Stata’s lowess command. Teen aunts/uncles include all siblings from families where an older sister gave birth at age 15–17. Horizontal lines represent the unadjusted overall mean for the outcome for siblings (black solid line) and their matches (gray dashed line) based on IND+FAM matches. Vertical gray lines divide first-observed test scores into tertiles.

  • National Percentile Pre- and Post-Trends, by Group for Teen Mothers Notes: Teen mothers include all females who gave birth at age 15–17. EARLY matches include matches from non-teen-childbearing families to teen mothers based on first-observed characteristics. JUST BEFORE matches replace first-observed test scores with scores from two years before birth. IND matches include matches from non-teen-childbearing families to teen mothers based on individual three-year test score trends and other observable characteristics. IND+FAM matches add three-year family average score trends. IND+FAM+NBHD matches add the requirement that matches be from the same neighborhood at first observation. Estimates based on a regression of mean test score on years relative to birth (or time relative to the match year for the JUST BEFORE matches) with person and age fixed effects within the noted population. The lighter shaded area marks the timing of the trajectory matching; the darker shading marks the year of birth.
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    Figure 3 National Percentile Pre- and Post-Trends, by Group for Teen Mothers

    Notes: Teen mothers include all females who gave birth at age 15–17. EARLY matches include matches from non-teen-childbearing families to teen mothers based on first-observed characteristics. JUST BEFORE matches replace first-observed test scores with scores from two years before birth. IND matches include matches from non-teen-childbearing families to teen mothers based on individual three-year test score trends and other observable characteristics. IND+FAM matches add three-year family average score trends. IND+FAM+NBHD matches add the requirement that matches be from the same neighborhood at first observation. Estimates based on a regression of mean test score on years relative to birth (or time relative to the match year for the JUST BEFORE matches) with person and age fixed effects within the noted population. The lighter shaded area marks the timing of the trajectory matching; the darker shading marks the year of birth.

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    Table 1

    Descriptive Statistics, Matched Controls for Teen Aunts/Uncles

    Teen Aunts/Uncles (1)EARLY (2)JUST BEFORE (3)IND (4)IND+FAM (5)IND+FAM+NBHD (6)
    Female (percent)57.52758.46258.75057.98156.66752.781
    (3.743)(1.843)(1.685)(1.668)(1.778)(1.985)
    p0.8470.7860.9410.8350.262
    Age at birth13.84913.92913.85813.87713.83713.497
    (0.090)(0.041)(0.040)(0.040)(0.041)(0.051)
    p0.8720.5570.7010.8960.001
    # of siblings in data3.0162.9162.8872.8722.9722.803
    (0.097)(0.048)(0.042)(0.042)(0.044)(0.044)
    p0.7630.5430.4510.6770.044
    FRL (percent)80.10880.67380.57780.67380.21577.535
    (3.212)(1.395)(1.308)(1.314)(1.373)(1.631)
    p0.6880.7060.6850.9750.475
    Black (percent)55.91455.86557.50057.01956.45254.417
    (4.238)(1.959)(1.719)(1.699)(1.874)(2.137)
    p0.8440.8580.9460.9070.752
    Test score at t = −4 (1–100)45.92747.39544.03845.49147.20746.864
    (1.915)(0.975)(0.859)(0.910)(0.914)(1.039)
    p0.5220.3040.7680.5460.667
    Test score at t=-2 (1–100)40.20544.48740.65840.04440.66842.769
    (1.859)(0.960)(0.855)(0.844)(0.870)(1.017)
    p0.0540.9830.7700.8210.226
    School avg. FRL (percent)47.34848.02147.90248.21646.84547.376
    (1.359)(0.564)(0.575)(0.533)(0.640)(0.720)
    p0.6880.7540.5820.7370.985
    School avg. Black (percent)18.89319.25119.04118.95319.25418.986
    (0.639)(0.266)(0.264)(0.274)(0.330)(0.317)
    p0.5610.7970.9050.6160.897
    Mean school first-observed test (1-100)55.18854.83154.90454.93755.11855.304
    (0.676)(0.283)(0.282)(0.263)(0.314)(0.349)
    p0.6600.7390.7740.9250.879
    N1869691,0081,017898804
    • Notes: Standard errors in parentheses (clustered by family ID). Teen aunts/uncles include all younger siblings from families where a sister gave birth at age 15–17 who had at least two of three years of pre-data. EARLY matches include matches from non-teen-childbearing families to teen aunts/uncles based on first-observed characteristics. JUST BEFORE matches replace first-observed test scores with scores from two years before birth. IND matches include matches from non-teen-childbearing families to teen aunts/ uncles based on three-year test score trends and other observable characteristics. IND+FAM matches add three-year family average score trends. IND+FAM+NBHD matches add the requirement that matches be from the same neighborhood as the teen aunt/uncle at the first observation in the data. Includes p-value of /-test between matches and siblings. Comparison in Columns 5–6 against sibling samples in Column 1; comparison in Columns 2–4 against a slightly larger sample that does not have the family test score requirement. Test scores reported as nationally norm-referenced percentiles (1–100).

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    Table 2

    Estimated Effects of Teen Birth on Various Outcomes for Teen Aunts/Uncles

    Control Group
    All Younger Siblings (1)EARLY (2)JUST BEFORE (3)IND (4)IND+FAM (5)IND+FAM+NBHD (6)
    Test scores at t = −1−3.707***−4.570**−1.517−1.701−1.345−0.612
    (1.007)(1.509)(1.160)(1.149)(1.221)(1.326)
    N37045100910301028947866
    Mean match outcome59.53946.28243.19642.55843.02343.135
    Test scores at t = 0−5.483***−5.932***−2.925*−3.166**−4.222***−4.390**
    (1.065)(1.536)(1.236)(1.175)(1.218)(1.342)
    N29,886862878892809755
    Mean match outcome60.02845.35742.67741.99743.55245.278
    Test scores, with age and individual FE−4.287***−2.495*−3.155**−2.407*−2.481*−3.710***
    (0.915)(1.048)(1.040)(1.069)(1.077)(1.101)
    Observations386,7136,6147,0847,0966,2765,669
    N85,8601,0951,1681,1771,029938
    Mean match outcome60.23847.03243.49442.96543.85145.099
    Repeats grade in t = 0 or later−4.287***3.5171.1712.4415.6292.482
    (0.915)(3.556)(3.511)(3.478)(3.684)(3.803)
    N86,2651,1771,2161,2251,084990
    Mean match outcome19.96629.42331.73130.67327.09728.899
    Drops out in t = 0 or later8.074***9.794**7.172*7.682**6.618*5.350+
    (1.925)(3.008)(2.919)(2.928)(3.008)(3.171)
    N48,7931,1771,21612,251,084990
    Mean match outcome9.83913.46215.38515.09615.48413.959
    Juvenile justice in t = 0 or later7.694***5.036*6.027*6.402*5.143*5.986*
    (1.841)(2.536)(2.494)(2.515)(2.603)(2.823)
    N48,7931,1771,2161,2251,084990
    Mean match outcome3.0868.0777.3087.2127.8496.870
    Ever attends any college−13.048***−9.655*−6.761−4.267−5.360−9.679+
    (3.369)(4.714)(4.501)(4.542)(4.846)(5.085)
    N36,612815840826740664
    Mean match outcome66.13059.65155.66051.93956.62159.906
    Obtains any degree or certificate−4.526+−4.546−3.511−2.940−5.536−3.526
    (2.731)(3.980)(3.884)(3.762)(4.049)(4.087)
    N36,612815840826740664
    Mean match outcome38.36825.87123.85422.85326.18025.314
    Obtains a four-year degree−5.334*−5.192−3.806−3.961−5.252−3.283
    (2.111)(3.276)(3.153)(3.086)(3.328)(3.463)
    N36,612815840826740664
    Mean match outcome28.14217.02414.69014.68117.04715.723
    First-obs. controlsYYYYYY
    First-obs. test scoreYYNNNN
    Test score at t = −2NNYYYY
    Test scores t = −4 to −2NNNYYY
    Fam. Scores t = −4 to −2NNNNYY
    Match from neighborsNNNNNY
    • Notes: Robust standard errors clustered by family ID. Analyses include all controls from Table 1. Column 1 includes all children from non-teen-childbearing families as controls, with control students’ t = 0 set at their seventh observation (mean age = 13.6). Column 2 includes matches to younger siblings from non-teen-childbearing families to the teen aunts/uncles based on the first-observed characteristics, including first-observed test scores. Column 3 replaces first-observed test scores with scores from two years before birth. Column 4 replaces one observed test score with three-year test score fiends (t = −2, −3, and −4). Column 5 adds three-year family average test score trends. Column 6 adds the neighborhood requirement. Scores at t = 0, repeats grade, drops out, juvenile justice, and college-going outcomes include one weighted observation from the siblings and their controls. Column 1 test scores at t = 0 include multiple observations per individual control. Fixed-effects models include all available observations from t = −5 to t = +2 from the siblings and their noted controls, excluding t = −1. Test scores reported as nationally norm-referenced percentiles (1–100). The mean for the preferred IND+FAM control group scores at the percentile 43.6 in t = 0, with 27.1 percent repeating a grade in any year following the birth, 15.5 percent dropping out following the birth, 7.8 percent juvenile justice system exposure following the birth, 56.6 percent college attendance, 26.2 percent obtaining any degree or certificate, and 17.0 percent obtaining a four-year degree.

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    Table 3

    Estimated Effects of Teen Birth on Various Outcomes for Teen Aunts/Uncles by Subgroups

    Baseline (IND+FAM) (1)Female (2)Male (3)Black (4)Non-Black (5)FRL (6)Non-FRL (7)
    Test scores at t = 0−4.222***−4.345**−4.001*−4.948**−2.366−4.646***−2.517
    (1.218)(1.563)(1.837)(1.586)(1.957)(1.343)(3.021)
    N809459350454355641168
    Mean match outcome43.55245.19141.43934.63255.73739.91157.682
    Test scores, with age and individual FE−2.481*−3.838**−0.533−3.195*−1.491−2.162+−3.319
    (1.077)(1.378)(1.818)(1.441)(1.589)(1.183)(2.531)
    Observations6,2763,6082,6683,3402,9364,9071,369
    N1,029580449547482810219
    Mean match outcome43.85145.34341.81035.74954.46140.43057.323
    Repeats grade in t = 0 or later5.6297.759+3.0733.35510.537*3.48818.333*
    (3.684)(4.551)(5.950)(5.089)(5.114)(4.085)(7.761)
    N1,084611473598486864220
    Mean match outcome27.09721.82233.99535.04816.79030.83111.957
    Drops out in t = 0 or later6.618*9.331*2.6754.45410.467*7.627*−0.609
    (3.008)(4.239)(4.348)(3.821)(4.622)(3.458)(4.519)
    N1,084611473598486864220
    Mean match outcome15.48414.23117.12217.71412.59316.62210.870
    Juvenile justice in t = 0 or later5.143*2.1799.240+4.4434.9254.3866.834+
    (2.603)(2.369)(4.957)(3.633)(3.138)(2.909)(4.122)
    N1,084611473598486864220
    Mean match outcome7.8493.98512.90311.0483.7049.1152.717
    Ever attends any college−5.360−5.182−5.672−8.082−1.693−3.416−15.761+
    (4.846)(6.236)(6.970)(6.904)(6.517)(5.610)(8.830)
    N740432308389351574166
    Mean match outcome56.62161.08250.18657.50055.55653.28269.065
    Obtains any degree or certificate−5.536−6.981−3.671−6.722−3.352−6.499−4.158
    (4.049)(5.740)(5.264)(5.179)(6.308)(4.223)(9.679)
    N740432308389351574166
    Mean match outcome26.18029.89720.81822.22230.97622.20141.007
    Obtains a four-year degree−5.252−7.866+−2.477−6.483+−3.090−7.025*−0.134
    (3.328)(4.546)(4.533)(3.393)(5.694)(3.011)(9.803)
    N740432308389351574166
    Mean match outcome17.04720.10312.63912.22222.89613.70729.496
    • Notes: Robust standard errors clustered by family ID. Column 1 is the preferred IND+FAM trajectory estimate from the Table 2; later columns repeat the analysis by subgroups. Test scores reported as nationally norm-referenced percentiles (1–100).

    • View popup
    Table 4

    Estimated Effects of Teen Birth on Various Outcomes for Alternative and Placebo Treatment Groups

    Placebo: Pre-Scores for Teen Aunts/Uncles (t =-2) (IND+FAM) (1)Placebo: Nonchildbearing Families (IND+FAM) (2)Placebo: Nonchildbearing Families (IND+FAM+NBHD) (3)Alternative: Older Siblings as Treated (IND+FAM) (4)
    Test scores0.3210.199−0.614
    (1.111)(1.085)(1.191)
    N1,0091,140990
    Repeats grade0.704−5.216+−5.119+
    (0.954)(2.917)(3.044)
    N1,0781,6961,392
    Drops out−0.496−0.130
    (2.351)(2.292)
    N16961392
    Juvenile justice−0.106−1.470−3.474+
    (0.108)(1.628)(1.801)
    N1,0781,6961,392
    Ever attends any college1.8570.980−25.530+
    (3.839)(4.121)(14.174)
    N1,17494180
    Obtains any degree or certificate1.209−0.67417.431
    (3.261)(3.446)(10.750)
    N1,17494180
    Obtains a four-year degree−0.2400.5005.731
    (2.719)(2.889)(11.346)
    N1,17494180
    • Notes: Robust standard errors clustered by family ID. All analyses based on the trajectory matches with other controls and same neighborhood requirement. Column 1 conducts the analysis for the older siblings of teen mothers. These teen aunts/uncles are over 18 years old. I use an IND+FAM match because the IND+FAM+NBHD model has very low N. I use the six, seven, and eight years before the birth to estimate the trajectory, as these are the years with at least 50 percent of the test score data for the siblings who are 18 or older at the time of the birth. Outcomes are postsecondary, though it is possible that the siblings may have started or completed college by the time of birth. The outcome is Column 2 examines the outcomes for the IND+FAM control group two years before the birth. Columns 3 and 4 conduct the IND+FAM and IND+FAM+NBHD analysis using 200 randomly selected families without teen childbearing in their family who had been used in the IND+FAM analysis as controls. These former controls are treated as a placebo group and matched to a new set of matches, and the analysis displays the comparison between these placebos and their matched controls.

    • View popup
    Table 5

    Time Use for Teen Aunts/Uncles and Other Teenagers

    Sleep (Primary) (1)School (Primary) (2)Work (Primary) (3)Childcare (Primary) (4)Any Childcare (5)With Friends (6)With Parents (7)
    Panel A: All Days
    Teen uncle4.812−2.6642.8857.019−3.231−2.09921.606
    (20.904)(20.004)(16.351)(7.076)(14.486)(30.464)(26.865)
    Teen aunt7.400−14.72311.04922.119*111.989***−70.723**−31.444
    (21.835)(19.940)(15.398)(11.024)(30.928)(26.194)(21.306)
    p(aunt = uncle)0.9320.6680.7150.2490.0010.0870.121
    Male mean586.635156.39543.5395.79438.573219.328156.607
    Female mean581.855168.88044.05110.47155.714215.013180.022
    Observations7,4407,4407,4407,4407,4407,4407,440
    Panel B: Weekdays
    Teen uncle22.501−27.04714.2592.175−7.604−32.508−15.973
    (35.565)(45.167)(32.111)(3.348)(9.058)(43.608)(17.631)
    Teen aunt−15.085−3.26813.88910.758131.283**−21.3705.846
    (31.163)(32.581)(17.805)(7.643)(43.421)(38.060)(25.514)
    p(aunt = uncle)0.4270.6690.9920.3030.0020.8470.479
    Male mean534.053300.69540.3924.63230.575219.358104.021
    Female mean531.730298.95239.2249.76848.694218.891125.451
    Observations3,48034,803,4803,4803,4803,4803,480
    Panel C: Weekends
    Teen uncle−3.030−1.193−0.35111.1331.95823.10251.163
    (25.704)(9.614)(17.228)(11.400)(23.431)(41.738)(42.550)
    Teen aunt32.564−25.852**5.81734.49288.105*−123.765***−71.819*
    (29.390)(8.314)(25.636)(21.539)(42.622)(29.212)(33.548)
    p(aunt = uncle)0.3610.0510.8410.3390.0760.0040.023
    Male mean631.80232.44746.2426.79345.444219.303201.776
    Female mean627.02551.66848.40111.10562.041211.519229.198
    Observations3,9603,9603,9603,9603,9603,9603,960
    • Notes: Robust standard errors in parentheses. Outcomes are time use in minutes. Sleep, school, work, and childcare as primary activities are mutually exclusive. Any childcare time (Column 5) includes any time spent on childcare as a primary or secondary activity. Time with friends and parents are time spent on any activity where the respondent reported those individuals were present population includes 15-, 16-, and 17-year-old American Time Use Survey respondents who do not live with their own child (a proxy for nonparents). Displays the estimated difference in time use for the aunts/uncles of young children who live in the same home relative to other teens. Teen aunts/uncles identified as respondents with related, non-own, non-sibling child under the age of five in their household. Analysis controls for sex, own mother’s education, race/ethnicity, metropolitan status, age fixed effects, day of the week, an indicator for holidays, and month fixed effects. Panels B and C split the analysis by week days and weekend/holidays, respectively.

    • View popup
    Table 6

    Comparison of IND+FAM Matching and Sibling FE Estimates

    Teen Moms, IND+FAM (1)Teen Aunts, IND+FAM (2)Sibling Comparison OLS (3)Sibling Comparison FE (4)
    Panel A: Repeats Grade in t = 0 or Later
    Teen mothers13.464***3.35610.317
    (3.540)(5.596)(6.325)
    Teen aunts7.759+
    (4.554)
    N1,334611529529
    Groups242
    Sibling difference5.70510.317
    Panel B: Drops out in t = 0 or Later
    Teen mothers19.425***23.277***9.106
    (3.258)(5.869)(6.509)
    Teen aunts9.337*
    (4.237)
    N1,334611529529
    Groups242
    Sibling difference10.0889.106
    Panel C: Juvenile Justice in t = 0 or Later
    Teen mothers−0.431−9.194**−11.149**
    (0.908)(2.971)(3.777)
    Teen aunts2.146
    (2.368)
    N1,334611529529
    Groups242
    Sibling difference−2.577−11.149
    • Notes: Robust standard errors clustered by family ID. Column 1 is the preferred IND+FAM trajectory estimate for teen mothers from Table 5; Column 2 is the preferred IND+FAM trajectory estimate for teen aunts (the sisters of teen mothers) from Table 3. Column 3 runs an OLS estimate on the population of sets of sisters under age 18 where at least two sisters have the outcome data for a given row. Controls are the same as in the IND+FAM models. Column 4 uses the same population to conduct a sibling FE estimate with controls for age. The difference row displays the difference between the teen mother and teen aunt estimates (Column 1 minus Column 2) and the estimate from the sibling FE model (Column 4). Analysis does not examine test scores or college outcomes due to limited post-birth overlap in sibling pairs.

Additional Files

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  • Free alternate access to The Journal of Human Resources supplementary materials is available at https://uwpress.wisc.edu/journals/journals/jhr-supplementary.html

    • JHRv56n01_Heissel_OnlineApp.pdf
    • JHRv56n01_Heissel_Dataset.zip
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Journal of Human Resources: 56 (1)
Journal of Human Resources
Vol. 56, Issue 1
Winter 2021
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Teen Fertility and Siblings’ Outcomes
Jennifer A. Heissel
Journal of Human Resources Jan 2021, 56 (1) 40-72; DOI: 10.3368/jhr.56.1.0218-9341R2

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Teen Fertility and Siblings’ Outcomes
Jennifer A. Heissel
Journal of Human Resources Jan 2021, 56 (1) 40-72; DOI: 10.3368/jhr.56.1.0218-9341R2
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    • Abstract
    • I. Introduction
    • II. Data
    • III. Analytic Method
    • IV. Results
    • V. Discussion
    • VI. Conclusion
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  • I21
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