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Research ArticleArticles
Open Access

The Sources of the Wage Losses of Displaced Workers

The Role of the Reallocation of Workers into Firms, Matches, and Job Titles

Pedro Raposo, Pedro Portugal and Anabela Carneiro
Journal of Human Resources, July 2021, 56 (3) 786-820; DOI: https://doi.org/10.3368/jhr.56.3.0317-8667R3
Pedro Raposo
Pedro Raposo is at Católica Lisbon School of Business and Economics.
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  • For correspondence: pedro.raposo{at}ucp.pt
Pedro Portugal
Pedro Portugal is at Banco de Portugal, NOVA School of Business and Economics
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  • For correspondence: pportugal{at}bportugal.pt
Anabela Carneiro
Anabela Carneiro is at the Universidade do Porto and CEF.UP–Center for Economics and Finance at the University of Porto.
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  • Figure 1
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    Figure 1 Empirical Distribution of Wages and Wage Components for Displaced and Nondisplaced Workers

    Notes: This figure plots the empirical distributions of wages and wage components before displacement of workers displaced due to firm closures and their nondisplaced counterparts. Plots for displaced workers correspond to the year of displacement (D 0).

  • Figure 2
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    Figure 2 Empirical Distribution of Wages and Wage Components of Displaced Workers: Pre- and Postdisplacement

    Notes: Displaced workers’ empirical distributions in the last year before displacement and in the first year after displacement.

  • Figure A1
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    Figure A1 Mean Log Wages of Firm Movers, Classified by Quartile of Mean Coworker Wage at Origin and Destination Firm

    Notes: The classification of workers into quartiles is based on the mean log wage of all coworkers (displaced and nondisplaced) in the last year of the old job and in the first year on the new job.

  • Figure A2
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    Figure A2 Mean Log Wages of Job Title Movers, Classified by Quartile of Mean Coworker Wage at Origin and Destination Job Title

    Notes: The classification of workers into quartiles is based on the mean log wage of all coworkers (displaced and nondisplaced) in the last year of the old job title and in the first year on the new job title.

Tables

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    Table 1

    Sample Composition: Displaced Workers

    YearDisplaced
    D −1018,279
    D −924,986
    D −828,828
    D −738,463
    D −647,253
    D −556,456
    D −465,070
    D −379,297
    D −294,667
    D −198,274
    D 0119,895
    D 122,934
    D 237,136
    D 343,634
    D 448,125
    D 547,747
    D 644,904
    D 740,527
    D 833,233
    D 931,048
    D 1027,274
    Total1,048,030
    • Notes: The sample includes all displaced individuals who are employed in the year of the displacement D 0 and have at least two years of tenure and who are in reemployment in at least one year before the end of the sample period.

    • View popup
    Table 2

    Sample Composition: Nondisplaced and Displaced Workers

    YearNondisplacedDisplaced
    1986451,57812,519
    1987481,63315,871
    1988480,26217,847
    1989469,08021,013
    1991484,86726,721
    1992499,63928,325
    1993480,02431,164
    1994496,53931,844
    1995547,39138,520
    1996535,73841,146
    1997523,83942,946
    1998531,13448,036
    1999540,29452,214
    2000511,01748,834
    2002477,74439,211
    2003517,16545,262
    2004547,76448,623
    2005578,41952,031
    2006560,37449,621
    2007571,06550,101
    2008578,77949,746
    2009565,86245,957
    2010621,95541,963
    2011630,04933,422
    2012614,10729,691
    2013616,20728,254
    2014610,34928,298
    2015606,48327,039
    2016553,72521,811
    Total15,683,0821,048,030
    • Notes: Composition of the sample by year and displacement status.

    • View popup
    Table 3

    Wage Loss Estimates

    Embedded ImageSEEmbedded ImageSEEmbedded ImageSE
    (1)(2)(3)
    Specification 1
    D −10−0.218(0.003)0.061(0.002)0.003(0.001)
    D −9−0.178(0.003)0.061(0.001)0.008(0.001)
    D −8−0.183(0.003)0.044(0.001)0.000(0.001)
    D −7−0.135(0.003)0.042(0.001)0.005(0.001)
    D −6−0.122(0.003)0.067(0.001)0.032(0.001)
    D −5−0.159(0.002)0.032(0.001)−0.002(0.001)
    D −4−0.171(0.002)0.024(0.001)−0.004(0.001)
    D −3−0.176(0.002)0.021(0.001)−0.003(0.001)
    D −2−0.181(0.002)0.018(0.001)−0.002(0.001)
    D −1−0.185(0.002)0.015(0.001)−0.003(0.001)
    D 0−0.213(0.002)0.009(0.001)−0.008(0.001)
    D 1−0.156(0.004)−0.013(0.001)−0.024(0.001)
    D 2−0.219(0.003)−0.018(0.001)−0.011(0.001)
    D 3−0.241(0.003)−0.029(0.001)−0.005(0.001)
    D 4−0.240(0.002)−0.039(0.001)−0.002(0.001)
    D 5−0.268(0.003)−0.048(0.001)0.001(0.001)
    D 6−0.294(0.003)−0.056(0.001)0.002(0.001)
    D 7−0.334(0.003)−0.062(0.001)0.005(0.001)
    D 8−0.377(0.003)−0.072(0.001)0.006(0.001)
    D 9−0.373(0.003)−0.072(0.001)0.011(0.001)
    D 10−0.349(0.003)−0.067(0.001)0.013(0.001)
    R20.110.890.92
    Specification 2
    Predisplacement−0.218(0.003)0.026(0.000)0.000
    Postdisplacement−0.178(0.003)−0.046(0.000)0.000
    R20.110.890.92
    Specification 3
    Net−0.106(0.002)−0.072(0.000)0.000
    R 20.110.890.92
    • Notes: The dependent variable in all regression models is the natural log of the real monthly wages. Columns 1, 2, and 3 report, respectively, the OLS, the base, and full model regression coefficient estimates. Age (and its square) and time dummies included in the OLS model; age squared, time dummies, and worker fixed effects included in the base model; age squared, time dummies, worker–firm, and job title fixed effects included in the full model. Specification 1 presents the estimates of the coefficients of the displacement dummies for each year before and after displacement. Specification 2 aggregates the years into two periods before (years D −10–D 0) and after (years D 1–D 10) displacement; Specification 3 is a simple reparametrization of Specification 2 providing the net effect. Standard errors in Column 1 are clustered by worker and firm and in Columns 2 and 3 are bootstrapped at the worker level using 500 resamplings. The total number of observations equals 16,731,112.

    • View popup
    Table 4

    Decomposition of the Wage Loss into the Contribution of Firm, Match Quality, and Job Title Fixed Effects

    Decomposition of the Wage Loss into
    Wage LossFirm FEMatch Quality FEJob Title FE
    Embedded ImageEmbedded ImageSEEmbedded ImageSEEmbedded ImageSE
    (1)(2)(3)(4)
    Specification 1
    D −100.0580.016(0.000)0.014(0.000)0.028(0.001)
    D −90.0530.016(0.000)0.013(0.000)0.023(0.000)
    D −80.0440.015(0.000)0.011(0.000)0.018(0.000)
    D −70.0370.013(0.000)0.011(0.000)0.013(0.000)
    D −60.0350.011(0.000)0.010(0.000)0.014(0.000)
    D −50.0340.012(0.000)0.009(0.000)0.012(0.000)
    D −40.0280.010(0.000)0.008(0.000)0.010(0.000)
    D −30.0240.008(0.000)0.007(0.000)0.008(0.000)
    D −20.0200.006(0.000)0.007(0.000)0.007(0.000)
    D −10.0180.005(0.000)0.007(0.000)0.006(0.000)
    D 00.0170.005(0.000)0.006(0.000)0.005(0.000)
    D 10.0110.014(0.000)−0.006(0.001)0.003(0.000)
    D 2−0.0070.006(0.001)−0.008(0.001)−0.004(0.000)
    D 3−0.024−0.003(0.001)−0.011(0.000)−0.010(0.000)
    D 4−0.037−0.011(0.001)−0.012(0.000)−0.014(0.000)
    D 5−0.049−0.017(0.001)−0.015(0.000)−0.017(0.000)
    D 6−0.058−0.023(0.001)−0.015(0.000)−0.020(0.000)
    D 7−0.067−0.026(0.001)−0.018(0.000)−0.023(0.000)
    D 8−0.078−0.031(0.001)−0.020(0.001)−0.028(0.000)
    D 9−0.083−0.031(0.001)−0.021(0.001)−0.031(0.000)
    D 10−0.080−0.027(0.001)−0.020(0.001)−0.033(0.000)
    R20.960.990.99
    Specification 2
    Predisplacement0.0260.008(0.001)0.008(0.001)0.010(0.001)
    Postdisplacement−0.046−0.014(0.002)−0.015(0.001)−0.017(0.001)
    R20.960.990.99
    Specification 3
    Net−0.072−0.022(0.001)−0.023(0.001)−0.027(0.001)
    R20.960.990.99
    • Notes: This table reports the decomposition of the wage loss variation of displaced workers from the base (Column 2) to the full models (Column 3)of Table 3. Columns 2–4 report the contribution of the corresponding fixed effect for the observed change in the estimates of the wage loss from the base to the full model computed according to the procedure described in Section IV.C. Bootstrapped standard errors in parentheses, where resampling was done at the worker level using 500 replications. The total number of observations equals 16,731,112.

    • View popup
    Table 5

    Decomposition of the Wage Loss into the Contribution of Firm, Match Quality, and Job Title Fixed Effects—Bargained Wage

    Decomposition of the Wage Loss into
    Wage LossFirm FEMatch Quality FEJob Title FE
    PeriodEmbedded ImageEmbedded ImageEmbedded ImageEmbedded ImageEmbedded ImageEmbedded Image
    (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)
    Specification 2
    Predisplacement0.0230.0000.0230.001−0.0010.022
    (0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)
    Postdisplacement−0.0400.000−0.040−0.0020.002−0.039
    (0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)
    R20.850.930.910.890.90
    Specification 3
    Net−0.0630.000−0.063−0.0040.003−0.062
    (0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)
    R20.850.930.910.890.90
    • Notes: See the notes to Table 4.

    • View popup
    Table 6

    Decomposition of the Wage Loss Variation into the Contribution of Firm, Match Quality, and Job Title Fixed Effects—Wage Cushion

    Decomposition of the Wage Loss into
    Wage LossFirm FEMatch Quality FEJob Title FE
    PeriodEmbedded ImageEmbedded ImageEmbedded ImageEmbedded ImageEmbedded ImageEmbedded Image
    (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)
    Specification 2
    Predisplacement0.0030.0000.0030.0070.009−0.013
    (0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)
    Postdisplacement−0.0060.000−0.006−0.012−0.0160.022
    (0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)
    R20.850.930.960.990.95
    Specification 3
    Net−0.0090.000−0.009−0.019−0.0250.035
    (0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)
    R20.850.930.960.990.95
    • Notes: See the notes to Table 4.

    • View popup
    Table 7

    Decomposition of the Wage Loss Variation into the Contribution of Firm, Match Quality, and Job Title Fixed Effects: Alternative Sample—Relaxing the Tenure Restrictions on Both Groups by Including Individuals with Less Than Two Years of Tenure

    Decomposition of the Wage Loss into
    Wage LossFirm FEMatch Quality FEJob Title FE
    PeriodEmbedded ImageEmbedded ImageEmbedded ImageEmbedded ImageEmbedded ImageEmbedded Image
    (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)
    Specification 3
    Net−0.0710.000−0.071−0.030−0.016−0.025
    (0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)
    R20.870.910.940.990.99
    • Notes: See the notes to Table 4. We report the wage loss estimates following a simple reparametrization providing the net effect—row labeled “Net.” The total number of observations equals 20,484,030.

    • View popup
    Table 8

    Decomposition of the Wage Loss Variation into the Contribution of Firm, Match Quality, and Job Title Fixed Effects: Alternative Sample—Relaxing Firm Size Restrictions by Including Individuals Employed in Small Firms (10–20 Employees)

    Decomposition of the Wage Loss into
    Wage LossFirm FEMatch Quality FEJob Title FE
    PeriodEmbedded ImageEmbedded ImageEmbedded ImageEmbedded ImageEmbedded ImageEmbedded Image
    (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)
    Specification 3
    Net−0.0600.000−0.060−0.014−0.024−0.022
    (0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)
    R20.880.910.950.990.96
    • Notes: See the notes to Table 4. We report the wage loss estimates following a simple reparametrization providing the net effect—row labeled “Net.” The total number of observations equals 19,228,339.

    • View popup
    Table 9

    Decomposition of the Wage Loss Variation into the Contribution of Firm, Match Quality, and Job Title Fixed Effects: Alternative Sample—Relaxing the Definition of Displacement by Including Individuals Displaced Due to Mass Layoffs

    Decomposition of the Wage Loss into
    Wage LossFirm FEMatch Quality FEJob Title FE
    PeriodEmbedded ImageEmbedded ImageEmbedded ImageEmbedded ImageEmbedded ImageEmbedded Image
    (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)
    Specification 3
    Net−0.0920.000−0.092−0.042−0.016−0.034
    (0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)
    R20.880.910.960.990.99
    • Notes: See the notes to Table 4. We report the wage loss estimates following a simple reparametrization providing the net effect—row labeled “Net.” A mass layoff occurs when a firm reduces its workforce by more than 30 percent in two consecutive periods with a minimum of six separations. The total number of observations equals 15,982,889.

    • View popup
    Table 10

    Decomposition of the Wage Loss Variation into the Contribution of Firm, Match Quality, and Job Title Fixed Effects: Alternative Model Specification—Using Hourly Wages as the Dependent Variable in the Base and Full Models

    Decomposition of the Wage Loss into
    Wage LossFirm FEMatch Quality FEJob Title FE
    PeriodEmbedded ImageEmbedded ImageEmbedded ImageEmbedded ImageEmbedded ImageEmbedded Image
    (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)
    Specification 3
    Net−0.0720.000−0.072−0.019−0.019−0.032
    (0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)
    R20.900.930.960.990.99
    • Notes: See the notes to Table 4. We report the wage loss estimates following a simple reparametrization providing the net effect—row labeled “Net.” The total number of observations equals 16,731,112.

    • View popup
    Table 11

    Decomposition of the Wage Loss Variation into the Contribution of Firm, Match Quality, and Job Title Fixed Effects: Alternative Model Specification—Using a Random Trend Model

    Decomposition of the Wage Loss into
    Wage LossFirm FEMatch Quality FEJob Title FE
    PeriodEmbedded ImageEmbedded ImageEmbedded ImageEmbedded ImageEmbedded ImageEmbedded Image
    (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)
    Specification 3
    Net−0.0370.000−0.037−0.016−0.012−0.009
    (0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)
    R20.930.940.990.990.97
    • Notes: See the notes to Table 4. We report the wage loss estimates following a simple reparametrization providing the net effect—row labeled “Net.” The total number of observations equals 16,731,112. The random trend model adds an individual-specific time trend to the base and full models.

    • View popup
    Table A1

    Sample Restrictions on Original Data

    Observations
    Original data47,520,802
    Firm size ≥2029,717,803
    Tenure restrictions (24 months)22,124,787
    Nonmissing values of the covariates19,783,524
    Age of the worker 16–6419,625,875
    Base wage >80% of the legal minimum wage19,578,581
    Excluding observations for displaced workers before or after the 20-year window around the displacement18,901,738
    Restricting to the largest connected set18,157,787
    Excluding singletons16,731,112
    • Notes: The largest connected set is the largest group of connected worker–firm pairs and job titles. Singletons are groups with only one observation.

    • View popup
    Table A2

    Sample Descriptive Statistics by Displacement Status, 1986–2016

    NondisplacedDisplaced
    Total monthly wages (2016 euros)1,3371,035
    Minimum monthly wage (2016 euros)530530
    Age (in years)4037
    Tenure (in years)168
    Female (%)4147
    Education (%):
    Less than basic school32
    Basic school3132
    Preparatory1826
    Lower secondary1919
    Upper secondary1815
    College116
    Firm size (no. coworkers)1,784520
    Industry (%):
    Manufacturing4253
    Construction69
    Wholesale and retail trade1919
    Transports104
    Financial services1311
    Education/health104
    Observations15,683,0821,048,030
    • Notes: This table reports summary statistics (mean) for the sample. The units are in parentheses.

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    • JHRv56n03_RaposoPortugalCarneiro_OnlineApp.pdf
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Journal of Human Resources: 56 (3)
Journal of Human Resources
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1 Jul 2021
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The Sources of the Wage Losses of Displaced Workers
Pedro Raposo, Pedro Portugal, Anabela Carneiro
Journal of Human Resources Jul 2021, 56 (3) 786-820; DOI: 10.3368/jhr.56.3.0317-8667R3

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The Sources of the Wage Losses of Displaced Workers
Pedro Raposo, Pedro Portugal, Anabela Carneiro
Journal of Human Resources Jul 2021, 56 (3) 786-820; DOI: 10.3368/jhr.56.3.0317-8667R3
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  • Article
    • Abstract
    • I. Introduction
    • II. Wage Setting in the Portuguese Labor Market
    • III. The Data
    • IV. Econometric Framework
    • V. Empirical Results
    • VI. Robustness Checks
    • VII. Concluding Remarks
    • Appendix 1
    • Appendix 2 Estimating a Multiway, High-Dimensional Fixed-Effects Regression Model
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