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Open Access

High Sex Ratios and Household Portfolio Choice in China

View ORCID ProfileWenchao Li, View ORCID ProfileChangcheng Song, View ORCID ProfileShu Xu and View ORCID ProfileJunjian Yi
Journal of Human Resources, March 2022, 57 (2) 465-490; DOI: https://doi.org/10.3368/jhr.57.2.1217-9245R2
Wenchao Li
Wenchao Li is an assistant professor at School of Business and Management, Shanghai International Studies University ()
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  • For correspondence: wenchaoli.1022{at}gmail.com
Changcheng Song
Changcheng Song is an associate professor of finance at Lee Kong Chian School of Business, Singapore Management University ()
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  • For correspondence: ccsong{at}smu.edu.sg
Shu Xu
Shu Xu is a professor of economics at School of Economics, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics ()
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  • For correspondence: xushu{at}swufe.edu.cn
Junjian Yi
Junjian Yi is a professor at National School of Development, Peking University, and an associate professor of economics at Department of Economics, Chinese University of Hong Kong ()
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    Figure 1

    Male Fraction of Births by Birth Order in China

    Notes: Data are from Ebenstein (2010). China introduced its family planing policy in 1979, which is represented by the vertical line. The figure shows that more boys than girls have been born in China over the past decades, but first births are exceptions.

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    Table 1

    Summary Statistics of Household Portfolio Choice Measures

    AllStock Market Participants
    MeanMin.Max.MeanMin.Max.
    (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)
    Panel A: Overall
    Stock market participation

    0.056

    (0.230)

    0

    1

    1

    (0)

    1

    1

    Stock share

    0.018

    (0.115)

    0

    1

    0.400

    (0.363)

    0

    1

    Risky-asset market participation

    0.084

    (0.278)

    0

    1

    1

    (0)

    1

    1

    Risky-asset share

    0.032

    (0.153)

    0

    1

    0.489

    (0.367)

    0

    1

    Observations4,363245
    Sex Ratio < Q1Sex Ratio > Q3
    Meanp-ValueMeanp-Value
    First SonFirst Daughter(H1: SD ≠ 0)First SonFirst DaughterH1: SD ≠ 0)
    (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)
    Panel B: First-Son versus First-Daughter Families
    Stock market participation

    0.043

    (0.202)

    0.046

    (0.210)

    0.807

    0.059

    (0.236)

    0.032

    (0.177)

    0.018

    Stock share

    0.020

    (0.117)

    0.020

    (0.126)

    0.933

    0.023

    (0.125)

    0.013

    (0.104)

    0.092

    Risky-asset market participation

    0.064

    (0.245)

    0.068

    (0.252)

    0.813

    0.097

    (0.296)

    0.050

    (0.218)

    <0.01

    Risky-asset share

    0.030

    (0.149)

    0.036

    (0.166)

    0.566

    0.046

    (0.182)

    0.022

    (0.129)

    <0.01

    Observations469457507560
    • Notes: Data on county-level sex ratios are from the 2010 China population census. Data on other variables are from the 2013 CHFS. Panel A is based on our sample of CHFS households. Stock-market participants are families that hold a stock account. Panel B is based on four subgroups: first-son and first-daughter families in counties with a balanced sex ratio (smaller than the first quartile Q1, 1.09) or a high sex ratio (larger than the third quartile Q3, 1.22). Statistics are weighted by CHFS sampling weights. Standard deviations are given in parentheses.

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    Table 2

    Balance Test: First-Son versus First-Daughter Families

    Mean
    AllFirst SonFirst DaughterDifference, SDp-Value (H1: Diff. ≠ 0)
    (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)
    First son

    0.518

    (0.500)

    Father’s age

    39.52

    (5.719)

    39.54

    (5.769)

    39.51

    (5.666)

    0.030

    [0.173]

    0.655

    Father’s schooling years

    9.170

    (3.313)

    9.149

    (3.263)

    9.193

    (3.367)

    −0.044

    [0.104]

    0.530

    Father’s hukou (urban = 1)

    0.227

    (0.419)

    0.226

    (0.418)

    0.229

    (0.420)

    −0.003

    [0.014]

    0.845

    Father’s political status (CCP = 1)

    0.114

    (0.318)

    0.104

    (0.305)

    0.126

    (0.332)

    −0.022

    [0.010]

    0.129

    Mother’s age

    37.62

    (5.815)

    37.74

    (5.852)

    37.50

    (5.775)

    0.240

    [0.176]

    0.331

    Mother’s schooling years

    8.347

    (3.659)

    8.328

    (3.548)

    8.367

    (3.776)

    −0.039

    [0.115]

    0.820

    Mother’s hukou (urban = 1)

    0.215

    (0.411)

    0.217

    (0.412)

    0.213

    (0.409)

    0.004

    [0.013]

    0.132

    Mother’s political status (CCP = 1)

    0.031

    (0.173)

    0.031

    (0.173)

    0.031

    (0.174)

    −0.000

    [0.006]

    0.882

    First child’s age

    11.68

    (4.105)

    11.69

    (4.057)

    11.67

    (4.158)

    0.020

    [0.127]

    0.856

    Region of residence (urban = 1)

    0.485

    (0.500)

    0.476

    (0.500)

    0.496

    (0.500)

    −0.020

    [0.015]

    0.319

    Ethnicity (minority = 1)

    0.128

    (0.334)

    0.126

    (0.332)

    0.130

    (0.336)

    −0.004

    [0.010]

    0.640

    Observations4,3632,2462,117
    • Notes: Data are from the 2013 CHFS. Statistics are based on our sample of CHFS households. Statistics are weighted by CHFS sampling weights. Standard deviations are given in parentheses. Standard errors are given in square brackets.

    • View popup
    Table 3

    Baseline Results: Sex Ratios and Household Portfolio Choice

    StocksAll Risky Assets
    Dependent VariableParticipationShareParticipationShare
    (1)(2)(3)(4)
    First son (β1)

    −0.229***

    (0.062)

    −0.069**

    (0.032)

    −0.089

    (0.080)

    −0.011

    (0.045)

    Sex ratio (β2)

    −0.027

    (0.179)

    −0.001

    (0.075)

    −0.085

    (0.199)

    0.038

    (0.097)

    First son × sex ratio (β3)

    0.326**

    (0.160)

    0.168*

    (0.101)

    0.555***

    (0.206)

    0.227**

    (0.115)

    Percentage increase: sex ratio+1 SD52.281.759.464.2
    Observations4,3634,3634,3634,363
    R-squared0.2710.1940.3040.256
    Dependent variable mean0.0560.0180.0840.032
    ModelLPMOLSLPMOLS
    Other controlsYesYesYesYes
    First son × other controlsYesYesYesYes
    Prefecture fixed effectsYesYesYesYes
    First son × prefecture fixed effectsYesYesYesYes
    • ↵Notes: Data on county-level sex ratios are from the 2010 China population census. Data on other variables are from the 2013 CHFS. Results are estimated using Equation 1 based on our sample of CHFS households. Percentage increase with a one standard deviation increase in the sex ratio is 0.09 β3/sample mean. Other controls include various parental and household characteristics—both parents’ age, education, hukou, political status, and occupational dummies, plus age of the first child, region of residence, and ethnicity. Interactions of the first-son dummy with these variables as well as prefecture fixed effects are also controlled for. Regressions are weighted by CHFS sampling weights. Standard errors clustered at the county level are given in parentheses. *p < 0.1, **p < 0.05, ***p < 0.01.

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    Table 4

    Robustness: Addressing Issues Related to Son-Preferring Fertility Stopping Rules

    Dependent variableStock-Market Participation
    (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)
    First son (β1)

    −0.235***

    (0.068)

    −0.387***

    (0.104)

    −0.515***

    (0.154)

    Proportion of sons (β1)

    −0.310***

    (0.076)

    −0.330***

    (0.082)

    Having any son (β1)

    −0.199***

    (0.073)

    −0.228***

    (0.077)

    Sex ratio (β2)

    −0.021

    (0.180)

    −0.188

    (0.390)

    −0.099

    (0.309)

    −0.098

    (0.223)

    −0.092

    (0.222)

    −0.176

    (0.290)

    −0.174

    (0.288)

    First son × sex ratio (β3)

    0.321**

    (0.161)

    0.657*

    (0.386)

    0.705*

    (0.403)

    Proportion of sons × sex ratio (β3)

    0.460**

    (0.232)

    0.455*

    (0.231)

    Having any son × sex ratio (β3)

    0.464*

    (0.280)

    0.462*

    (0.279)

    # children

    −0.004

    (0.006)

    −0.007

    (0.006)

    −0.013

    (0.009)

    First son × # children

    0.002

    (0.009)

    Proportion of sons * # children

    0.008

    (0.012)

    Having any son × # children

    0.013

    (0.011)

    Observations4,3632,7262,2164,3634,3634,3634,363
    R-squared0.2710.2360.2460.2640.2640.2100.210
    Other controlsYesYesYesYesYesYesYes
    Son × other controlsYesYesYesYesYesYesYes
    Prefecture fixed effectsYesYesYesYesYesYesYes
    Son × prefecture fixed effectsYesYesYesYesYesYesYes
    • ↵Notes: Data on county-level sex ratios are from the 2010 China population census. Data on other variables are from the 2013 CHFS. Results are estimated using Equation 1 based on our sample of CHFS households. Column 2 includes one-child families. Column 3 includes one-child families with a child above the age of six. Other controls include various parental and household characteristics—both parents’ age, education, hukou, political status, and occupational dummies, plus age of the first child, region of residence, and ethnicity. Interactions of the first-son dummy with these variables as well as prefecture fixed effects are also controlled for. Regressions are weighted by CHFS sampling weights. Standard errors clustered at the county level are given in parentheses. *p<0.1, **p< 0.05, ***p<0.01.

    • View popup
    Table 5

    Robustness: Addressing Potential Endogeneity of Local Sex Ratios

    Dependent VariableStock-Market Participation
    (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)
    First son (β1)

    −0.228***

    (0.063)

    −0.221***

    (0.072)

    −0.251***

    (0.064)

    −0.251***

    (0.093)

    −0.314***

    (0.089)

    −0.170

    (0.221)

    Sex ratio (β2)

    −0.022

    (0.176)

    −0.034

    (0.168)

    −0.032

    (0.181)

    −0.023

    (0.172)

    0.052

    (0.175)

    −0.068

    (0.155)

    First son × sex ratio (β3)

    0.337**

    (0.160)

    0.344**

    (0.167)

    0.320*

    (0.187)

    0.339**

    (0.170)

    0.273*

    (0.157)

    0.334*

    (0.179)

    Average household wealth, k

    0.022

    (0.028)

    −0.007

    (0.031)

    First son × average household wealth

    −0.015

    (0.048)

    −0.060

    (0.039)

    Average household income, k

    0.002*

    (0.001)

    0.003***

    (0.001)

    First son × average household income

    −0.000

    (0.001)

    −0.003***

    (0.001)

    Gender wage differential, m-f, k

    0.001

    (0.005)

    −0.015***

    (0.005)

    First son × gender wage differential

    0.011**

    (0.005)

    0.031***

    (0.006)

    Proportion with insurance

    0.212

    (0.155)

    0.091

    (0.187)

    First son × proportion with insurance

    0.067

    (0.174)

    0.088

    (0.193)

    Average # children

    −0.083**

    (0.035)

    −0.039

    (0.042)

    First son × average # children

    0.066

    (0.043)

    0.035

    (0.047)

    Hausman test p-value0.7800.9930.6530.8770.5680.671
    Observations4,3634,3634,3634,3634,3634,363
    R-squared0.2700.2730.2730.2720.2710.328
    Other controlsYesYesYesYesYesYes
    First son × other controlsYesYesYesYesYesYes
    Prefecture fixed effectsYesYesYesYesYesYes
    First son × prefecture fixed effectsYesYesYesYesYesYes
    • ↵Notes: Data on county-level sex ratios are from the 2010 China population census. Data on other variables are from the 2013 CHFS. Results are estimated using Equation 1 based on our sample of CHFS households. The null hypothesis of the Hausman test is that the effect of high sex ratios is equal to that in the baseline—Column 1 of Table 3. Other controls include various parental and household characteristics—both parents’ age, education, hukou, political status, and occupational dummies, plus age of the first child, region of residence, and ethnicity. Interactions of the first-son dummy with these variables, as well as prefecture fixed effects, are also controlled for. Regressions are weighted by CHFS sampling weights. Standard errors clustered at the county level are given in parentheses. *p< 0.1, **p<0.05, ***p< 0.01.

    • View popup
    Table 6

    A Survey-Based Measure of Risk-Taking and Subgroup Analysis

    Risk-Taking Measure
    Dependent VariableAllBottom 25%MiddleTop 25%
    (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)
    First son × sex ratio

    0.666**

    (0.267)

    1.633**

    (0.754)

    1.767**

    (0.797)

    0.743*

    (0.435)

    0.548

    (0.433)

    −0.217

    (0.836)

    −0.650

    (0.938)

    First son × sex ratio × skewness

    0.093

    (0.085)

    −0.050

    (0.047)

    −0.134

    (0.124)

    Observations4,3631,1401,1402,1132,1131,1101,110
    R-squared0.3070.3720.3770.2360.2380.3990.401
    Dependent variable mean0.1310.1420.1420.1280.1280.1230.123
    ModelLPMLPMLPMLPMLPMLPMLPM
    First sonYesYesYesYesYesYesYes
    Sex ratioYesYesYesYesYesYesYes
    First son × skewnessYesYesYes
    Sex ratio × skewnessYesYesYes
    Other controlsYesYesYesYesYesYesYes
    First son × other controlsYesYesYesYesYesYesYes
    Prefecture fixed effectsYesYesYesYesYesYesYes
    First son × prefecture fixed effectsYesYesYesYesYesYesYes
    • ↵Notes: Data on county-level sex ratios are from the 2010 China population census. Data on other variables are from the 2013 CHFS. Results are estimated using Equation 1 based on our sample of CHFS households and income subgroups. Other controls include various parental and household characteristics—both parents’ age, education, hukou, political status, and occupational dummies, plus age of the first child, region of residence, and ethnicity. Interactions of the first-son dummy with these variables, as well as prefecture fixed effects, are also controlled for. Regressions are weighted by CHFS sampling weights. Standard errors clustered at the county level are given in parentheses. *p<0.1, **p<0.05, ***p<0.01.

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High Sex Ratios and Household Portfolio Choice in China
Wenchao Li, Changcheng Song, Shu Xu, Junjian Yi
Journal of Human Resources Mar 2022, 57 (2) 465-490; DOI: 10.3368/jhr.57.2.1217-9245R2

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High Sex Ratios and Household Portfolio Choice in China
Wenchao Li, Changcheng Song, Shu Xu, Junjian Yi
Journal of Human Resources Mar 2022, 57 (2) 465-490; DOI: 10.3368/jhr.57.2.1217-9245R2
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  • Article
    • Abstract
    • I. Introduction
    • II. Background: High Sex Ratios in China and the Resulting High Marriage Expenditure
    • III. Data
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