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Research ArticleArticles
Open Access

The Missing Men

World War I and Female Labor Force Participation

Jörn Boehnke and View ORCID ProfileVictor Gay
Journal of Human Resources, July 2022, 57 (4) 1209-1241; DOI: https://doi.org/10.3368/jhr.57.4.0419-10151R1
Jörn Boehnke
Jörn Boehnke is an assistant professor in the Graduate School of Management at the University of California, Davis, CA and an associate research scholar in the Center of Mathematical Sciences and Applications at Harvard University, Cambridge, MA.
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Victor Gay
Victor Gay is an assistant professor of economics at the Toulouse School of Economics and a research fellow at the Institute for Advanced Study in Toulouse, University of Toulouse Capitole, Toulouse, France.
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Article Figures & Data

Figures

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  • Figure 1
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    Figure 1

    Adult Sex Ratio (1900–2012)

    Notes: This figure displays the sex ratio among French adults aged 15–50. Data are from the censuses 1900–2012. Vertical lines indicate WWI (1914–1918) and WWII (1939–1945).

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    Figure 2

    WWI Military Death Rates and Changes in FLFP

    Notes: FLFP denotes female labor force participation rates in percent. Each dot represents one of 87 départements. The vertical axis represents changes in female labor force participation rates in percentage points between 1901 and 1911 in Panel A and between 1911 and 1921 in Panel B.

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    Figure 3

    Distribution of Military Death Rates across 87 Départements

    Notes: Data are missing for Bas-Rhin, Haut-Rhin, and Moselle. Shaded areas in the Northeast experienced war combats on their soil. Darker lines delineate military regions.

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    Figure 4

    Trends in Female Labor Force Participation

    Notes: This figure displays absolute and relative trends in female labor force participation rates between 1901 and 1936 across groups of 29 départements with high, medium, and low military death rates. In Panel B female labor force participation rates are normalized to 100 in 1911.

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    Figure 5

    Impact of WWI Military Fatalities on FLFP

    Notes: This figure reports year-specific OLS coefficients from estimating Specification 2. The dependent variable is female labor force participation (FLFP) in percent. Controls include the share of rural population in percent and the share of population born in the département in percent. Vertical lines represent 95 percent confidence intervals. “Exclude high group” corresponds to estimates when excluding the 29 départements with highest military death rates (among 87 départements).

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    Figure 6

    Military Fatalities by Month of Birth, Classes 1911–1914

    Notes: Each dot represents the number of military fatalities relative to soldiers born during the same month of the same year. Black lines are regression lines for each class.

  • Figure 7
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    Figure 7

    Impact of WWI Military Fatalities on Adult Sex Ratios

    Notes: This figure reports year-specific OLS coefficients from estimating Specification 3. The dependent variable is the sex ratio among adults aged 20–49 in percentage points. Shaded areas represent 95 percent confidence intervals.

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    Figure 8

    Labor during World War I (August 1914-July 1919)

    Notes. Female denotes employed women; Male, employed men; Firms, operating firms. Data are relative to the industrial sector. Levels are normalized to 100 in July 1914.

Tables

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    Table 1

    Average Female Labor Force Participation Rates (1901–1936)

    1901190619111921192619311936
    FLFP (net of farm owners)32.932.731.435.029.930.128.1
    FLFP (uncorrected)45.051.951.555.749.649.447.0
    Difference12.119.220.120.719.719.318.9
    • Notes: This table reports average female labor force participation (FLFP) rates in percent across 87 départements.

    • View popup
    Table 2

    Military Death Rates and Pre-War Characteristics

    Dependent Variable: Military Death Rate
    (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)
    FLFP−0.15***
    [0.05]
    0.03
    [0.03]
    −0.06
    [0.07]
    −0.01
    [0.07]
    Rural0.12***
    [0.01]
    0.12***
    [0.01]
    0.11***
    [0.03]
    0.16***
    [0.04]
    Born in dép.0.12***
    [0.03]
    0.13***
    [0.03]
    0.15***
    [0.04]
    0.11*
    [0.06]
    Other characteristicsNoNoNoYesYes
    Military region FENoNoNoNoYes
    Départements8787878787
    Adj. R20.1200.7390.7390.7900.838
    • Notes: This table reports OLS estimates from regressing military death rates on pre-war département characteristics measured in 1911, otherwise noted. FLFP denotes female labor force participation in percent; Rural, the share of rural population in percent; Born in dép, the share of population born in the département in percent. Other characteristics consist of population in thousands, population density per km2, average age, average height of 1911 conscripts in cm, the share of active population in industry in percent, km of roads and km of rails per km2 in 1913, the share of cultivated land in 1912 in percent, personal wealth in 1908, banking deposits, and direct taxes in francs per inhabitant, the share of 1911 conscripts that could read and write and with primary education in percent, the minimum distance to the war in km, the share of students in religious schools in 1906 in percent, and turnout in 1914 in percent. Robust standard errors are in brackets. Significance:

    • ↵* p < 0.10,

    • ↵*** p < 0.01.

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    Table 3

    Impact of WWI Military Fatalities on FLFP

    Dependent Variable: FLFPMLFP
    (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)
    Death rate × post0.35***
    [0.07]
    0.37***
    [0.08]
    0.40**
    [0.16]
    0.21***
    [0.08]
    0.23**
    [0.09]
    0.38***
    [0.07]
    0.45***
    [0.10]
    0.28***
    [0.07]
    0.55***
    [0.13]
    0.48***
    [0.07]
    −0.01
    [0.06]
    ControlsYesNoYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYes
    SpecificationBaselineNo controlsDép.-specific trendsRegion × year FEResidual measureEmpl.Female farm ownerNo war dép.Corr. measurePop. weightsMale placebo
    Difference from baseline0.000.02
    [0.10]
    0.05
    [0.17]
    −0.15
    [0.10]
    −0.13
    [0.11]
    0.03
    [0.10]
    0.10
    [0.12]
    −0.07
    [0.10]
    0.20
    [0.15]
    0.13
    [0.10]
    −0.36***
    [0.09]
    Observations609609609609609609522532609609609
    Départements8787878787878776878787
    Within R20.5810.5780.8240.7980.5500.5840.6060.6330.5690.6360.675
    1911 mean31.431.431.431.431.431.151.530.531.435.793.2
    • Notes: This table reports OLS coefficients from estimating Specification 1. The dependent variable is female labor force participation rate (FLFP) in percent except in Column 6, where it is female employment rate in percent, and in Column 11, where it is male labor force participation rate (MLFP) in percent. All regressions include département and year fixed effects. Controls include the share of rural population in percent and the share of population born in the département in percent. Census years are 1901, 1906, 1911, 1921, 1926, 1931, and 1936. Column 3 includes département-specific linear time trends, and Column 4 includes region-by-year fixed effects. In Column 5, military death rates are purged from pre-war trends between 1901 and 1911 in FLFP and rurality. In Column 7, female labor force participation includes female farm owners and excludes census year 1901. In Column 8, all 11 départements that experienced war combats on their territory are excluded. In Column 9, military death rates are corrected for pre-war migration patterns (see Online Appendix E). In Column 10, départements’ relative population sizes in 1911 are used as weights. Standard errors are in brackets and are clustered at the département level. Significance:

    • ↵** p < 0.05,

    • ↵*** p < 0.01.

    • View popup
    Table 4

    Instrumental Variables Estimates

    Dependent Variable: Military Death Rate × Post
    (1)(2)(3)(4)
    Panel A: First Stage
    Ratio class 1911–1912 × post−0.28***
    [0.05]
    −0.17***
    [0.03]
    Ratio class 1912–1913 × post−0.39***
    [0.05]
    −0.31***
    [0.06]
    Ratio class 1913–1914 × post−0.31***
    [0.10]
    −0.20***
    [0.05]
    Controls Yes Yes Yes Yes
    Observations 609 609 609 609
    Départements  87  87  87  87
    Dependent Variable: FLFP
    OLSIV
    (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)
    Panel B: Second Stage
    Death rate × post0.35***
    [0.07]
    0.80***
    [0.22]
    0.48***
    [0.14]
    0.37**
    [0.18]
    0.54***
    [0.13]
    Instruments  No  1  2  3  1–3
    Controls  Yes  Yes  Yes  Yes  Yes
    Difference with OLS0.000.44*
    [0.23]
    0.13
    [0.16]
    0.02
    [0.19]
    0.19
    [0.15]
    Observations  609  609  609  609  609
    Départements   87   87   87   87   87
    Within R20.5810.5070.5750.5810.567
    KPW F-statistic 29.159 55.847 10.638 27.350
    • Notes: This table reports first-stage coefficients in Panel A, and IV coefficients from estimating Specification 1 with class ratios as instruments in Panel B. Instrument 1 is the ratio of the class 1911 to the class 1912; Instrument 2, the ratio of the class 1912 to the class 1913; Instrument 3, the ratio of the class 1913 to the class 1914. All regressions include département and year fixed effects and controls for the share of rural population in percent and the share of population born in the département in percent. FLFP denotes female labor force participation in percent. All regressions contain 87 départements. Census years are 1901, 1906, 1911, 1921, 1926, 1931, and 1936. The KPW F-statistic is the Kleibergen–Paap Wald rk F-statistic. Standard errors are in brackets and are clustered at the département level. Significance:

    • ↵* p < 0.10,

    • ↵** p < 0.05,

    • ↵*** p < 0.01.

    • View popup
    Table 5

    The Marriage Market Channel

    Panel A: Marital StatusPanel B: Labor Force Participation
    Dependent Variable:Single Women/All Women
    (1)
    Widowed Women/All Women
    (2)
    Married Women/All Women
    (3)
    Active Women/All Women
    (4)
    Active Widows/All Women
    (5)
    Active Widows/Widows
    (6)
    Death rate × post0.23***
    [0.04]
    0.07***
    [0.02]
    −0.31***
    [0.05]
    0.26***
    [0.07]
    0.12***
    [0.03]
    0.54***
    [0.11]
    ControlsYesYesYesYesYesYes
    Observations522522522261261261
    Départements878787878787
    Within R20.6930.8640.7630.6040.3250.609
    Pre-war mean22.35.671.432.95.734.5
    • Notes: This table reports OLS coefficients from estimating Specification 4 in Panel A and Specification 1 in Panel B. All regressions include département and year fixed effects, and controls for the share of rural population in percent and the share of population born in the département in percent. Shares are in percent and are defined with respect to the female population aged 20–49 in Panel A and the female population aged 15 and older in Panel B. Census years are 1901, 1911, 1921, 1926, 1931, and 1936 in Panel A, and 1901, 1926, and 1936 in Panel B. Standard errors are in brackets and are clustered at the département level. Significance:

    • ↵*** p < 0.01.

    • View popup
    Table 6

    Impact ofWWI Military Fatalities on Wages, Foreign Labor, and Capital

    Panel A: Manufacturing Log WagesPanel B: Domestic Log WagesPanel C: Foreign LaborPanel D: Engine Power
    Ironer
    (1)
    Seamstress
    (2)
    Milliner
    (3)
    Cook
    (4)
    Housekeeper
    (5)
    LFP
    (6)
    Share Pop.
    (7)
    Log Total
    (8)
    Per Worker
    (9)
    Death rate × post−0.011***
    [0.004]
    −0.011***
    [0.003]
    −0.007**
    [0.004]
    −0.006***
    [0.002]
    −0.002*
    [0.001]
    −0.11
    [0.22]
    −0.09
    [0.06]
    0.03**
    [0.01]
    6.58***
    [2.37]
    ControlsYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYes
    Observations355355355171171261261261261
    Départements878787878787878787
    Within R20.9510.9530.9510.9000.9480.4680.6460.8580.249
    Pre-war levels0.210.230.250.200.1335.02.2629,78235.76
    • Notes: This table reports OLS coefficients from estimating Specification 1. All regressions include département and year fixed effects, and controls for the share of rural population in percent and the share of population born in the département in percent. The dependent variable is log hourly wage rate in Columns 1–5, labor force participation rates of foreigners in percent in Column 6, the share of foreigners in the population in percent in Column 7, the log total power of engines in kW in Column 8, and the power of engines per 100 workers in the industrial sector in kW in Column 9. Survey years are 1901, 1906, 1911, 1921, and 1926 in Columns 1–3; 1913 and 1921 in Columns 4 and 5; 1911, 1921, and 1926 in Columns 6 and 7; and 1901, 1906, and 1926 in Columns 8 and 9. Standard errors are in brackets and are clustered at the département level. Significance:

    • ↵* p < 0.10,

    • ↵** p < 0.05,

    • ↵*** p < 0.01.

    • View popup
    Table 7

    Military Fatalities and Female Wartime Employment

    Panel A: Death RatePanel B: FLFP
    (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)
    Wartime employment−0.00
    [0.01]
    −0.00
    [0.01]
    Wartime employment × post−0.00
    [0.01]
    −0.01
    [0.03]
    −0.00
    [0.01]
    −0.02
    [0.04]
    Death rate × post0.35***
    [0.07]
    0.35***
    [0.07]
    0.35***
    [0.07]
    0.36***
    [0.07]
    Wartime employment × death rate × post0.00
    [0.00]
    0.00
    [0.00]
    Reference date07–191707–191807–191707–191707–191807–1918
    ControlsYesYesYesYesYesYes
    Observations8787609609609609
    Départements878787878787
    Adj./Within R20.7450.7460.5820.5820.5810.582
    • Notes: Panel A reports OLS coefficients from regressing military death rates on changes in female employment in percent between July 1914 and July 1917 in Column 1 and between July 1914 and July 1918 in Column 2. Panel B reports OLS coefficients from estimating Specification 1. All regressions include controls for the share of the rural population in percent and the share of the population born in the département in percent. In Panel B, regressions include département and year fixed effects. FLFP denotes female labor force participation in percent. In Panel A, we report the adjusted R2, and robust standard errors are in brackets. In Panel B, we report the within R2, and standard errors are in brackets and are clustered at the département level. Significance:

    • ↵*** p < 0.01.

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Journal of Human Resources: 57 (4)
Journal of Human Resources
Vol. 57, Issue 4
1 Jul 2022
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The Missing Men
Jörn Boehnke, Victor Gay
Journal of Human Resources Jul 2022, 57 (4) 1209-1241; DOI: 10.3368/jhr.57.4.0419-10151R1

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The Missing Men
Jörn Boehnke, Victor Gay
Journal of Human Resources Jul 2022, 57 (4) 1209-1241; DOI: 10.3368/jhr.57.4.0419-10151R1
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  • Article
    • ABSTRACT
    • I. Introduction
    • II. Contributions and Related Literature
    • III. Data and Historical Context
    • IV. The Missing Men and Female Labor Force Participation
    • V. Mechanisms
    • VI. Conclusion
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