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Research ArticleArticles
Open Access

The Long-Run Effects of Cesarean Sections

View ORCID ProfileAna Costa-Ramón, View ORCID ProfileMika Kortelainen, View ORCID ProfileAna Rodríguez-González and View ORCID ProfileLauri Sääksvuori
Journal of Human Resources, November 2022, 57 (6) 2048-2085; DOI: https://doi.org/10.3368/jhr.58.2.0719-10334R1
Ana Costa-Ramón
Ana Costa-Ramón is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Economics at the University of Zurich and at the Jacobs Center for Productive Youth Development.
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Mika Kortelainen
Mika Kortelainen is a Professor of Health Economics at the University of Turku and Chief Researcher at the VATT Institute for Economic Research.
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Ana Rodríguez-González
Ana Rodríguez-González is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Economics at Lund University ().
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  • For correspondence: ana.rodriguez_gonzalez{at}nek.lu.se
Lauri Sääksvuori
Lauri Sääksvuori is an Academy of Finland Research Fellow at the Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare and Professor of Practice at the University of Turku.
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  • Figure 1
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    Figure 1 Predicted Probability of Unplanned C-Section

    Notes: Panel A presents the predicted probability of unplanned C-section by hour and type of day. Panel B shows the predicted probability of unplanned C-section by shift and type of day. Both figures adjust for hospital, month, and year-of-birth fixed effects. Pre-leisure days include working days that precede a Finnish public holiday or a weekend, while working days include the rest of working days. Sample is restricted to singleton first births that are either unscheduled C-sections or vaginal births.

  • Figure 2
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    Figure 2 Instrument and Baseline Characteristics

    Notes: The figure represents the coefficients and 95 percent confidence interval from separate regressions of each predetermined variable (standardized to have mean 0 and standard deviation 1) on the instrument (Normal shift * Preleisure), controlling for normal shift time, pre-leisure day, and hospital, year, and month-of-birth fixed effects. Sample is restricted to singleton births that are either unscheduled C-sections or vaginal births that take place on working days.

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    Figure 3
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    Figure 3 OLS Estimation by Group of Controls

    Notes: These figures plot the cesarean section coefficients and their 95 percent confidence interval from the OLS estimation of the association between C-section and the probability of being diagnosed with asthma, atopic diseases, type 1 diabetes, or obesity before age five. In each figure, each coefficient corresponds to a different specification with varying sets of controls that are sequentially added: no controls ; the list of controls included in at least 50 percent of medical studies; controls included in at least 20 percent of them (more information in Online Appendix Table A9); the rest of maternal, pregnancy, and delivery characteristics included in our usual group of controls (described in Section III.B); hospital fixed effects; year fixed effects, month fixed effects; excluding planned C-sections, and finally including family fixed effects.

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    Figure 4 Bivariate Probit Estimation—Child Diagnoses by Age

    Notes: The figure plots the marginal effects from the bivariate probit estimation of the effect of unplanned C-section on the probability of each diagnosis by age, with our usual specification. All regressions include hospital, year, and month-of-birth fixed effects and the full set of controls as described in Section III.B.1.

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    Figure 5 Differences-in-Differences Analysis—Child Diagnoses by Age

    Notes: The figure plots the coefficient of unplanned C-section for each diagnosis by age in family fixed effects models. All regressions include family, hospital, year, and month-of-birth fixed effects and the full set of controls as described in Section III.B.2.

Tables

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    Table 1

    First Stage

    Unplanned C-Section
    (1)(2)
    Normal shift0.015***0.017***
    (0.001)(0.001)
    Pre-leisure day0.001−0.002
    (0.002)(0.002)
    Normal shift × Pre-leisure0.015***0.014***
    (0.003)(0.003)
    Observations392,561392,561
    ControlsNoYes
    Mean of Y0.1450.145
    First-stage F−statistic26.65025.209
    Adjusted R20.0080.070
    • ↵Notes: This table shows estimates from the first stage (see Equation 2). All specifications include hospital, year, and month-of-birth fixed effects. Controls: gender, maternal age, marital status, nationality, mother occupation (long-term unemployed, high-skilled white collar, low-skilled white collar, manual worker, student, other), whether mother smoked during pregnancy, high/low number of prenatal visits, IVF, gestation weeks, induced labor, prostaglandin pre-induction, epidural or laughing gas anesthesia. Robust standard errors in parentheses. Significance: *p < 0.10, **p < 0.05, ***p < 0.01, standard p-values.

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    Table 2

    Neonatal Outcomes

    Low Apgar 1
    (1)
    ICU
    (2)
    Assisted Ventilation
    (3)
    Neonatal Mortality
    (4)
    OLS0.068***0.118***0.027***0.002***
    (0.001)(0.001)(0.001)(0.000)
    [0.002][0.002][0.002][0.002]
    Mean of Y0.0490.0870.0090.001
    Observations1,119,4671,120,9321,120,9321,119,842
    2SLS−0.018−0.088−0.0060.006
    (0.140)(0.170)(0.061)(0.023)
    [1.000][0.999][1.000][1.000]
    Mean of Y0.0660.1060.0120.002
    Observations392,017392,560392,560392,173
    Bivariate probit0.104***0.163***0.017***−0.001
    (0.008)(0.009)(0.005)(0.005)
    [0.023][0.001][0.297][0.927]
    Mean of Y0.0660.1060.0120.002
    Observations392,017392,560392,560392,173
    Differences-in-differences0.053***0.111***0.036***0.001
    (0.007)(0.007)(0.004)(0.002)
    [0.000][0.000][0.000][0.919]
    Mean of Y0.0380.0700.0060.001
    Observations644,551645,292645,292644,746
    First-stage F-statistic24.99625.21625.21626.007
    • ↵Notes: This table shows the estimates of the marginal effect of an unplanned C-section on different neonatal health indicators by OLS, 2SLS, bivariate probit, and differences-in-differences estimation (see Equations 1, 2, 3, and 6). Specifications as detailed in Section III.B, with the full set of fixed effects and controls. The sample for bivariate probit and 2SLS includes only singleton first births; for differences-in-differences, the sample includes both first and second singleton births from families where the first child is born by vaginal delivery (and the second is born by vaginal delivery or unplanned C-section). The OLS estimation includes both first and higher order singleton births. Robust standard errors (in parentheses) in first three panels, and standard errors clustered at the family level in the differences-in-differences panel. First-stage F-statistic from 2SLS and bivariate probit specifications. Significance: *p < 0.10, **p < 0.05, ***p < 0.01, standard p-values. Romano–Wolf multiple hypothesis adjusted p-values in square brackets.

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    Table 3

    Child Diagnoses by Age

    By Age:Type 1 DiabetesAsthmaObesityAtopy
    510510510510
    OLS0.0000.0000.007***0.010***0.000***0.002***0.002**0.004***
    (0.000)(0.000)(0.001)(0.001)(0.000)(0.000)(0.001)(0.001)
    [0.585][0.361][0.002][0.002][0.008][0.002][0.042][0.006]
    Mean of Y0.0030.0060.0450.0710.0010.0040.0440.061
    Observations807,035556,009807,035556,009807,035556,009807,035556,009
    2SLS0.089**0.0620.074−0.1210.0010.0000.0220.110
    (0.036)(0.044)(0.113)(0.139)(0.013)(0.034)(0.112)(0.127)
    [0.072][0.786][0.996][0.990][1.000][1.000][1.000][0.990]
    Mean of Y0.0030.0060.0400.0700.0010.0040.0410.058
    Observations296,998217,768296,998217,768296,998217,768296,998217,768
    Bivariate probit0.0030.0030.031***0.0150.0010.003−0.0080.021
    (0.002)(0.004)(0.009)(0.015)(0.001)(0.003)(0.010)(0.013)
    [0.504][0.727][0.005][0.727][0.572][0.727][0.727][0.413]
    Mean of Y0.0030.0060.0400.0700.0010.0040.0410.058
    Observations296,998217,768296,998217,768296,998217,768296,998217,768
    Differences-in-differences−0.001−0.0010.014**0.0110.0010.0010.003−0.001
    (0.001)(0.003)(0.006)(0.009)(0.001)(0.002)(0.005)(0.007)
    [0.919][0.933][0.005][0.287][0.532][0.933][0.919][0.933]
    Mean of Y0.0030.0060.0450.0700.0010.0040.0440.060
    Observations510,075366,885510,075366,885510,075366,885510,075366,885
    First-stage F-statistic25.72529.54625.72529.54625.72529.54625.72529.546
    • ↵Notes: This table shows the estimates of the effect of an unplanned C-section on the probability of the child having each diagnosis by age by OLS, 2SLS, bivariate probit (marginal effects), and differences-in-differences estimation (see Equations 1, 2, 3, and 6). Specifications as detailed in Section III.B, with the full set of fixed effects and controls. The sample for bivariate probit and 2SLS includes only singleton first births; for differences-in-differences, both first and second singleton births from families where the first child is born by vaginal delivery (and the second is born by vaginal delivery or unplanned C-section). The OLS estimation includes both first and higher order singleton births. Robust standard errors (in parentheses) in the first three panels, and standard errors clustered at the family level in the differences-in-differences panel. First-stage F-statistic from 2SLS specifications. Significance: *p < 0.10, **p < 0.05, ***p < 0.01, standard p-values. Romano–Wolf multiple hypothesis adjusted p-values in square brackets.

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    Table 4

    Exclusion Restriction Validity Checks

    Planned BirthShoulder DystociaBrachial Plexus InjuryLength of StayMaternal Complications
    Normal shift0.130***0.000−0.000**0.031*0.001*
    (0.001)(0.000)(0.000)(0.018)(0.000)
    Pre-leisure day0.013***0.000−0.0000.0220.000
    (0.001)(0.000)(0.000)(0.024)(0.000)
    Normal shift * Pre-leisure0.001−0.000*−0.0000.005−0.001*
    (0.002)(0.000)(0.000)(0.037)(0.001)
    Observations1,095,9431,095,9431,095,94353,633392,560
    Adjusted R20.0830.0030.0020.2250.009
    ControlsYesYesYesYesYes
    Mean of Y0.2360.0010.0025.2260.010
    First-stage F-statistic0.3352.9040.1130.0192.936
    • ↵Notes: This table shows the results of regressing different proxy measures of quality of care on the instrument (Normal shift * Pre-leisure), controlling for normal shift, pre-leisure day, hospital, year, and month-of-birth fixed effects and the full set of controls as described in Equation 2. The outcome in Column 1 is a dummy equal to one if the birth was planned (planned C-section or induction) and zero otherwise. In Column 2, the dependent variable is a dummy for shoulder dystocia during childbirth, and in Column 3, a dummy for brachial plexus injury. In Column 4, the dependent variable is mother’s length of stay (in days), and the sample is restricted to mothers who delivered by C-section. Finally, in Column 5, the outcome is a dummy equal to one if the mother is diagnosed with any complication related to the puerperium within one week from the delivery (ICD-10 Codes: O85–O92). Here the sample is restricted to single births, unscheduled C-sections, and vaginal births that take place on working days. Robust standard errors in parentheses. Significance: *p < 0.10, **p < 0.05, ***p < 0.01.

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    Table 5

    Validity Checks

    Birth WeightAsthma at Age 5 for Sample
    Thursdays vs. FridaysExcluding Inductions
    Bivariate probit0.0230.036***
    (0.015)(0.010)
    Mean of Y0.0400.039
    Observations117,826246,933
    Differences-in-differences−5.4160.017**
    (7.617)(0.007)
    Mean of Y3,566.1170.044
    Observations645,134440,291
    • ↵Notes: Column 1 shows a placebo regression where the outcome is birth weight. Columns 2 and 3 gives the results from the bivariate probit (top) and the differences-in-differences (bottom) estimation of the impact of unplanned C-section on the probability of asthma diagnosis by age five restricting the sample to births taking place on Thursdays or Fridays (Column 2) or to noninduced births (Column 3). Specifications are as detailed in Sections III.B.1 and III.B.2, with the full set of fixed effects and controls. Robust standard errors (in parentheses) for bivariate probit results, and standard errors clustered at the family level in the differences-in-differences panel. Significance: *p < 0.10, **p < 0.05, ***p < 0.01.

    • View popup
    Table 6

    Validity of Differences-in-Differences

    Neonatal HealthDiagnosis by Age 5
    Low ApgarICUAssisted VentilationNeonatal MortalityType 1 DiabetesAsthmaObesityAtopy
    Instrumented0.060***0.020**0.001−0.001−0.001−0.004−0.001−0.006
    (0.009)(0.009)(0.003)(0.002)(0.002)(0.008)(0.001)(0.009)
    Mean of Y0.0280.0610.0050.0010.0030.0440.0010.044
    Observations534,119534,689534,689534,264428,392428392428,392428,392
    Risk pregnancy0.0010.0160.0030.001−0.0010.002−0.0000.005
    (0.007)(0.010)(0.004)(0.002)(0.002)(0.009)(0.001)(0.009)
    Mean of Y0.0350.0620.0050.0010.0030.0440.0010.044
    Observations608,688609,368609,368608,909482,536482,536482,536482,536
    • ↵Notes: This table shows the results from sibling fixed effect models, following the specification in Equation 6, for two different samples of children: in the top panel, for a sample of sibling pairs where the first child was born by eutocic birth, and the second child is born either by eutocic or instrumented vaginal birth; in the bottom panel, for vaginally delivered sibling pairs where the first child did not have a high-risk pregnancy and the second child had a low- or high-risk pregnancy. The top panel coefficient represents the change in the health gap between siblings in families where the second child was born by instrumented vaginal delivery, while the bottom panel coefficient represents the same for families where the second child had a high-risk pregnancy. All specifications include family, hospital, year, and month-of-birth fixed effects and the controls described in Section III.B.2. Standard errors are clustered at the family level. Significance: *p < 0.10, **p < 0.05, ***p < 0.01.

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Journal of Human Resources: 57 (6)
Journal of Human Resources
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The Long-Run Effects of Cesarean Sections
Ana Costa-Ramón, Mika Kortelainen, Ana Rodríguez-González, Lauri Sääksvuori
Journal of Human Resources Nov 2022, 57 (6) 2048-2085; DOI: 10.3368/jhr.58.2.0719-10334R1

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The Long-Run Effects of Cesarean Sections
Ana Costa-Ramón, Mika Kortelainen, Ana Rodríguez-González, Lauri Sääksvuori
Journal of Human Resources Nov 2022, 57 (6) 2048-2085; DOI: 10.3368/jhr.58.2.0719-10334R1
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