Article Figures & Data
Figures
- Figure 1
Annual Migration Rates by Lagged Employment Status and Migration Distance
Source: 2004 and 2008 panels of the public-use Survey of Income and Program Participation. Figures include all non-college graduates aged 18–55 who have completed their schooling. Employment is defined as full-time employment.
- Figure 2
Counterfactual Changes in Migration by Origin City, Prior Employment Status, and Unobserved Worker Type
Notes: Each panel corresponds to a different origin city and unobserved type. Bar heights refer to the change in the out-migration rate from the specified location in response to the listed counterfactual. All figures are for 25-year-olds who were not born in the origin location. “High” refers to a location in the 75th percentile of the given distribution; “low” refers to the 25th percentile. All characteristics not set to “high” or “low” are set to the median. The earnings shock (↓ w) corressponds to the 70th percentile of the crosslocation distribution in earnings AR(1) shock deviations. The unemployment shock corresponds to the jump from 2008 to 2009 for the average location in the data. To focus the results, each candidate location has median AR(1) parameters for both earnings and employment. Birth location is held fixed in all counterfactuals. Individual characteristics are set to the average for all 25-year-olds, conditional on employment status.
Tables
Variable Mean SD Log monthly earnings (2000 dollars)a 7.96 0.52 Work experience (years) 22.60 9.49 Age (years) 42.29 9.76 Lives in location in birth state 0.74 0.44 Lives in location in birth census division 0.75 0.43 Number of persons 16,648 Number of observations 50,415 Notes: For complete sample selection rules, see Online Appendix Table A1.
↵a. Conditional on being employed full-time with monthly earnings between $400 and $22,000. This variable has 29,238 person-year observations. The earnings variable is spatially deflated to account for differences in cost of living according to the procedure outlined in Online Appendix A.7.
Number of persons (age 18–55) 16,648 Movers 568 Movers (%) 3.41 Moves 653 Moves per mover 1.15 Repeat moves (% of all moves) 13.38 Return moves (% of all moves) 8.98 Notes: Moves are defined as changing locations as specified in the model.
Prev. Employed Prev. Nonemployed Variable Coeff. SE Coeff. SE Constant 0.7243*** 0.0071 0.1976*** 0.0059 Experience 0.0123*** 0.0005 0.0077*** 0.0004 Experience2/100 -0.0200*** 0.0012 -0.0142*** 0.0011 Lagged state unempl. rate -0.0038*** 0.0006 -0.0060*** 0.0006 Mover dummy -0.1219*** 0.0080 0.0468*** 0.0076 Race × gender dummies ✓ ✓ Observations 83,324 78,057 Notes: Dependent variable is an indicator for being employed full-time in the current period. Sample includes all non-college graduates aged 18–55 in the 2004 and 2008 panels of the public-use SIPP who have completed their schooling.
* p < 0.10,
** p < 0.05,
↵*** p < 0.01.
1 Type 2 Types Prev. Employed Prev. Nonemployed Prev. Employed Prev. Nonemployed Variable Coeff. SE Coeff. SE Coeff. SE Coeff. SE Constant 1.3056*** 0.2220 0.2566 0.2237 0.9812*** 0.2241 0.5035*** 0.2264 Experience 0.0858*** 0.0091 0.0359*** 0.0086 0.0847*** 0.0092 0.0366*** 0.0087 Experience2/100 -0.1228*** 0.0208 -0.0285 0.0219 -0.1224*** 0.0211 -0.0310 0.0221 Lagged local unempl. rate -0.0314*** 0.0104 -0.0922*** 0.0110 -0.0342*** 0.0105 -0.0937*** 0.0111 Mover dummy -0.9257*** 0.1280 0.1929 0.1557 -1.0483*** 0.1300 0.2359 0.1572 Unobserved type 1 0.7958*** 0.0400 -0.5751*** 0.0429 Location fixed effects ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ Observations 30,898 9,949 30,898 9,949 Persons 12,013 6,087 12,013 6,087 Notes: Reported numbers are coefficients from logit regressions conditional on previous employment status.
* p < 0.10,
** p < 0.05,
↵*** p < 0.01.
1 Type 2 Types Parameter Coeff. SE Coeff. SE Constant 7.5708*** 0.0673 7.2074*** 0.0470 Experience 0.0432*** 0.0015 0.0411*** 0.0010 Experience2/100 -0.0595*** 0.0033 -0.0575*** 0.0023 Unobserved type 1 0.6773*** 0.0039 Location-time fixed effects ✓ ✓ Persons 11,404 11,404 Observations 29,238 29,238 Notes: Reported numbers are coefficients from an OLS log earnings regression conditional on full-time employment and observing earnings. See footnote (a) of Table 1 for complete details on this subsample.
* p < 0.10,
** p < 0.05,
↵*** p < 0.01.
1 Type 2 Types Parameter Symbol Coeff. SE Coeff. SE Job & location preferences Expected log earnings (γ0) 0.916** 0.397 1.001** 0.412 Home production benefit (γ1) -0.902 3.477 11.333*** 3.453 Search cost (γ2) -1.195*** 0.069 -1.008*** 0.070 Birth state bonus (γ3) 0.207*** 0.072 0.210*** 0.072 Birth division bonus (γ4) -0.002 0.073 -0.003 0.073 Switching costs Fixed cost (θ12 – θ8) 0.335** 0.127 0.910*** 0.126 Age (θ13 – θ9) -0.095*** 0.006 -0.106*** 0.006 Age2/100 (θ14 – θ10) 0.109*** 0.008 0.121*** 0.008 Unobserved type 1 (θ15 – θ11) -0.746*** 0.019 Moving costs Fixed cost (θ0) -3.148*** 0.361 -3.165*** 0.362 Distance (1,000 miles) (θ1) -2.063*** 0.078 -2.066*** 0.078 Distance2 (θ2) 0.369*** 0.025 0.369*** 0.025 Age (θ3) -0.094*** 0.018 -0.101*** 0.018 Age2/100 (θ4) 0.056** 0.023 0.063*** 0.023 Employedt–1 (θ5) 0.197* 0.110 0.252** 0.110 Unemployedt–1 (θ6) -0.230* 0.128 -0.239* 0.129 Unobserved type 1 (θ7) 0.256*** 0.045 Pr(type = 1) (πr) N/A 0.4926 Observations 50,415 50,415 Persons 16,648 16,648 Discount factor (β) 0.9 0.9 Notes: Reported numbers are flow utility parameter estimates from the dynamic choice model detailed in Online Appendix Section A.1. Estimates of location-specific amenities (the αβs) are not reported due to Census Bureau rules regarding disclosure risk.
↵* p < 0.10,
↵** p < 0.05,
↵*** p < 0.01.
- Table 7
Sample Moving Costs and Amenity Values in Net Present Value and Percentage of Flow Earnings
Monetary Value Type 1 Type 2 Utility Component Employed Unemployed Employed Unemployed Panel A: Net Present Value (US$) Moving costs Fixed cost of moving -105,095 -127,749 -116,777 -140,023 Average mover, 500-mile move -394,446 -436,458 -416,095 -459,270 Average mover, New York to Los Angeles -570,671 -622,158 -597,202 -650,115 Young mover, New York to Los Angeles -312,595 -342,163 -327,841 -358,186 Amenities SD of local amenities 23,356 Range of local amenities 91,603 Birth state bonus 57,328 Panel B: Percentage of Flow Earnings Moving costs Fixed cost of moving -30.6 -37.3 -34.1 -40.8 Average mover, 500-mile move -101.9 -112.8 -107.5 -118.7 Average mover, New York to Los Angeles -147.5 -160.8 -154.4 -168.0 Young mover, New York to Los Angeles -116.9 -128.0 -122.6 -134.0 Amenities SD of local amenities 7.7 Range of local amenities 30.2 Birth state bonus 18.9 Notes: Panel A expresses the monetary values in terms of net present value, while Panel B expresses monetary values in terms of the percentage of flow earnings. All results are derived from the parameter estimates in Table 6. The average mover is age 39, and a young mover is age 25. The great-circle distance from New York to Los Angeles is 2,446 miles. For complete details on how these values are calculated, see Online Appendix Section A.4.
2004–2008 2009–2013 All t–1 Employment Status Data Model Data Model Data Model Panel A: Migration Probabilities by Calendar Time and t–1 Employment Status Employed 1.30% 1.33% 1.28% 1.24% 1.29% 1.29% Unemployed 1.21% 1.25% 1.15% 1.10% 1.19% 1.19% Out of labor force 1.88% 1.73% 1.52% 1.66% 1.69% 1.70% Overall 1.14% 1.27% 1.38% 1.22% 1.25% 1.25% Employed Unemployed Out of LF All Age Range Data Model Data Model Data Model Data Model Panel B: Migration Probabilities by Age and t–1 Employment Status 18–25 2.31% 2.11% 2.54% 3.62% 3.37% 3.31% 2.52% 2.84% 26–35 1.90% 1.65% 2.31% 2.32% 1.97% 2.13% 2.00% 1.86% 36–45 1.00% 1.20% 1.57% 1.42% 1.23% 1.30% 1.13% 1.25% 46–55 0.80% 0.82% 1.09% 0.85% 0.88% 0.84% 0.86% 0.83% Employed Unemployed Out of LF All Distance (Miles) Data Model Data Model Data Model Data Model Panel C: Migration Probabilities by Distance and t–1 Employment Status 0–500 0.72% 0.70% 0.68% 0.65% 0.92% 0.94% 0.72% 0.70% 501–1,000 0.31% 0.35% 0.29% 0.33% 0.41% 0.45% 0.31% 0.35% 1,001–1,500 0.13% 0.13% 0.10% 0.12% 0.20% 0.17% 0.13% 0.13% 1,501–2,000 0.07% 0.05% 0.06% 0.05% 0.11% 0.07% 0.07% 0.05% 2,001+ 0.06% 0.05% 0.07% 0.04% 0.05% 0.06% 0.06% 0.05% Notes: All numbers in this table correspond to migration probabilities (multiplied by 100 and expressed as percentages). Data probabilities consist of conditional means of an indicator for migration. Model probabilities consist of conditional means of the predicted probability of leaving the current location.
Period t Data Model Period t–1 E U N E U N Panel A: Employment Transitions Conditional on Migrating Employed (E) 70.98% 22.69% 6.33% 71.99% 22.26% 5.75% Unemployed (U) 41.40% 46.50% 12.10% 45.06% 44.77% 10.17% Out of labor force (N) 16.52% 17.39% 66.09% 13.88% 12.58% 73.54% Panel B: Employment Transitions Conditional On Staying Employed (E) 86.92% 9.86% 3.23% 86.45% 9.83% 3.71% Unemployed (U) 36.33% 49.75% 13.93% 38.09% 49.60% 12.31% Out of labor force (N) 10.81% 10.41% 78.78% 10.56% 12.22% 77.21% Notes: All numbers in this table correspond to employment transition probabilities (multiplied by 100 and expressed as percentages). Data probabilities consist of conditional means of employment transition by migration status. Model probabilities consist of conditional means (by employment status) of the predicted conditional probability of making an employment transition (conditional on leaving or staying).
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