ABSTRACT
Adverse local labor market shocks such as those generated by exposure of local industries to international trade have impacts on high school enrollment and completion that are theoretically ambiguous. Incentives to stay in school increase when employment prospects are weak, yet public resources for local schools may also shrink. This work demonstrates that, while high school enrollment rates increase significantly, high school degree attainment does not show commensurate growth. “Outmigration” of young adults and changes in the timing of degree receipt reconcile these measures. In addition, high school attainment effects are likely attenuated by declines in local resources per student.
- Received January 2021.
- Accepted January 2021.
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In this issue
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- Article
- ABSTRACT
- I. Introduction
- II. Evidence of the Impact of Trade Exposure on Labor Market and Educational Outcomes
- III. Measuring Secondary Educational Attainment in Local Markets
- IV. Estimating the Effects of Import Exposure on High School Enrollment and Graduation
- V. Empirical Estimates of Enrollment and High School Attainment Impacts
- VI. Conclusion and Takeaways for Future Analysis
- Footnotes
- References
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