Article Figures & Data
Figures
- Figure 1
Map of Study Area, Surveyed Households, Activated Fault Line and Epicenter, and Nonactivated Fault Lines
Notes: This map illustrates the location of all 2,456 households that completed the detailed household survey (X’s), the location of the activated Balakot-Bagh Fault (thick dashed line), and the earthquake epicenter (black triangle). Current district boundaries are shown as thin solid black lines (Neelum District was part of Muzaffarabad District until 2005). Fault lines that were not activated in the earthquake are shown as thin solid gray lines.
- Figure 2
Distance Distribution of Survey Households to the Activated Fault Line
Notes: This figure illustrates the distance distribution of the 2,456 households from the detailed survey to the activated fault line (histogram), as the number of households in each 5-km bin, as well as the 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th, and 95th percentiles of the distribution (box plot).
- Figure 3
Immediate and Extended Earthquake Deaths and Destruction
Notes: These plots illustrate the proportion of homes reported destroyed in both long census and detailed survey measures; the proportion of public infrastructure noted destroyed in village survey; and the proportion of census records reported deceased during and/or after the earthquake, as a non-parametric function of distance to the activated fault line. Histograms show relative density as the number of observation units (households, villages, or individuals) in each 2-km bin.
- Figure 4
Pre-Earthquake Assets Comparison
Notes: This figure tabulates the proportion of households that self-reported ownership rates (prior to the earthquake) of the assets in our wealth index are compared between households near (<20 km) and far (20 km+) from the fault line.
- Figure 5
Self-Reported Receipts of Cash Aid after the Earthquake
Notes: This figure illustrates self-reported aid received by households as a function of distance to the activated fault line, split into total aid (full recovery period) and immediate aid (nonrebuilding aid) for all households, households with a death, and households that reported home destruction. The histogram shows relative density as the number of households in each 2-km bin.
- Figure 6
Weight and Height Outcomes for Children
Notes: As a function of age at the time of the earthquake and distance to the activated fault line, these graphs compare the current weight-for-age (Panel A, in both z-scores and kilograms) and height-for-age (Panel B, in both z-scores and centimeters) of children covered in the detailed survey between groups near and far from the fault line, using nonparametric specifications. The histogram shows relative density as the number of children at each age. Shaded areas show 95 percent confidence intervals.
- Figure 7
Education Outcomes
Notes: As a function of age at the time of the earthquake, graphs in Panel A compare the current school enrollment and academic performance of children covered in the detailed survey between groups near and far from the fault line, using nonparametric specifications. Test score results are presented as normalized IRT scores within the observed population with mean zero and standard deviation one. The histogram shows relative density as the number of children at each age. Shaded areas show 95 percent confidence intervals. Panel B graphs illustrate the test scores of boys and girls separately by distance to the activated fault line using nonparametric local polynomial estimation. Test score results are presented as normalized IRT scores within the observed population with mean zero and standard deviation one. The histogram shows relative density as the number of children in each 2-km bin. Shaded areas show 95 percent confidence intervals.
- Figure 8
Time Out of School after the Earthquake
Notes: As a nonparametric function of distance to the activated fault line, the first panel of this graph illustrates the varying average time out of school taken by children who later ended up in the top and bottom half of the test score distribution. The histogram shows relative density as the number of households in each 2-km bin. The second panel shows the distribution of time taken out of school by all children.
- Figure 9
Test Scores and Height, according to Maternal Education
Notes: Panel A illustrates the test scores of children whose mothers have or have not completed primary education, separately, by distance to the activated fault line using nonparametric local polynomial estimation. Test score results are presented as normalized IRT scores within the observed population with mean zero and standard deviation one. The histogram shows relative density as the number of children in each 2-km bin. Shaded areas show 95 percent confidence intervals. For children under the age of three during the earthquake, Panel B illustrates the height-for-age z-scores of children whose mothers have or have not completed primary education, separately, by distance to the activated fault line using nonparametric local polynomial estimation. The histogram shows relative density as the number of children in each 2-km bin. Shaded areas show 95 percent confidence intervals.
Tables
Mean
(1)SD
(2)25th
(3)Median
(4)75th
(5)N
(6)Source of Data
(7)Household Geography Distance to fault line (km) 17.5 14.1 5.6 13.6 24.3 28,297 Standard census Distance to epicenter (km) 36.4 17.5 25.1 35.2 48.0 28,297 Standard census Closest fault line (km) 2.8 2.5 0.8 2.0 4.1 28,297 Standard census Mean slope of union council (degrees) 21.1 6.7 16.9 22.2 26.1 98 GIS–Union council level Abbottabad District 20.6% 2,456 Household survey Bagh District 17.5% 2,456 Household survey Mansehra District 27.6% 2,456 Household survey Muzaffarabad District 34.2% 2,456 Household survey Household Death, Destruction, and Aid Death in household during earthquake 6.1% 28,297 Standard census Home damaged or destroyed 91.1% 8,350 Extended census and survey Home destroyed 57.2% 8,351 Extended census and survey Received any form of aid 66.8% 2,456 Household Survey Received any cash aid 46.7% 2,456 Household survey Cash aid amount (PKR) 116,182 102,982 0 125,000 175,000 2,456 Household survey Household Socioeconomic Characteristics Household size 6.1 2.7 4.0 6.0 8.0 2,455 Household survey Total annual food expenditure (PKR) 83,208 88,161 37,500 62,280 98,805 2,456 Household survey Total annual nonfood expenditure (PKR) 84,207 109,511 26,787 46,183 93,035 2,456 Household survey Pre-earthquake asset index 0.00 1.00 −0.55 −0.09 0.57 2,456 Household survey Number of children under age 6 during earthquake 1.0 1.1 0.0 1.0 2.0 2,456 Household survey Female head of household 10.0% 2,456 Household survey Individual Characteristics Male 52% 152,435 Standard census and survey Age 24.0 18.4 10.0 20.0 35.0 152,435 Standard census and survey In utero to age 11 during earthquake 33% 152,435 Standard census and survey Children In Utero–Age 11 during Earthquake In utero 9.0% 4,665 Household survey Age 0–2 25.7% 4,665 Household survey Age 3+ 65.3% 4,665 Household survey Child’s height (cm) 117.5 22.3 101.0 119.0 132.0 4,096 Household survey Child’s weight (kg) 25.6 9.3 18.0 24.0 31.0 4,097 Household survey School enrollment during survey (age 1 + during earthquake) 86.1% 3,589 Household survey Private school enrollment rate during survey 21.7% 3,089 Household survey Parents of Children In Utero–Age 11 during Earthquake Father completed primary school 57.3% 4,379 Household survey Mother completed primary school 22.2% 4,387 Household survey Mother’s age 37.425 8.4 31.0 37.0 42.0 4,387 Household survey Mother’s height (cm) 157.238 7.8 152.0 157.0 162.0 4,239 Household survey Mother’s school access instrument 0.464 0.5 0.0 0.0 1.0 4,155 Household survey Father’s age 43.182 10.0 37.0 42.0 49.0 4,379 Household survey Father’s height (cm) 168.579 6.9 165.0 170.0 173.0 3,876 Household survey Notes: Distance to fault line and epicenter are calculated using the Haversine formula. The standard census is conducted among all households in the final sample of 126 villages. The extended census is conducted among a randomly selected subset of 6,455 households. The household survey is conducted among a randomly selected subset of 2,456 households. The household asset index is the first principal component of household assets recorded in the household survey, among beds/charpais, tables, chairs, fans, sewing machines, books, refrigerators, radio/cassette recorder/CD players, televisions, VCR/VCDs, watches, guns, plows, tractors, tube well/hand pumps, other agricultural machinery, other agricultural hand tools/saws, motorcycle/scooters, car/taxi/vehicles, bicycles, cattle, goats, chickens, and mobile phones.
Distance to Fault Line Coefficient
(1)N
(2)R2
(3)Mean
(4)MDE
(5)Villages (1998 Village Census) Total population −18.377
19.625126 0.186 1,988.222 55.414 Male population −9.412
10.037126 0.182 989.214 28.342 Female population −8.965
9.623126 0.189 999.008 27.172 Muslim population −18.273
19.543126 0.186 1,981.738 55.182 Literacy rate −0.000
0.001125 0.401 0.457 0.003 Proportion with primary education −0.002*
0.001126 0.354 0.389 0.002 Proportion females with secondary education −0.000
0.000126 0.143 0.025 0.001 Average household size −0.024**
0.011126 0.252 6.848 0.031 Number of permanent houses −0.755
1.259120 0.200 127.500 3.555 Number of houses with electricity −2.324
2.028112 0.130 189.670 5.731 Number of houses with potable water −1.269
0.971100 0.167 60.800 2.749 Village infrastructure index −0.013
0.009126 0.154 0.397 0.025 Adults 18+ during Survey (2009 Household Census and Survey) Male height (cm) 0.020
0.0272,735 0.020 167.512 0.075 Female height (cm) 0.046**
0.0232,834 0.007 157.164 0.064 Male age (living) 0.008
0.01036,755 0.001 36.554 0.028 Female age (living) 0.026**
0.01033,273 0.002 35.052 0.028 Males completed primary school (living) −0.000
0.00144,495 0.025 0.636 0.003 Females completed primary school (living) −0.002
0.00140,474 0.024 0.315 0.004 Male age (deceased) 0.268***
0.0791,459 0.066 56.883 0.222 Female age (deceased) 0.151*
0.088950 0.115 45.609 0.248 Males completed primary school (deceased) 0.000
0.00575 0.079 0.280 0.013 Females completed primary school (deceased) −0.004
0.00471 0.074 0.239 0.011 Male age (all) 0.018*
0.01038,214 0.001 37.330 0.029 Female age (all) 0.024**
0.00934,223 0.002 35.345 0.026 Males completed primary school (all) −0.000
0.00144,570 0.025 0.635 0.003 Females completed primary school (all) −0.002
0.00140,545 0.026 0.315 0.004 Households (2009 Household Survey) Recall Electricity in house −0.009***
0.0022,456 0.108 0.854 0.007 Water in house −0.003
0.0022,456 0.042 0.445 0.006 Permanent house −0.003
0.0022,456 0.103 0.380 0.006 Distance to closest market (min.) 0.237
0.3362,452 0.089 54.675 0.948 Distance to closest water source (min.) 0.056
0.0512,456 0.030 9.660 0.145 Distance to closest medical facility (min.) −0.086
0.2902,444 0.069 57.861 0.820 Distance to closest private school (min.) −0.112
0.2512,372 0.039 44.565 0.709 Distance to closest government school (min.) 0.022
0.0852,454 0.035 21.047 0.239 Measured Distance to closest water source (km) 0.052
0.0352,456 0.215 3.056 0.098 Distance to closest health clinic (km) 0.122***
0.0432,456 0.344 5.361 0.122 Distance to closest private school (km) 0.102**
0.0452,456 0.255 3.355 0.127 Distance to closest boys school (km) 0.090*
0.0502,456 0.251 1.131 0.141 Distance to closest girls school (km) 0.009
0.0232,456 0.047 1.290 0.064 Notes: This table reports the results from a regression specification on pre-earthquake characteristics by distance to the activated fault line. The coefficient on distance to the fault line is reported, along with the number of observations, the R-squared, and the overall mean of the variable. All regressions include controls for distance to the earthquake epicenter, local slope, and district fixed effects. Measured distance to water is replaced by zero when recall survey notes that water was available in the house. For all regressions, we report the absolute value of the minimum detectable effect size at 80 percent power, calculated as the center of the t-distribution for which 80 percent of the probability mass falls outside the critical 5 percent value determined by the standard error and degrees of freedom of the corresponding point estimate.
Distance to Fault Line (km) Coefficient
(1)N
(2)R2
(3)Mean
(4)MDE
(5)Panel A: Household Socioeconomic Characteristics Asset index (PCA) (post-quake) −0.004
0.0042,456 0.122 0.002 0.011 Household infrastructure index −0.024***
0.0062,456 0.168 0.000 0.016 Permanent house (post-quake) −0.005**
0.0022,456 0.089 0.635 0.006 Electricity −0.008***
0.0022,456 0.142 0.904 0.006 Water in house (post-quake) −0.005*
0.0032,456 0.057 0.498 0.007 Log consumption per capita 0.003
0.0032,456 0.072 10.038 0.007 Panel B: Access to Public Infrastructure Log dist. to gov. school (min) −0.004
0.0032,454 0.039 2.781 0.009 Log dist. to market (min) 0.004
0.0062,452 0.119 3.625 0.016 Log dist. to distr. office (min) −0.005
0.0052,449 0.240 4.834 0.013 Log dist. to medical (min) −0.003
0.0052,444 0.048 3.789 0.014 Log dist. to private school (min) −0.006
0.0062,369 0.037 3.396 0.016 Panel C: Adult Health Adult height 0.034
0.0226,907 0.295 145.318 0.063 Adult weight 0.027
0.0206,907 0.188 45.592 0.057 Adult height (18–24) 0.011
0.0331,717 0.248 130.253 0.092 Adult weight (18–24) 0.029
0.0261,717 0.188 34.121 0.074 Notes: This table reports the results from a regression specification on post-earthquake characteristics by distance to the activated fault line. The coefficient on distance to the fault line is reported, along with the number of observations, the R-squared, and the overall mean of the variable. All regressions include controls for distance to the earthquake epicenter, local slope, distance to the nearest fault line, and district fixed effects. The adult health regressions include age and sex indicator variables. Measured distance to water is replaced by zero when recall survey notes that water was available in the house. For all regressions, we report the absolute value of the minimum detectable effect size at 80 percent power, calculated as the center of the t-distribution for which 80 percent of the probability mass falls outside the critical 5 percent value determined by the standard error and degrees of freedom of the corresponding point estimate.
Weight (z-Score)
(1)Height (z-Score)
(2)School Enrollment
(3)Grade Attainment
(4)Test Scores (IRT)
(5)Test Scores + Disruption
(6)Test Scores + Gender
(7)Test Scores + Age
(8)Distance from fault line (km) −0.007*
(0.004)0.002
(0.005)0.000
(0.001)0.003
(0.008)0.009**
(0.004)0.007*
(0.003)0.008
(0.005)0.013***
(0.005)Weeks out of school after earthquake −0.004*
(0.002)In utero * Distance from fault line (km) 0.003
(0.006)0.036**
(0.017)Age 0–2 * Distance from fault line (km) 0.005
(0.005)0.015*
(0.009)Male −0.041
(0.048)0.034
(0.082)0.077***
(0.016)0.120
(0.107)0.067
(0.044)−0.000
(0.045)0.041
(0.074)0.065
(0.044)Distance from fault line (km) * Male 0.001
(0.004)Distance from fault line (km) * Age 6 −0.005
(0.004)Distance from fault line (km) * Age 7 −0.003
(0.005)Distance from fault line (km) * Age 8 −0.007
(0.005)Distance from fault line (km) * Age 9 0.005
(0.005)Distance from fault line (km) * Age 10 −0.009*
(0.004)Distance from fault line (km) * Age 11 −0.008
(0.006)Dependent variable mean −0.944 −2.155 0.903 4.173 0.131 0.229 0.131 0.131 Regression R2 0.247 0.077 0.071 0.335 0.089 0.102 0.089 0.094 Number of observations 4,002 4,001 1,874 1,875 1,875 1,547 1,875 1,875 Geographic controls X X X X X X X X Age dummies X X X X X X X X Notes: This table reports regression results for effects of the earthquake on early childhood development during the follow-up survey four years later, as measured by the coefficient of current outcomes on distance to the activated fault line. The dependent variables are indicated in column names. The regressions include controls for distance to the earthquake epicenter, local slope, distance to the nearest fault line, and district fixed effects, as well as indicator variables for the age of the child. Significance:
↵* p < 0.1,
↵** p < 0.05,
↵*** p < 0.01.
Test Scores Height-for-Age: In Utero and Age 0–2 Maternal Education
(1)Maternal Education Interaction
(2)Maternal Education
(3)Maternal Education Interaction
(4)Distance from fault line (km) 0.008**
(0.004)0.009**
(0.004)0.017
(0.012)0.017
(0.013)Mother completed primary school 0.299***
(0.051)0.422***
(0.078)0.103
(0.227)0.050
(0.335)Mother’s education * Distance −0.007**
(0.004)0.003
(0.017)Male 0.066
(0.043)0.065
(0.043)−0.151
(0.167)−0.151
(0.167)Dependent variable mean 0.131 0.131 −1.676 −1.676 Regression R2 0.105 0.107 0.030 0.030 Number of observations 1,875 1,875 1,423 1,423 Geographic controls X X X X Age dummies X X X X Notes: This table reports regression results for effects of the earthquake on early childhood development during the follow-up survey four years later, as measured by the coefficient of current outcomes on distance to the activated fault line. These regressions specifically examine the potential for mitigation by maternal education and include the level effect and the fault line distance interaction term. The dependent variables are indicated in column names. The regressions include controls for distance to the earthquake epicenter, local slope, distance to the nearest fault line, and district fixed effects, as well as indicator variables for the age of the child. Significance:
* p < 0.1,
** p < 0.05,
*** p < 0.01.
Test Scores Height-for-Age: In Utero and Age 0–2 IV Maternal Education
(1)IV Maternal Education Interaction
(2)IV Maternal Education
(3)IV Maternal Education Interaction
(4)Distance from fault line (km) 0.017***
(0.006)0.029***
(0.009)0.009
(0.024)−0.015
(0.039)Mother completed primary school 1.627***
(0.553)4.913**
(1.987)−3.488*
(1.906)−5.398
(3.857)Mother’s education * Distance −0.143**
(0.071)0.096
(0.133)Male 0.059
(0.047)0.041
(0.059)−0.231
(0.176)−0.257
(0.186)Dependent variable mean 0.135 0.135 −1.657 −1.657 Number of observations 1,723 1,723 1,275 1,275 Cragg–Donald F-statistic 39.905 8.644 36.570 11.925 Geographic controls X X X X Maternal controls X X X X Age dummies X X X X Notes: This table reports regression results for effects of the earthquake on early childhood development during the follow-up survey four years later, as measured by the coefficient of current outcomes on distance to the activated fault line. These regressions specifically examine the potential for mitigation by maternal education using an IV specification and include the level effect and the fault line distance interaction term, instrumented by the availability of a girls’ school in the mother’s birth village at enrollment age. The dependent variables are indicated in column names. The regressions include controls for distance to the earthquake epicenter, local slope, distance to the nearest fault line, and district fixed effects, as well as indicator variables for the age of the child. Significance:
↵* p < 0.1,
↵** p < 0.05,
↵*** p < 0.01.
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