Article Figures & Data
Figures
- Figure 1
Mean and Median Tenure with the Current Employer, 22–64-Year-Olds
Source: All estimates are from CPS and SIPP microdata, calculated by authors.
Notes: Estimates are for 22–64-year-olds, and exclude self-employed workers and unpaid family workers. Estimates of short tenure (<3 years) in CPS data are likely not strictly comparable in the earlier years of our sample (1983, 1987, 1991) relative to later years (1996+), which may affect comparability of average tenure (but probably not median tenure) in the CPS across these years; see text for more details. NBER recessions are shaded; estimates from the CPS (which were measured in January or February) are assigned to the first quarter of the year and estimates from the SIPP (annual averages) are assigned to the second quarter of the year.
- Figure 2
Distribution of Tenure over Time, 22–64-Year-Olds
Source: Authors’ calculations from CPS microdata. Bars show the fraction of the working population with reported tenure in the listed ranges of years of tenure.
Notes: Estimates are for 22–64-year-olds with positive reported tenure, and exclude self-employed workers and unpaid family workers.
- Figure 3
Average Tenure, Men and Women Age 22–64, Relative to 1983
Source: Authors’ calculations from microdata to the CPS occupational tenure supplements.
Notes: The figure plots year fixed effects from regressions where the dependent variable is the respondent’s tenure, and the right-hand-side variables are year fixed effects and listed controls. All estimates are relative to the estimated year effect in 1983 and are in percentage points. NBER recessions are shaded.
- Figure 4
Percent of Working Men Age 40–64 with Tenure of 20 Years or More, Relative to 1983
Source: Authors’ calculations from microdata to the CPS occupational tenure supplements. Notes: The figure plots year fixed effects from regressions where the dependent variable is whether the respondent had 20 or more years of tenure, and the right-hand-side variables are year fixed effects and listed controls. All estimates are relative to the estimated year effect in 1983, and are in percentage points. NBER recessions are shaded.
- Figure 5
Retention Rates for Men
Source: Survey of Income and Program Participation
Notes: Black line shows the fraction of men with 20+ years of tenure who remained working with the same employer in the subsequent four months. Dashed line shows the fraction of men age 50–64 who were not unemployed or out of the labor force four months later.
- Figure 6
Trends across Cohorts in Long Tenure at Later Career, and Unemployment and Separation Rates at Mid-Career (Men)
Source: For tenure estimates is the CPS tenure supplements from 1983, with cohort-specific long-tenure rates estimated as described in Footnote 25. The source for the unemployment rate and percent employed in the previous year but not employed currently is the March (ASEC) supplement to the CPS.
Notes: The figure shows three-cohort centered moving average to smooth through some volatility.
- Figure 7
Percent of Working Women Age 40–64 with Tenure of 20 Years or More, Relative to 1983
Note: See notes to Figure 4. Estimates are in percentage points.
- Figure 8
Trends across Cohorts in Long Tenure at Later Career, and Unemployment and Separation Rates at Mid-Career (Women)
Sources: Tenure estimates are from the CPS tenure supplements from 1983, with cohort-specific long tenure rates estimated as described in Footnote 23. The source for the unemployment rate and percent employed in the previous year but not employed currently is the March (ASEC) supplement to the CPS.
Notes: The figure shows three-cohort centered moving average to smooth through some volatility.
- Figure 9
Percent of Workers 22–64 with Tenure Less than One Year or One to Three Years
Source: Authors’ calculations from microdata to the CPS occupational tenure supplements.
Notes: Figure shows the percent of workers 22–64 with tenure in the listed tenure group, in percentage points. Self-employed and unpaid family workers are excluded. Further details are provided in the text. NBER recessions are shaded.
- Figure 10
Percent of Workers Age 22–64 with Tenure Less than One Year of Tenure, Relative to 1996
Source: Authors’ calculations from microdata to the CPS occupational tenure supplements.
Notes: The figure plots year fixed effects from regressions where the dependent variable is whether the respondent had less than one year of tenure, and the right-hand-side variables are year fixed effects and listed controls. All estimates are relative to the estimated year effect in 1996 and are in percentage points. NBER recessions are shaded.
- Figure 11
Decomposition of the Percent of New Hires in Total Employment, 22–64-Year-Olds in the SIPP
Source: Authors’ calculations from SIPP microdata.
Notes: NBER recessions are shaded. Figure shows 12-month moving averages of monthly transition rates (in percentage points). Gaps in series are because some SIPP panels ended before the next SIPP panels began. New hires are defined as workers with tenure at their employer of less than one quarter. Job-to-job are new hires that were employed three months earlier. Entrants are new hires that were not employed three months earlier.
- Figure 12
Percent of GSS Respondents Who Report They Feel Likely to Lose Their Job in the Next 12 Months, by Age
Source: is General Social Survey microdata 1977–2016, provided by National Opinion Research Center.
Notes: y-axis is share of (valid) respondents answering that they think it is likely or very likely they will lose their job in the next 12 months, on a four-point scale.
Tables
Men Women 22–39 40–49 50–54 55–64 22–39 40–49 50–54 55–64 Population Shares (Age 22–64, Employed) 1983, 1987, 1991 58.2 21.8 15.4 4.6 58.4 22.7 14.6 4.3 2002–2020 47.2 25.6 21.1 6.0 44.9 26.0 22.6 6.5 Change −10.9 3.8 5.7 1.4 −13.5 3.3 8.0 2.2 Percent with Tenure 20 Years or More 1983, 1987, 1991 0.6 20.1 39.1 39.1 0.4 7.5 16.4 23.8 2002–2020 0.4 13.0 27.8 31.3 0.3 9.7 21.2 26.7 Change −0.2 −7.1 −11.4 −7.8 −0.1 2.2 4.9 2.9 Average Tenure in Years 1983, 1987, 1991 4.7 10.8 15.4 16.4 3.9 7.4 10.4 12.3 2002–2020 4.1 8.9 12.4 13.5 3.8 7.9 11.1 12.6 Change −0.6 −1.9 −2.9 −3.0 −0.2 0.6 0.7 0.3 Source: Authors’ calculations from microdata to the CPS occupational tenure supplements.
Notes: Population shares are the share of the 22–64 employed population accounted for by the sex/age group (that is, cells add to one across the row). Self-employed and unpaid family workers are excluded. See text for discussion of the comparability of CPS data across these periods.
- Table 2
Change in the Percent of Working Men 40–64 with Tenure of 20 Years or More, by Industry and Occupation
Industry 1983, 1987 2010–2020 Change Manufacturing 38.5 26.7 −11.9 Public sector 31.2 30.5 −0.7 All other industries 25.4 18.2 −7.2 Occupation Nonroutine cognitive 31.4 21.7 −9.7 Routine cognitive 28.5 20.9 −7.6 Routine manual 31.6 20.5 −11.1 Nonroutine manual 18.6 17.5 −1.1 Education and marital status Noncollege 31.2 20.8 −10.4 Married 31.8 22.8 −8.9 Unmarried 27.2 16.2 −11.0 College 27.9 20.6 −7.4 Married 28.9 21.5 −7.3 Unmarried 21.3 17.5 −3.9 Source: Authors’ calculations from microdata to the CPS occupational tenure supplements.
Notes: Self-employed and unpaid family workers are excluded. Estimates are in percentage points.
- Table 3
Relationship between a Birth Cohort’s Long-Tenure Share at Age 55–64 and Unemployment Rates Earlier in Life
Dependent Variable: Percent of Cohort with 20+ Years of Tenure at Ages 55–64 (Men) RHS Variable for Indicated Age Groups Average Percent of Cohort Employed in Previous Year but Not Currently Unemployment Rate Average Percent of Cohort with Multiple Employers (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) Average percent of cohort Employed in prev. year but not currently, ages 35–54 −4.3 −5.8 −3.7 (0.6) (0.7) (0.8) Employed in prev. year but not currently, ages 25–34 0.0 −0.6 (0.4) (0.2) Employed in prev. year but not currently, ages 35–44 −2.2 −2.6 (0.6) (0.4) Employed in prev. year but not currently, ages 45–54 −1.9 −2.5 (0.7) (0.5) R2 0.65 0.66 0.65 0.69 0.34 Number of cohorts 35 35 35 35 35 Sources: For tenure estimates, we used the CPS tenure supplements from 1983 and later. For the unemployment, nonemployment, and multiple employer rates, we used the March (ASEC) supplement to the CPS.
Notes: Table shows coefficient estimates (and standard errors, in parentheses) from OLS regressions where the dependent variable is the percent of the cohort with 20 or more years of tenure at ages 55–64 (estimated as described in Footnote 26), and the independent variables are as listed in the table.
- Table 4
Change in the Percent of Working Women 40–64 with Tenure of 20 Years or More, by Industry, Occupation, Marital Status, and Education
Industry 1983, 1987 2010–2020 Change Manufacturing 15.8 19.8 4.0 Public sector 12.1 27.5 15.4 All other industries 10.4 15.9 5.5 Occupation Nonroutine cognitive 14.6 19.6 5.0 Routine cognitive 10.5 16.6 6.1 Routine manual 13.3 15.6 2.3 Nonroutine manual 7.0 10.8 3.8 Education and marital status Noncollege 11.3 16.0 4.7 Married 9.9 17.3 7.5 Unmarried 14.7 13.9 −0.8 College 11.6 17.3 5.7 Married 10.1 18.0 7.9 Unmarried 15.0 16.0 1.1 Source: Authors’ calculations from microdata to the CPS occupational tenure supplements. Self-employed and unpaid family workers are excluded.
Notes: See Table 2.
Average job-to-job transition rate 1996–2000 5.4% Average job-to-job transition rate 2008–2013 3.3% Decrease in job-to-job transition rate 2.1 pp Contribution from: Changes in employment shares by tenure 0.6 pp Changes in tenure-specific job-to-job transition rates 1.7 pp Tenure <1Y 0.9 pp Tenure 1Y to 3Y 0.4 pp Tenure 3Y to 5Y 0.2 pp Tenure 5Y to 10Y 0.2 pp Tenure 10Y+ 0.1 pp Source: Authors’ calculations from SIPP microdata, using 22–64-year-olds.
Notes: The job-to-job transition rate is defined as the fraction of employed workers who left an employer and reported working for a new employer three months later. Contributions do not sum exactly to the decrease in the aggregate job-to-job transition rate because the table does not report interactions between the changes in tenure-specific job-to-job transition rates and employment shares.
- Table 6
Worker Perceptions of Job Security and Satisfaction: Share Giving an Affirmative Response
Current Job Tenure Agree Own Job Security Is Good. How Easy to Find Equivalent New Job? How Satisfied with Own Job? How Likely to Search for New Job in Next Year? Survey QEMP (1970s) GSS (2000s, 2010s) QEMP (1970s) GSS (2000s, 2010s) QEMP (1970s) GSS (2000s, 2010s) QEMP (1970s) GSS (2000s, 2010s) All workers 79 88 62 61 88 90 28 40 By tenure category: < = 1 year 70 82 74 68 83 85 44 56 1 to < = 3 77 87 71 71 84 89 39 49 3 to < = 5 78 86 66 62 87 89 33 44 5 to < = 10 84 88 58 58 89 92 23 34 10 to < = 20 84 90 49 53 93 94 13 25 Over 20 89 90 43 45 94 94 7 15 Men age 50–64 82 88 46 55 92 92 13 29 Sources: The Quality of Work Life (QEMP) survey was administered by the U.S. Department of Labor in 1969–1970 1972–1973 and 1977, with about 1,300 responses in each wave. The General Social Survey (GSS) is administered by the National Opinion Research Center. Responses are from the Quality of Work Life module, administered in the GSS in 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, and 2018.
Notes: All cells report share respondents age 22–64 answering affirmatively or positively at the very or somewhat levels.
In this issue
Jump to section
- Article
- Abstract
- I. Introduction
- II. Data Overview
- III. Changes in the Tenure Distribution since the 1980s
- IV. What Explains the Decline in Long-Tenure Spells?
- V. What Explains the Decline in Short-Tenure Spells?
- VI. Consequences of the Shifting Tenure Distribution: Has Security of Employed Workers Changed?
- VII. Conclusion
- Acknowledgments
- Footnotes
- References
- Figures & Data
- Info & Metrics
- References