The Name Says It All

Abstract

We analyze multigenerational social mobility by drawing on a novel hand-collected data set from Basel (1550–2019) and using a new surname-based approach. We find an average parent–child persistence of about 0.4 and an average grandparent–child persistence of about 0.2 in a three-generational model applied to a time span of more than 450 years. A cyclical pattern indicates that social mobility was lowest in wartime generations, with spreading afterward. We measure a statistically significant additional influence of the grandparental generation but not of earlier generations. This reveals the importance of multigenerational analyses to examine equal opportunities in society.