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Research ArticleArticles
Open Access

School Choice and Educational Mobility

Lessons from Secondary School Applications in Ghana

View ORCID ProfileKehinde F. Ajayi
Journal of Human Resources, July 2024, 59 (4) 1207-1243; DOI: https://doi.org/10.3368/jhr.0417-8714R2
Kehinde F. Ajayi
Kehinde F. Ajayi is a senior fellow at the Center for Global Development ().
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  • Figure 1
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    Figure 1

    Exam Performance and Application Choices

    Notes: Figure illustrates differences in academic performance of selected secondary schools for students with the same ninth grade basic education certificate exam (BECE) scores but from low‐performing public, high‐performing public, and private junior high schools (JHSs). Secondary school performance is a normalized measure of the average percentage of students earning a credit in the math and English 12th grade secondary school certification exam (SSCE) for the period 2003–2008. Low‐performing public JHSs are those where the average BECE score of students is below the median for public schools in the country; high‐performing public JHSs are those with above‐median performance.

  • Figure 2
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    Figure 2

    Correlation in Secondary School Selectivity over Time

    Notes: School selectivity measures the average exam score of students admitted to a secondary school in a given year.

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    Figure 3

    Correlation in Secondary School Selectivity over Time (Cape Coast District)

    Notes: School selectivity measures the average exam score of students admitted to a secondary school in a given year.

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    Figure 4

    Exam Performance and Application Choices (Cape Coast District)

    Notes: Figure illustrates differences in academic performance of selected secondary schools for students with the same ninth grade basic education certificate exam (BECE) scores but from low‐performing public, high‐performing public, and private junior high schools (JHSs). Secondary school performance is a normalized measure of the average percentage of students earning a credit in the math and English 12th grade secondary school certification exam (SSCE) for the period 2003–2008. Low‐performing public JHSs are those where the average BECE score of students is below the median for public schools in the country; high‐performing public JHSs are those with above‐median performance.

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    Table 1

    Summary Statistics by JHS Performance

    Full SampleQualified StudentsQualified, Low‐Perf. Public JHSQualified, High‐Perf. Public JHSQualified, Private JHS
    (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)
    Panel A: Student Background
    Age17.16616.70417.24916.58416.121
    Male0.5460.5820.6500.5510.530
    Student’s BECE score0.0000.000−0.6270.2420.529
    JHS high‐performing0.4130.6040.0001.0000.893
    JHS public0.8240.7321.0001.0000.000
    JHS pass rate0.4970.6920.4830.7860.851
    JHS mean BECE score−0.318−0.003−0.6280.2390.525
    JHS classmates65.65467.47157.67280.95262.523
    JHS applicants to elite SHS14.88420.6457.34525.40731.511
    JHS admits to elite SHS2.9455.1260.3535.59310.620
    Elite SHS in district0.2670.3100.1670.3570.440
    Colonial SHS in district0.3160.3520.2060.3930.496
    Category A SHS in district0.4230.4620.3450.4960.575
    Panel B: First Choice School
    SSCE performance0.6141.0440.4291.1601.727
    SHS selectivity0.4640.8330.2950.9621.396
    Elite0.1410.2160.1030.2160.371
    Public1.0001.0001.0001.0001.000
    Mixed sex0.8340.7400.8930.7310.542
    Boarding facilities0.8180.8870.8340.8980.944
    Located in JHS district0.3970.3310.3820.3290.264
    Located in JHS region0.7660.7030.7920.7050.578
    Miles from JHS29.34234.97230.96235.01740.410
    Number of programs4.9805.0625.0025.1425.038
    Number of vacancies426.891438.275426.372449.409439.412
    Panel C: Admission Outcomes
    Qualified for SHS admission0.4981.0001.0001.0001.000
    Admitted to first choice0.2740.2680.2970.250
    SHS in JHS district0.3660.4470.3360.295
    SHS in JHS region0.7580.8560.7500.634
    Miles from JHS to SHS32.23427.18133.69937.161
    Boarding student0.6500.5470.6940.730
    SSCE performance0.146−0.2950.2670.581
    SHS selectivity−0.038−0.5140.1160.405
    N978,760487,562178,991178,035130,536
    • Notes: BECE is the ninth grade basic education certificate exam; SSCE is the 12th grade secondary school certification exam; JHS is junior high school; SHS is senior high school.

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    Table 2

    Differences in Application Choices and Admission Outcomes

    Panel A: Application PortfoliosAverage SSCE Performance of Selected Schools
    (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)
    Student’s BECE0.231***0.231***0.231***0.230***0.230***
    (0.002)(0.002)(0.002)(0.002)(0.002)
    JHS mean BECE0.203***0.163***0.145***0.084***0.048***
    (0.006)(0.007)(0.006)(0.006)(0.007)
    JHS public−0.180***−0.167***−0.147***−0.144***
    (0.010)(0.010)(0.009)(0.008)
    Elite SHS in district0.093***
    (0.012)
    Colonial SHS in district0.015
    (0.012)
    Category A SHS in district0.043***
    (0.010)
    JHS applicants to elite SHSs0.002***
    (0.000)
    District FEsNoNoNoYesYes
    R20.3750.3900.4010.4700.482
    N487,562487,562487,562487,562487,562
    Panel B: Application and AdmissionApplication PortfolioAdmission Outcomes
    Avg. SSCE PerformanceAverage SelectivitySSCE Perf. of SHSSelectivity of SHSPeer Quality in SHS
    (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)
    Student’s BECE0.230***0.205***0.614***0.615***0.633***
    (0.002)(0.001)(0.007)(0.004)(0.003)
    JHS mean BECE0.084***0.085***0.141***0.107***0.111***
    (0.006)(0.005)(0.008)(0.004)(0.004)
    JHS public−0.147***−0.148***−0.033***−0.041***−0.045***
    (0.009)(0.007)(0.009)(0.005)(0.005)
    District FEsYesYesYesYesYes
    R20.4700.5800.5630.7020.749
    N487,562487,562472,542487,562487,562
    • Notes: Table reports coefficients from a set of linear regressions. Outcome of interest is indicated at the top of each column. SSCE performance measures the percentage of secondary school students who earned a credit in the 12th grade English and math exams. School selectivity measures the average ninth grade exam score of students admitted to a secondary school between 2005 and 2009. Peer quality measures the average ninth grade exam score of students admitted in the current year. Standard errors are clustered at the junior high school level and reported in parentheses; *p < 0.1, **p < 0.05, ***p < 0.01.

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    Table 3

    Differences in Ordinal Ranking of Selected Schools

    Full SampleQualified StudentsQualified, Low‐Perf. Public JHSQualified, High‐Perf. Public JHSQualified, Private JHS
    (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)
    Panel A: Rank Ordering by School Selectivity
    qi1 > qi2 > . . . > qiN0.0790.1140.0650.1200.174
    qi1 ≥ qi2 ≥ . . . ≥ qiN0.1000.1400.0850.1480.206
    qi1 = max(qi) and qiN = min(qi)0.2620.3380.2350.3490.463
    qi1 ≥ qiN0.8250.8860.8240.9050.944
    SD of school selectivity0.6210.6870.6010.6960.792
    N978,760487,562178,991178,035130,536
    Panel B: Rank Ordering by School SSCE Performance
    sscei1 > sscei2 > . . . > ssceiN0.0590.0870.0490.0910.131
    sscei1 ≥ sscei2 ≥ . . . ≥ ssceiN0.0790.1110.0680.1170.161
    sscei1 = max(sscei) and ssceiN = min(sscei)0.2170.2840.1890.2890.403
    sscei1 ≥ ssceiN0.7800.8450.7690.8640.921
    SD of SSCE performance0.6890.7830.6500.8040.932
    N888,319453,006163,787165,328123,891
    • Notes: Table indicates the share of students whose ranking of application choices satisfies a given measure; for example, choices are strictly ranked in order of selectivity (Row 1), or choices are weakly ranked in order of selectivity (Row 2). School selectivity measures the mean ninth grade exam score of students admitted in the previous year. SSCE performance measures the percentage of secondary school students who earned a credit in the 12th grade English and math exams and is missing for schools that had not yet presented any SSCE candidates. Both are normalized to have mean zero and standard deviation of one.

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    Table 4

    Summary Statistics for Discrete Choice Analysis

    Full SampleQualified StudentsQualified, Low‐Perf. Public JHSQualified, High‐Perf. Public JHSQualified, Private JHS
    (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)
    Panel A: Application Portfolio Characteristics
    Standard deviation of school selectivity0.6230.6880.6030.6960.790
    Range of school selectivity1.5401.6981.4821.7161.964
    Selectivity of first choice school0.4820.8520.3060.9801.413
    Selectivity of most selective school0.8491.1280.6921.2301.579
    Selectivity of least selective school−0.691−0.569−0.791−0.486−0.385
    N973,934484,827176,309177,724130,794
    Panel B: Discrete Choice Set Characteristics (First Choice + Five Next Most Selective Alternatives)
    Standard deviation of school selectivity0.0350.0480.0260.0510.075
    Range of school selectivity0.0900.1230.0670.1290.191
    Selectivity of first choice school0.4820.8520.3060.9801.413
    Selectivity of most selective school0.4820.8520.3060.9801.413
    Selectivity of least selective school0.3930.7290.2380.8521.223
    N973,934484,827176,309177,724130,794
    • Notes: Panel A reports characteristics of the schools students submitted on their ranked‐order application lists. Panel B reports characteristics of the choice sets used for the discrete choice analysis, consisting of students’ first choice schools and the five next most selective alternatives. School selectivity measures the mean ninth grade exam score of students admitted to a secondary school in a given year. Sample includes all students with nonmissing characteristics for their first choice school.

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    Table 5

    Discrete Choice Model Estimates

    Choice CharacteristicAll Qualified StudentsPublic JHSPublic JHS (ACH)a
    (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)
    SSCE performance0.774***0.763***0.767***0.924***0.698***0.320***
    (0.013)(0.012)(0.012)(0.021)(0.015)(0.011)
    Colonial0.651***0.636***0.635***0.690***0.607***0.137***
    (0.012)(0.011)(0.011)(0.019)(0.014)(0.034)
    Public2.375***2.241***2.399***3.350***2.125***2.922***
    (0.267)(0.255)(0.223)(0.554)(0.243)(0.084)
    Single sex0.710***0.482***0.466***0.592***0.397***0.992***
    (0.014)(0.014)(0.015)(0.021)(0.019)(0.031)
    Boarding facilities1.037***1.160***1.164***1.349***1.107***0.903***
    (0.015)(0.017)(0.017)(0.038)(0.021)(0.014)
    Distance−0.044***−0.047***−0.048***−0.042***−0.051***−0.060***
    (0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)
    Student’s BECE score
     × SSCE performance0.446***0.362***0.368***0.301***0.411**
    (0.011)(0.010)(0.010)(0.012)(0.013)
     × Colonial0.071***0.053***0.063***0.030**0.257***
    (0.012)(0.012)(0.012)(0.015)(0.038)
     × Public0.0140.3350.418*0.221−0.162*
    (0.379)(0.246)(0.214)(0.213)(0.093)
     × Single sex0.192***0.101***0.106***0.086***−0.014
    (0.011)(0.014)(0.014)(0.017)(0.037)
     × Boarding facilities0.244***0.122***0.130***0.118***0.307***
    (0.016)(0.016)(0.016)(0.018)(0.017)
     × Distance0.012***0.006***0.006***0.006***0.005***
    (0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)
    JHS mean BECE score
     × SSCE performance0.138***0.086***0.079***0.089***
    (0.018)(0.019)(0.024)(0.018)
     × Colonial0.044**0.0220.039−0.088**
    (0.018)(0.019)(0.025)(0.042)
     × Public−0.597−0.882*−0.992*−0.212
    (0.400)(0.469)(0.534)(0.167)
     × Single sex0.135***0.089***0.118***0.231**
    (0.019)(0.020)(0.027)(0.048)
     × Boarding facilities0.240***0.184***0.171***−0.021
    (0.028)(0.030)(0.035)(0.027)
     × Distance0.008***0.006***0.007***0.004***
    (0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)
    JHS public
     × SSCE performance−0.216***
    (0.027)
     × Colonial−0.087***
    (0.025)
     × Public−1.168*
    (0.666)
     × Single sex−0.213***
    (0.028)
     × Boarding facilities−0.237***
    (0.043)
     × Distance−0.009***
    (0.001)
    Students484,827484,827484,827484,827354033292,406
    • Notes: Dependent variable is an indicator for the student’s first choice school. Alternatives consist of five next most selective schools relative to the student’s first choice (measured by mean exam score of students admitted to school in previous year). Regressions also include distance squared, number of programs offered, and number of vacancies. Standard errors are clustered at the junior high school level; *p < 0.1, **p < 0.05, ***p < 0.01. See notes in Table 6 for Column 6.

    • ↵a Artemov, Che, and He (2021) method.

    • View popup
    Table 6

    Discrete Choice Model Estimates by BECE Score Decile—Artemov, Che, and He (2021) Method

    Choice Characteristic(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)
    SSCE performance0.2520.299−0.2810.075−0.0290.249***0.403***0.329***−0.0450.275**
    (0.325)(0.296)(0.215)(0.139)(0.062)(0.022)(0.048)(0.084)(0.107)(0.115)
    Colonial1.727−0.5620.300−1.341**0.658**0.105−0.1120.466**0.3190.344*
    (4.814)(1.652)(1.054)(0.675)(0.260)(0.067)(0.149)(0.215)(0.235)(0.204)
    Public1.4041.9723.182***1.636**2.922***3.220***2.978***3.684***2.747*3.764***
    (1.475)(1.518)(1.224)(0.807)(0.388)(0.171)(0.546)(0.836)(1.549)(0.889)
    Single sex1.6870.9970.9941.582***1.422***1.144***1.346***0.930***0.711**0.650**
    (1.401)(1.182)(0.840)(0.523)(0.223)(0.065)(0.168)(0.273)(0.294)(0.270)
    Boarding facilities−0.0441.016***0.902***0.570***0.789***0.879***0.939***1.031***0.704***0.956***
    (0.346)(0.304)(0.218)(0.156)(0.073)(0.025)(0.066)(0.126)(0.200)(0.331)
    Distance−0.085***−0.071***−0.057***−0.055***−0.059***−0.061***−0.063***−0.064***−0.065***−0.069***
    (0.008)(0.007)(0.005)(0.003)(0.002)(0.001)(0.001)(0.002)(0.004)(0.003)
    Student’s BECE score
     × SSCE performance0.1270.255−0.3130.144−0.536***0.245−0.1350.244*0.792***0.453***
    (0.241)(0.280)(0.271)(0.254)(0.206)(0.190)(0.149)(0.126)(0.095)(0.066)
     × Colonial1.276−1.1950.306−2.439*2.754***1.458**1.198**−0.1340.1080.059
    (3.704)(1.578)(1.325)(1.267)(0.922)(0.726)(0.470)(0.315)(0.207)(0.116)
     × Public−1.330−1.024−0.408−3.051**−0.3401.3360.992−1.067−0.2310.048
    (1.036)(1.441)(1.537)(1.517)(1.395)(1.772)(1.689)(1.262)(1.356)(0.512)
     × Single sex0.6810.3810.1910.9680.383−1.068*−1.624***−0.093−0.0200.065
    (1.048)(1.110)(1.065)(0.956)(0.756)(0.646)(0.547)(0.404)(0.261)(0.156)
     × Boarding facilities−0.520**0.540*0.397−0.1330.0830.535**0.0870.0500.429**0.378**
    (0.261)(0.288)(0.273)(0.282)(0.239)(0.232)(0.213)(0.192)(0.181)(0.193)
     × Distance−0.019***−0.0080.0080.017***0.015***0.0070.010**0.009**0.011***0.013***
    (0.006)(0.006)(0.006)(0.006)(0.005)(0.005)(0.004)(0.004)(0.003)(0.002)
    JHS mean BECE score
     × SSCE performance0.0810.0830.030−0.0130.059−0.0580.0150.0170.0440.119***
    (0.093)(0.076)(0.066)(0.056)(0.046)(0.042)(0.037)(0.032)(0.028)(0.034)
     × Colonial−0.3440.849**0.692**0.2390.2400.182−0.167*−0.063−0.019−0.053
    (0.912)(0.380)(0.282)(0.230)(0.181)(0.131)(0.095)(0.072)(0.057)(0.065)
     × Public0.5210.1630.625*0.2920.120−0.811***−0.809**−1.168***−0.105−0.989*
    (0.375)(0.376)(0.330)(0.311)(0.307)(0.306)(0.315)(0.356)(0.362)(0.522)
     × Single sex−0.142−0.1830.266−0.1630.543***0.1810.1140.299***0.421***0.197**
    (0.399)(0.252)(0.214)(0.177)(0.146)(0.125)(0.113)(0.089)(0.080)(0.087)
     × Boarding facilities0.112−0.0390.003−0.019−0.070−0.064−0.039−0.0270.112**−0.052
    (0.098)(0.078)(0.065)(0.061)(0.054)(0.050)(0.048)(0.051)(0.056)(0.117)
     × Distance0.016***0.011***0.009***0.006***0.004***0.007***0.003***0.002***0.0010.004***
    (0.002)(0.002)(0.001)(0.001)(0.001)(0.001)(0.001)(0.001)(0.001)(0.001)
    Students22,74930,54933,54732,39733,79131,95631,77029,01925,53921,089
    • Notes: Estimates using method proposed by Artemov, Che, and He (2021). Sample restricted to students admitted to a clearly feasible choice (where they scored above the fifth percentile of admitted students). Dependent variable is an indicator for the student’s assigned school. Alternatives consist of five randomly selected clearly feasible schools. Regressions also include distance squared, number of programs offered, and number of vacancies. Standard errors are clustered at the junior high school level; *p < 0.1, **p < 0.05, ***p < 0.01. Each column reports estimates from a separate regression for students in a given BECE score decile.

    • View popup
    Table 7

    Differences in Application Choices and Admission Outcomes (Cape Coast District)

    Application PortfolioAdmission Outcomes
    Avg. SSCE PerformanceAvg. SelectivitySSCE Perf. of SHSSelectivity of SHSPeer Quality in SHS
    (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)
    Panel A: All Qualified Students
    Student’s BECE0.230***0.205***0.614***0.615***0.633***
    (0.002)(0.001)(0.007)(0.004)(0.003)
    JHS mean BECE0.084***0.085***0.141***0.107***0.111***
    (0.006)(0.005)(0.008)(0.004)(0.004)
    JHS public−0.147***−0.148***−0.033***−0.041***−0.045***
    (0.009)(0.007)(0.009)(0.005)(0.005)
    District FEsYesYesYesYesYes
    R20.4700.5800.5630.7020.749
    N487,562487,562472,542487,562487,562
    Panel B: JHS in Cape Coast District
    Student’s BECE0.283***0.236***0.654***0.659***0.669***
    (0.022)(0.013)(0.050)(0.027)(0.028)
    JHS mean BECE0.082**0.102***0.234***0.148***0.175***
    (0.035)(0.026)(0.032)(0.023)(0.031)
    JHS public−0.189***−0.165***0.026−0.016−0.017
    (0.058)(0.053)(0.059)(0.037)(0.029)
    District FEsNoNoNoNoNo
    R20.4140.4340.6490.7170.759
    N4,1854,1854,0424,1854,185
    Panel C: JHS in Cape Coast District and Applied in JHS District Only
    Student’s BECE0.380***0.296***0.784***0.707***0.728***
    (0.051)(0.026)(0.101)(0.053)(0.060)
    JHS mean BECE0.246***0.233***0.267*0.166**0.192**
    (0.058)(0.051)(0.134)(0.074)(0.073)
    JHS public−0.0240.0050.0450.0620.065
    (0.118)(0.098)(0.096)(0.073)(0.068)
    District FEsNoNoNoNoNo
    R20.4850.4990.6740.7220.743
    N459459446459459
    • Notes: Same as Table 2.

    • View popup
    Table 8

    Differences in Ordinal Ranking of Selected Schools (Cape Coast District)

    Full SampleQualified StudentsQualified, Low‐Perf. Public JHSQualified, High‐Perf. Public JHSQualified, Private JHS
    (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)
    Panel A: Rank Ordering by School Selectivity
    qi1 > qi2 > . . . > qiN0.0790.1140.0650.1200.174
    qi1 ≥ qi2 ≥ . . . ≥ qiN0.1000.1400.0850.1480.206
    qi1 = max(qi) and qiN = min(qi)0.2620.3380.2350.3490.463
    qi1 ≥ qiN0.8250.8860.8240.9050.944
    SD of school selectivity0.6210.6870.6010.6960.792
    Selectivity of first choice school0.4820.8520.3060.9801.413
    N978,760487,562178,991178,035130,536
    Panel B: Rank Ordering by School Selectivity; JHS in Cape Coast
    qi1 > qi2 > . . . > qiN0.1190.1760.1290.1720.212
    qi1 ≥ qi2 ≥ . . . ≥ qiN0.1940.2810.2040.2860.323
    qi1 = max(qi) and qiN = min(qi)0.3730.5030.3620.4990.602
    qi1 ≥ qiN0.8980.9540.9340.9520.972
    SD of school selectivity0.7520.8450.7890.8350.898
    Selectivity of first choice school0.9551.4290.8971.4191.797
    N8,9444,1858592,0261,300
    Panel C: Rank Ordering by School Selectivity; JHS in Cape Coast and Applied Locally
    qi1 > qi2 > . . . > qiN0.2310.3050.3380.2840.331
    qi1 ≥ qi2 ≥ . . . ≥ qiN0.5770.6860.7180.6590.726
    qi1 = max(qi) and qiN = min(qi)0.6690.7690.8030.7420.806
    qi1 ≥ qiN0.9350.9590.9720.9470.976
    SD of school selectivity0.6780.7400.7500.7380.737
    Selectivity of first choice school0.9491.3351.0201.2941.604
    N79745971264124
    • Notes: Same as Table 3.

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    • 0417-8714R2_supp.pdf
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Journal of Human Resources: 59 (4)
Journal of Human Resources
Vol. 59, Issue 4
1 Jul 2024
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School Choice and Educational Mobility
Kehinde F. Ajayi
Journal of Human Resources Jul 2024, 59 (4) 1207-1243; DOI: 10.3368/jhr.0417-8714R2

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School Choice and Educational Mobility
Kehinde F. Ajayi
Journal of Human Resources Jul 2024, 59 (4) 1207-1243; DOI: 10.3368/jhr.0417-8714R2
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    • I. Introduction
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