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Research ArticleArticles
Open Access

Does Federally Funded Job Training Work?

Nonexperimental Estimates of WIA Training Impacts Using Longitudinal Data on Workers and Firms

Fredrik Andersson, Harry J. Holzer, Julia I. Lane, David Rosenblum and View ORCID ProfileJeffrey Smith
Journal of Human Resources, July 2024, 59 (4) 1244-1283; DOI: https://doi.org/10.3368/jhr.0816-8185R1
Fredrik Andersson
Fredrick Andersson is at Bank of America.
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Harry J. Holzer
Harry J. Holzer is at Georgetown University and the American Institutes for Research.
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Julia I. Lane
Julia I. Lane is at New York University and the Coleridge Initiative.
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David Rosenblum
David Rosenblum is at the U.S. Department of Labor.
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Jeffrey Smith
Jeffrey Smith is at the University of Wisconsin, NBER, IZA, CESifo, and HCEO ().
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  • ORCID record for Jeffrey Smith
  • For correspondence: [email protected]
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    Figure 1

    Mean Earnings

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    • View popup
    Table 1

    Descriptive Statistics for Characteristics, State A

    AdultDislocated
    TreatedUntreatedTreatedUntreated
    Year of registration19990.000.000.000.00
    20000.080.110.070.08
    20010.320.310.240.28
    20020.230.260.280.28
    20030.200.170.280.19
    20040.110.090.090.13
    20050.060.060.040.05
    SexMale0.380.410.440.40
    RaceWhite0.360.240.510.47
    Other0.060.070.090.12
    Black0.580.700.400.41
    Age at registration (years)35.3236.2042.0142.65
    Age at registration<200.080.080.010.01
    21–250.170.160.050.05
    26–300.140.130.080.08
    31–350.140.130.130.12
    36–400.140.140.170.15
    41–450.120.140.180.18
    46–500.090.100.160.16
    51–550.060.070.120.13
    56–600.030.040.070.08
    61+0.020.020.020.03
    EducationLess than high school0.100.250.040.08
    High school0.600.540.530.43
    Some college0.200.110.240.23
    College or more0.090.080.200.25
    Missing0.010.030.000.02
    • Source: Authors’ calculations from WIA and LEHD data.

    • Notes: Values in the table give the fraction of the column group (for example, treated adults) in each category of each variable. For example, the fraction of treated adults in State A who registered in 2002 equals 0.23.

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    Table 2

    Descriptive Statistics for Characteristics, State B

    AdultDislocated
    TreatedUntreatedTreatedUntreated
    Year of registration19990.070.040.080.05
    20000.090.120.090.11
    20010.260.250.260.25
    20020.300.220.320.25
    20030.200.200.190.18
    20040.080.140.060.13
    20050.010.030.000.02
    SexMale0.370.410.570.52
    RaceWhite0.480.220.720.46
    Other0.110.200.140.23
    Black0.400.570.140.32
    Age at registration (years)33.1035.7340.6042.66
    Age at registration<200.070.050.010.01
    21–250.220.170.060.06
    26–300.180.150.110.09
    31–350.150.140.140.11
    36–400.130.140.160.14
    41–450.100.130.180.18
    46–500.070.100.160.18
    51–550.040.060.110.14
    56–600.020.030.050.08
    61+0.010.020.010.02
    EducationLess than high school0.110.220.050.13
    High school0.580.490.530.51
    Some college0.240.220.240.23
    College or more0.070.080.180.12
    Missing0.000.000.000.00
    • Source: Authors’ calculations from WIA and LEHD data.

    • Notes: Values in the table give the fraction of the column group (for example, treated adults) in each category of each variable. For example, the fraction of treated adults in State B who registered in 2002 equals 0.30.

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    Table 3

    Descriptive Statistics for Earnings and Employment, State A

    AdultDislocated
    TreatedUntreatedTreatedUntreated
    Number of Participants:4,64010,8924,3476,489
    EarningsEmploymentEarningsEmploymentEarningsEmploymentEarningsEmployment
    Q–123,7600.573,7560.557,7230.727,7200.70
    Q–113,9140.583,8240.568,0970.748,0390.72
    Q–103,8840.593,9430.578,1470.748,2590.73
    Q–94,0870.604,0410.588,4280.758,5140.74
    Q–84,0800.614,0270.598,5070.768,5810.74
    Q–74,2780.624,1840.618,8090.789,0280.78
    Q–64,2390.634,1940.618,9920.809,1980.79
    Q–54,2900.634,2710.619,2130.819,4780.80
    Q–44,2880.644,1350.629,3440.829,3590.81
    Q–34,2860.643,8780.609,4080.839,3080.81
    Q–24,0540.633,6370.598,9780.809,1090.80
    Q–13,4670.603,2320.587,9660.757,9250.73
    Q2,3410.552,5910.644,8020.574,6340.58
    Q + 12,4980.583,4700.693,2030.494,5300.60
    Q + 23,3700.654,0410.704,1660.605,8840.69
    Q + 34,0750.684,3080.705,0950.656,4960.72
    Q + 44,4330.694,3760.695,6800.686,6030.71
    Q + 54,6700.704,5240.685,9300.696,8310.71
    Q + 64,9310.704,4760.676,3520.706,9700.71
    Q + 74,9530.694,5520.676,4850.717,0610.70
    Q + 84,9860.684,5800.666,5550.707,0040.70
    Q + 95,0570.684,6250.666,6370.707,1720.69
    Q + 105,1190.684,5930.656,7380.707,1910.69
    Q + 115,1330.674,6780.646,8460.707,2560.68
    Q + 125,1650.664,7020.646,8030.697,2050.68
    • Source: Authors’ calculations from WIA and LEHD data.

    • Notes: Earnings are in 2020$. Employment is proportion employed.

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    Table 4

    Descriptive Statistics for Earnings and Employment, State B

    AdultDislocated
    TreatedUntreatedTreatedUntreated
    Number of Participants:11,38011,80216,18712,059
    EarningsEmploymentEarningsEmploymentEarningsEmploymentEarningsEmployment
    Q–123,6330.603,1260.5411,2380.8810,2710.88
    Q–113,7410.623,1710.5511,3860.8810,4620.89
    Q–103,7460.623,1600.5511,4540.8910,4730.89
    Q–93,7440.623,1390.5511,5450.8910,5570.90
    Q–83,6940.623,1120.5511,7270.9010,6530.90
    Q–73,7140.633,1130.5511,8550.9110,6880.91
    Q–63,6340.633,0330.5511,9710.9110,6450.91
    Q–53,5330.632,9020.5411,8320.9110,6080.91
    Q–43,3560.622,7550.5211,6360.9010,3120.90
    Q–33,1000.612,4730.5111,4230.899,9760.88
    Q–22,6270.592,0840.4810,4070.859,0990.83
    Q–12,0950.561,6210.458,8600.767,4600.73
    Q1,5620.531,4630.555,0590.594,7270.64
    Q + 11,9510.552,8330.662,8550.484,4080.66
    Q + 22,6700.613,3340.674,0320.575,6580.73
    Q + 33,1270.643,4690.655,0660.636,3940.75
    Q + 43,4160.653,4960.645,7390.676,5140.76
    Q + 53,7570.663,5670.636,2510.706,7290.76
    Q + 63,9020.663,5530.616,6090.716,8650.76
    Q + 73,9970.653,5570.606,9610.726,9260.75
    Q + 84,1520.653,5760.597,1750.736,8750.75
    Q + 94,2750.653,6130.597,4800.747,0420.74
    Q + 104,3070.643,5600.587,6840.747,0320.74
    Q + 114,4580.643,5810.577,8730.747,0650.73
    Q + 124,4430.643,5960.577,9360.747,0370.73
    • Source: Authors’ calculations from WIA and LEHD data.

    • Notes: Earnings are in 2020$. Employment is proportion employed.

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    Table 5

    Probit Models of WIA Training Receipt, Model 6

    State A, AdultState A, DislocatedState B, AdultState B, Dislocated
    Variable:AMESEAMESEAMESEAMESE
    Age <20−0.012<0.001−0.117<0.0010.032<0.0010.001<0.001
    21–250.000<0.001−0.006<0.0010.028<0.0010.011<0.001
    31–35−0.010<0.0010.012<0.0010.005<0.001−0.005<0.001
    36–40−0.017<0.0010.016<0.001−0.015<0.001−0.021<0.001
    41–45−0.046<0.001−0.010<0.001−0.042<0.001−0.052<0.001
    46–50−0.054<0.001−0.006<0.001−0.042<0.001−0.076<0.001
    51–55−0.060<0.001−0.036<0.001−0.050<0.001−0.117<0.001
    56–60−0.099<0.001−0.055<0.001−0.073<0.001−0.150<0.001
    61+−0.060<0.001−0.061<0.001−0.184<0.001−0.172<0.001
    Less than HS−0.1670.001−0.141<0.001−0.071<0.001−0.058<0.001
    Some college0.045<0.001−0.006<0.0010.006<0.0010.014<0.001
    College or more−0.015<0.001−0.047<0.001−0.008<0.0010.023<0.001
    Education missing−0.044<0.001−0.4060.001
    Other−0.018<0.0010.004<0.001−0.045<0.001−0.024<0.001
    Black0.014<0.0010.035<0.001−0.011<0.001−0.045<0.001
    • Source: Authors’ calculations from WIA and LEHD data.

    • Notes: AME is average marginal effect. Omitted age category is 26–30, omitted education category is high school, and omitted race/ethnicity is white. See Online Appendix 3 for the full set of estimates.

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    Table 6

    Impacts on Earnings and Employment, Inverse Propensity Score Weighting, Model 6, State A

    Adult ClassificationDislocated Classification
    Treatment EffectSEp‐ValueTreatment EffectSEp‐Value
    Earnings
    Q + 1−720104<0.01−1,132169<0.01
    Q + 2−559111<0.01−1,351163<0.01
    Q + 3−3331940.09−1,168176<0.01
    Q + 4−471220.70−657176<0.01
    Q + 5−131300.92−576163<0.01
    Q + 62581390.06−3391760.05
    Q + 72951260.02−2171740.21
    Q + 83301330.01−1861850.32
    Q + 93661390.01−5924040.14
    Q + 10473133<0.01−1871990.35
    Q + 113141440.03−1482150.49
    Q + 123611440.01−1562090.46
    Total, Q + 1 to Q + 127251,2100.55−6,7071,815<0.01
    Total, Q + 9 to Q + 121,515497<0.01−1,0828230.19
    Employed
    Q + 1−0.0700.015<0.01−0.0670.014<0.01
    Q + 2−0.0300.0140.03−0.0550.014<0.01
    Q + 3−0.0130.0150.39−0.0300.0140.04
    Q + 4−0.0030.0130.83−0.0010.0140.93
    Q + 50.0120.0140.390.0090.0150.53
    Q + 60.0220.0140.120.0260.0150.07
    Q + 70.0210.0140.120.0430.015<0.01
    Q + 80.0070.0140.600.0390.0140.01
    Q + 90.0180.0150.230.0350.0140.01
    Q + 100.0280.0150.070.0360.0150.02
    Q + 110.0180.0150.220.0510.014<0.01
    Q + 120.0220.0150.130.0370.0140.01
    • Source: Authors’ calculations from WIA and LEHD data.

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    Table 7

    Impacts on Earnings and Employment, Inverse Propensity Score Weighting, Model 6, State B

    Adult ClassificationDislocated Classification
    Treatment EffectSEp‐ValueTreatment EffectSEp‐Value
    Earnings
    Q + 1−829111<0.01−1,517215<0.01
    Q + 2−764142<0.01−1,562180<0.01
    Q + 3−451110<0.01−1,421177<0.01
    Q + 4−2221280.08−1,027170<0.01
    Q + 5291210.81−798156<0.01
    Q + 6981300.45−481149<0.01
    Q + 71891290.14−3161870.09
    Q + 82951410.04−1631500.28
    Q + 9443121<0.01−331630.84
    Q + 10487165<0.011961970.32
    Q + 11586160<0.013741600.02
    Q + 125361950.014431630.01
    Total, Q + 1 to Q + 123961,2570.75−6,3041,763<0.01
    Total, Q + 9 to Q + 122,052562<0.019805920.10
    Employed
    Q + 1−0.0840.013<0.01−0.1200.011<0.01
    Q + 2−0.0490.013<0.01−0.1050.011<0.01
    Q + 3−0.0170.0120.15−0.0860.010<0.01
    Q + 40.0100.0130.45−0.0660.010<0.01
    Q + 50.0180.0130.18−0.0460.010<0.01
    Q + 60.0260.0130.05−0.0250.0100.02
    Q + 70.0230.0120.06−0.0190.0100.06
    Q + 80.0460.013<0.01−0.0030.0100.75
    Q + 90.0470.013<0.010.0010.0090.93
    Q + 100.0490.013<0.010.0070.0100.50
    Q + 110.0560.013<0.010.0160.0100.12
    Q + 120.0550.013<0.010.0170.0100.08
    • Source: Authors’ calculations from WIA and LEHD data.

    • View popup
    Table 8

    Impacts on Earnings, Inverse Propensity Score Weighting, Model 6

    Adult ClassificationDislocated Classification
    Treatment EffectSEp‐ValueTreatment EffectSEp‐Value
    State A
    Women
    Total, Q + 1 to Q + 127581,3720.58−8,7392,331<0.01
    Total, Q + 9 to Q + 121,4535790.01−1,3468560.12
    Men
    Total, Q + 1 to Q + 124592,1830.83−6,3312,175<0.01
    Total, Q + 9 to Q + 121,5139720.12−1,5869540.10
    State B
    Women
    Total, Q + 1 to Q + 121,6381,2030.17−6,1181,778<0.01
    Total, Q + 9 to Q + 122,700532<0.016827450.36
    Men
    Total, Q + 1 to Q + 122642,8120.93−4,4232,8840.13
    Total, Q + 9 to Q + 122,4731,0590.022,1161,1360.06
    • Source: Authors’ calculations from WIA and LEHD data.

    • View popup
    Table 9

    Impacts on Firm Characteristics, Inverse Propensity Score Weighting, Model 6

    State A, Adult ClassificationState A, Dislocated ClassificationState B, Adult ClassificationState B, Dislocated Classification
    Treatment EffectSEp‐ValueTreatment EffectSEp‐ValueTreatment EffectSEp‐ValueTreatment EffectSEp‐Value
    High fixed effect−0.0070.0130.58−0.0080.0130.550.0300.008<0.01−0.0080.0110.50
    No fixed effect0.0080.0110.420.0100.0110.35−0.0060.0120.620.0140.0080.06
    Continuous fixed effect0.0010.0050.81−0.0050.0050.28−0.0020.0030.470.0000.0030.92
    Firm size ≥ 1000.0190.0150.210.0160.0140.280.0600.014<0.010.0040.0110.69
    High turnover−0.0010.0110.900.0110.0090.240.0030.0090.770.0060.0090.52
    Switched industry0.0210.0150.160.0640.015<0.010.0590.012<0.010.0560.011<0.01
    • Source: Authors’ calculations from WIA and LEHD data.

    • Notes: See the text for variable definitions.

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    Table 10

    Impacts on Earnings, Inverse Propensity Score Weighting, Alternative Conditioning Variables, State A

    Adult ClassificationDislocated Classification
    Treatment EffectSEp‐ValueTreatment EffectSEp‐Value
    Impact over Q + 1 through Q + 12
    Model 1−2,0528000.01−10,6291,243<0.01
    Model 2−6777960.40−10,7491,189<0.01
    Model 37491,1840.53−6,8081,844<0.01
    Model 47541,1130.50−6,6791,802<0.01
    Model 57181,1400.53−6,8231,721<0.01
    Model 67251,1650.53−6,7071,717<0.01
    Impact over Q + 9 through Q + 12
    Model 16053590.09−2,143500<0.01
    Model 29383620.01−2,404559<0.01
    Model 31,539536<0.01−1,1177700.15
    Model 41,522493<0.01−1,0868790.22
    Model 51,531515<0.01−1,1058780.21
    Model 61,515513<0.01−1,0828320.19
    • Source: Authors’ calculations from WIA and LEHD data.

    • Notes: Model 1 contains basic demographics and two years of pre‐program earnings. Model 2 approximates the specification in Heinrich (2013) but omits the geographic variables. Model 3 adds one‐stop center indicators (that is, geography) to Model 2. Model 4 adds characteristics of the worker’s most recent firm to Model 3. Model 5 adds four additional quarters of pre‐program earnings to Model 3. Model 6 adds both the firm characteristics and the additional earnings variables to Model 3. For more detail see Section V.A.

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    Table 11

    Impacts on Earnings, Inverse Propensity Score Weighting, Alternative Conditioning Variables, State B

    Adult ClassificationDislocated Classification
    Treatment EffectSEp‐ValueTreatment EffectSEp‐Value
    Impact over Q + 1 through Q + 12
    Model 1−1,5585700.01−11,671911<0.01
    Model 2−867210.90−9,0551,030<0.01
    Model 38851,1090.43−6,3961,692<0.01
    Model 48061,2280.51−6,3281,693<0.01
    Model 54161,1880.73−6,3781,656<0.01
    Model 63961,2840.76−6,3041,553<0.01
    Impact over Q + 9 through Q + 12
    Model 11,661259<0.01−6263720.09
    Model 21,958288<0.01804500.86
    Model 32,214529<0.019455940.11
    Model 42,171594<0.019676170.12
    Model 52,068569<0.019626020.11
    Model 62,052614<0.019806160.11
    • Source: Authors’ calculations from WIA and LEHD data.

    • Notes: Model 1 contains basic demographics and two years of pre‐program earnings. Model 2 approximates the specification in Heinrich (2013) but omits the geographic variables. Model 3 adds one‐stop center indicators (that is, geography) to Model 2. Model 4 adds characteristics of the worker’s most recent firm to Model 3. Model 5 adds four additional quarters of pre‐program earnings to Model 3. Model 6 adds both the firm characteristics and the additional earnings variables to Model 3. For more detail see Section V.A of the text.

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    Table 12

    Differences‐in‐Differences Impacts on Earnings, Inverse Propensity Score Weighting, Model 6

    Adult ClassificationDislocated Classification
    Treatment EffectSEp‐ValueTreatment EffectSEp‐Value
    State A
    Total, Q + 1 to Q + 128801,0290.39−3,6182,1200.09
    Total, Q + 9 to Q + 121,7036310.01−1091,0460.92
    State B
    Total, Q + 1 to Q + 12−6101,3330.65−5,0741,8290.01
    Total, Q + 9 to Q + 121,5139710.121,2807520.09
    • Source: Authors’ calculations from WIA and LEHD data.

    • Notes: For differences‐in‐differences analysis, the pre‐period is Q–12 through Q–1 when using Q + 1 to Q + 12 as the post‐period, and is Q–12 through Q–9 when using Q + 9 through Q + 12 as the post‐period.

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    Table 13

    Cost–Benefit Analysis, State A

    Net Benefit per Participant
    $3,000 Direct Costs$9,000 Direct Costs
    Benefit DurationMSCPFAnnual Discount RateAdultDislocatedAdultDislocated
    As long as in the data1.000.00−2,275−9,707−8,275−15,707
    1.000.05−2,466−9,536−8,466−15,536
    1.000.10−2,649−9,370−8,649−15,370
    1.250.00−3,025−10,457−10,525−17,957
    1.250.05−3,216−10,286−10,716−17,786
    1.250.10−3,399−10,120−10,899−17,620
    1.500.00−3,775−11,207−12,775−20,207
    1.500.05−3,966−11,036−12,966−20,036
    1.500.10−4,149−10,870−13,149−19,870
    5 years1.000.00610−10,952−5,390−16,952
    1.000.05−54−10,576−6,054−16,576
    1.000.10−652−10,232−6,652−16,232
    1.250.00−140−11,702−7,640−19,202
    1.250.05−804−11,326−8,304−18,826
    1.250.10−1,402−10,982−8,902−18,482
    1.500.00−890−12,452−9,890−21,452
    1.500.05−1,554−12,076−10,554−21,076
    1.500.10−2,152−11,732−11,152−20,732
    Indefinite1.000.00+inf–inf+inf–inf
    1.000.0522,267−20,20716,267−26,207
    1.000.107,865−13,9071,865−19,907
    1.250.00+inf–inf+inf–inf
    1.250.0521,517−20,95714,017−28,457
    1.250.107,115−14,657−385−22,157
    1.500.00+inf–inf+inf–inf
    1.500.0520,767−21,70711,767−30,707
    1.500.106,365−15,407−2,635−24,407
    • Source: Authors’ calculations from WIA and LEHD data.

    • Notes: Estimates are drawn from Table 6. With an annual discount rate of 0.00, the benefits under the assumption of indefinite benefit duration become infinite, whether positive (“+inf”) or negative (“–inf”). Costs are assumed to entirely occur in the first quarter after WIA registration. MSCPF is the marginal social cost of public funds.

    • View popup
    Table 14

    Cost–Benefit Analysis, State B

    Net Benefit per Participant
    $3,000 Direct Costs$9,000 Direct Costs
    Benefit DurationMSCPFAnnual Discount RateAdultDislocatedAdultDislocated
    As long as in the data1.000.00−2,604−9,305−8,604−15,305
    1.000.05−2,834−9,313−8,834−15,313
    1.000.10−3,055−9,315−9,055−15,315
    1.250.00−3,354−10,055−10,854−17,555
    1.250.05−3,584−10,063−11,084−17,563
    1.250.10−3,805−10,065−11,305−17,565
    1.500.00−4,104−10,805−13,104−19,805
    1.500.05−4,334−10,813−13,334−19,813
    1.500.10−4,555−10,815−13,555−19,815
    5 years1.000.001,684−5,759−4,316−11,759
    1.000.05750−6,348−5,250−12,348
    1.000.10−86−6,860−6,086−12,860
    1.250.00934−6,509−6,566−14,009
    1.250.050−7,098−7,500−14,598
    1.250.10−836−7,610−8,336−15,110
    1.500.00184−7,259−8,816−16,259
    1.500.05−750−7,848−9,750−16,848
    1.500.10−1,586−8,360−10,586−17,360
    Indefinite1.000.00+inf+inf+inf+inf
    1.000.0533,92621,09127,92615,091
    1.000.1012,5733,6106,573−2,390
    1.250.00+inf+inf+inf+inf
    1.250.0533,17620,34125,67612,841
    1.250.1011,8232,8604,323−4,640
    1.500.00+inf+inf+inf+inf
    1.500.0532,42619,59123,42610,591
    1.500.1011,0732,1102,073−6,890
    • Source: Authors’ calculations from WIA and LEHD data.

    • Notes: Estimates are drawn from Table 7. With an annual discount rate of 0.00, the benefits under the assumption of indefinite benefit duration become infinite, whether positive (“+inf”) or negative (“–inf”). Costs are assumed to entirely occur in the first quarter after WIA registration. MSCPF is the marginal social cost of public funds.

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Journal of Human Resources: 59 (4)
Journal of Human Resources
Vol. 59, Issue 4
1 Jul 2024
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Does Federally Funded Job Training Work?
Fredrik Andersson, Harry J. Holzer, Julia I. Lane, David Rosenblum, Jeffrey Smith
Journal of Human Resources Jul 2024, 59 (4) 1244-1283; DOI: 10.3368/jhr.0816-8185R1

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Does Federally Funded Job Training Work?
Fredrik Andersson, Harry J. Holzer, Julia I. Lane, David Rosenblum, Jeffrey Smith
Journal of Human Resources Jul 2024, 59 (4) 1244-1283; DOI: 10.3368/jhr.0816-8185R1
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  • Article
    • Abstract
    • I. Introduction
    • II. The WIA Program
    • III. Data
    • IV. Treatment and the Parameter of Interest
    • V. Identification and Estimation
    • VI. Results: Determinants of Training Receipt
    • VII. Results: Impacts on Earnings and Employment
    • VIII. Results: Firm Characteristics
    • IX. Results: Alternative Identification Strategies
    • X. WIA Costs and Benefits
    • XI. Conclusions
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