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Research ArticleArticles
Open Access

Do Microcredentials Help New Workers Enter the Market?

Evidence from an Online Labor Platform

View ORCID ProfileOtto Kässi and View ORCID ProfileVili Lehdonvirta
Journal of Human Resources, July 2024, 59 (4) 1284-1318; DOI: https://doi.org/10.3368/jhr.0519-10226R3
Otto Kässi
Otto Kässi () is a researcher at ETLA Economic Research, a senior researcher at Turku Centre for Labour Studies, University of Turku, and a research associate at the Oxford Internet Institute, University of Oxford.
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  • ORCID record for Otto Kässi
  • For correspondence: otto.kassi{at}etla.fi
Vili Lehdonvirta
Vili Lehdonvirta is Professor of Economic Sociology and Digital Social Research at the Oxford Internet Institute, University of Oxford.
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Figures

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  • Figure 1
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    Figure 1

    A Screenshot of a Worker’s Profile Featuring Microcredentials

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    Figure 2

    The Kernel Density of the Microcredential Test Score Distribution

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    Figure 3

    Comparison between the Fixed‐Effects Event (Event FE) Study and the Conditional Difference‐in‐Differences Estimates (CDID)

    Notes: Figures include point estimates and 95 percent confidence intervals.

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    Figure 4

    The Marginal Effect of Signaling for Different Levels of Experience

    Notes: The estimates are from regression models that control for worker fixed effects. The gray bands correspond to 95 percent confidence intervals, calculated as ±1.96 × standard error.

  • Figure 5
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    Figure 5

    Marginal Effect of Signaling for Different Levels of Experience

    Notes: The estimates are from regression models that control for worker fixed effects. The gray bands correspond to 95 percent confidence intervals, calculated as ±1.96 × standard error.

Tables

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    Table 1

    Descriptive Statistics

    Panel A: Time‐Varying Worker Characteristics
    Sample
    Full SampleAt the Time of Microcredential AwardWorkers Without Any Microcredentials
    (1)(2)(3)
    Mean (SD)MedianMean (SD)MedianMean (SD)Median
    Number of microcredentials2.1803.18200
    (3.81)(4.33)(0)
    Number of completed projects42.44195.08017.972
    (64.79)(18.03)(49.58)
    Dollars earned11,193.823,165.92,272.3505,449.62195
    (22,862.06)(10,244.44)(15,803.23)
    Months active22.8617.819.79.9613.693.7
    (20.29)(21.75)(19.15)
    Freelancer rating3.023.432.573.063.313.59
    (1.66)(2.07)(1.45)
    Average project value403.59146.04673.23157.98601.28168.7
    (1,335.32)(2,386.92)(2,459.63)
    Panel B: Time‐Invariant Background Characteristics
    ShareShareShare
    Male70%70%68%
    College degree or more74%72%58%
    Top‐5 countries
    India27%India24%India22%
    Bangladesh12%Bangladesh12%United States15%
    Philippines11%Philippines9%Ukraine7%
    Pakistan10%United States8%Philippines6%
    United States7%Pakistan7%Pakistan6%
    Panel C: Sample Sizes
    Share with at least 1 project won45%32%19%
    Number of projects442,203233,79120,827
    Number of workers46,79133,09113,700
    • Notes: Column 1 presents the descriptive statistics for the full sample, Column 2 presents the descriptive statistics at the time of microcredential completion for the subsample of workers who take tests, and Column 3 presents the descriptive statistics for workers who have not completed any tests. In Columns 1 and 3, worker characteristics are measured at time of project start, and one observation corresponds to a project completed by a worker. In Column 2, time‐varying characteristics are measured at time of microcredential completion. In Panel B, worker home countries are self‐reported and verified by the platform. Education is reported by workers themselves. Worker gender is inferred by workers’ self‐reported first name using the Python library SexMachine (https://github.com/ferhatelmas/sexmachine/, accessed January 30, 2024).

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    Table 2

    Project and Test Distribution among Workers

    Design and CreativeFinanceSales and MarketingTechnologyVirtual AssistantWriting and TranslationOther
    Panel A: Worker Specialization
    19.5%1.9%8.1%42.9%13.5%13.8%0.3%
    Panel B: Project Distribution by Specialization
    Design and creative90.4%0.7%1.3%4.6%1.3%2.1%1.8%
    Finance0.3%73.4%1.5%0.5%1.1%3.0%4.6%
    Sales and marketing1.0%4.0%73.7%1.7%3.3%8.7%0.5%
    Technology and IT5.8%5.2%10.2%90.7%1.7%6.0%3.4%
    Virtual assistant1.2%5.0%4.0%0.7%86.4%7.1%8.1%
    Writing and translation1.2%11.0%9.3%1.8%5.4%72.9%2.0%
    Other0.1%0.6%0.1%0.1%0.7%0.2%79.5%
    Panel C: Microcredential Distribution by Specialization
    Design and creative41.9%0.9%3.4%7.2%2.9%1.6%1.9%
    Finance1.1%52.1%3.4%1.1%4.2%4.6%8.0%
    Sales and marketing3.3%3.7%34.7%5.3%7.8%6.6%3.2%
    Technology and IT23.9%19.4%23.4%69.5%34.4%12.7%20.5%
    Virtual assistant2.4%4.8%5.8%1.6%11.8%4.8%7.1%
    Writing and Translation27.4%19.1%29.4%15.4%38.9%69.9%59.4%
    • Notes: Worker project distribution. In Panel A, workers’ specialization is defined as the category of project that each worker has worked on the most. Projects and microcredentials are manually classified into the seven categories.

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    Table 3

    Returns to Signaling

    Dependent Variable
    Project Value (Log)Number of ProjectsNumber of Projects > 0Earnings
    (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)
    Number of microcredentials0.097**0.030***−0.011***0.016***0.012***−0.005***0.002+
    0.006***−0.003***7.953***5.522***−0.724
    (0.024)(0.005)(0.003)(0.002)(0.001)(0.002)(0.001)(0.001)(0.0004)(1.443)(1.102)(0.917)
    Feedback rating0.105***0.33*0.092***−0.002
    0.019**0.013**−0.010
    0.009***0.009***15.567
    26.477**22.725***
    (0.019)(0.012)(0.010)(0.022)(0.006)(0.005)(0.009)(0.002)(0.002)(25.744)(8.637)(4.353)
    Number of completed projects0.054***0.002**−0.005***−0.041*0.004***0.008***0.041***0.001***0.002***16.140
    0.810*−0.357
    (0.011)(0.001)(0.0005)(0.012)(0.001)(0.001)(0.006)(0.0001)(0.0001)(7.715)(0.353)(0.219)
    Baseline$310.84$310.84$310.840.290.290.290.180.180.18$89.45$89.45$89.45
    Fixed effectsEventWorkerNoEventWorkerNoEventWorkerNoEventWorkerNo
    Observations32,97532,97532,975178,478178,478178,478178,478178,478178,478178,478178,478178,478
    Adjusted R20.4630.3690.1010.3630.2480.1250.2730.2140.1340.0560.0180.011
    • Notes: In Columns 1–3, the unit of observation is one project. In Columns 4–12, the unit of observation is a 14 day pre‐ or post‐test period. In addition to the variables reported, all models include year dummies and cumulative (arsinh‐transformed) dollars earned on the platform. “Baseline” refers to the mean of the dependent variable. Standard errors are clustered on the worker level. The significance levels in all specifications are: *** = 0.1%, ** = 1%, * = 5%, and + = 10%.

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    Table 4

    Returns to Signaling: Conditional Difference‐in‐Differences

    Dependent Variable
    Project Value (Log)Number of ProjectsNumber of Projects > 0Earnings
    (1)(2)(3)(4)
    Treated−0.499***0.021***0.015***5.081*
    (0.083)(0.005)(0.003)(2.582)
    Number of microcredentials × Treated0.081***0.009***0.006***3.820***
    (0.021)(0.002)(0.001)(0.784)
    Number of microcredentials−0.042**−0.001−0.001−0.220
    (0.014)(0.001)(0.001)(0.148)
    Fixed effectsNoNoNoNo
    Observations10,8051,501,7611,501,7611,501,761
    Adjusted R20.1060.0350.0290.003
    Difference in pre‐trends−0.0180.0000020.000002−0.035
    (0.015)(0.000002)(0.000002)(0.023)
    • Notes: In Column 1, the unit of observation is one project. In Columns 2–4, the unit of observation is a 14‐day pre‐ or post‐test period. In addition to the variables reported, all models include year dummies, the average rating for completed projects, a dummy variable with value 1 if a worker does not have any ratings from past projects, cumulative (arsinh‐transformed) dollars earned on the platform, and the cumulative number of completed projects on the platform, measured at the time of project start. Estimation is based on CEM matching without replacement. Variables used for matching in Column 1 are: the number of completed tests, the number of completed projects, year dummies, a no‐past‐rating dummy, and cumulative earnings and past ratings. In Columns 2–4, matching is done using the same covariates as in Column 1 and the values of the dependent variable in periods t = –1, . . ., –4. “Treated” is an indicator variable that equals 1 for each worker who belongs to the treatment group and 0 otherwise. “Difference in pre‐trends” refers to an interaction term between a linear time trend and a treated group dummy variable for the pre‐test time trend (see the text for details). Standard errors are clustered on the match group level. Significance levels in all specifications are: *** = 0.1%, ** = 1%, * = 5%, and + = 10%

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    Table 5

    Returns to Signaling by Level of Experience

    Dependent Variable
    Project Value (Log)Number of ProjectsNumber of Projects > 0Earnings
    (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)
    Number of microcredentials0.144***0.046***0.017***0.015***0.003***0.007***8.384***5.799***
    (0.020)(0.008)(0.002)(0.002)(0.001)(0.001)(1.426)(1.226)
    Number of microcredentials × Number of projects/100−0.122**−0.030**−0.009−0.019+−0.024***−0.008***−5.873−1.949
    (0.047)(0.010)(0.0014)(0.10)(0.004)(0.002)(7.001)(2.174)
    Fixed effectsEventWorkerEventWorkerEventWorkerEventWorker
    Observations32,97532,975178,478178,478178,478178,478178,478178,478
    Adjusted R20.4630.3700.3630.2730.2730.2140.0560.018
    • Notes: In addition to the variables reported, all models include year dummies, an average rating for completed projects, a dummy variable with value 1 if a worker does not have ratings from past projects, cumulative (arsinh‐transformed) dollars earned on the platform, and the cumulative number of completed projects on the platform, measured at the time of project start. Standard errors are clustered on the worker level. The significance levels in all specifications are: *** = 0.1%, ** = 1%, * = 5%, and + = 10%.

    • View popup
    Table 6

    Nonlinear Returns to Signaling

    Dependent Variable
    Project Value (Log)Number of ProjectsNumber of Projects > 0Earnings
    (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)
    Number of microcredentials0.154***0.057***0.023***0.024***0.004***0.012***10.740***8.328***
    (0.029)(0.010)(0.002)(0.002)(0.001)(0.001)(1.695)(1.339)
    Number of microcredentials2/10−0.044*−0.010*−0.004**−0.004**−0.001−0.002***−1.487**−1.106**
    (0.014)(0.003)(0.001)(0.001)(0.001)(0.001)(0.382)(0.310)
    Fixed effectsEventWorkerEventWorkerEventWorkerEventWorker
    Observations32,97532,975178,478178,478178,478178,478178,478178,478
    Adjusted R20.4630.3700.3630.2470.2720.2130.0560.018
    • Notes: In addition to the variables reported, all models include year dummies, an average rating for completed projects, a dummy variable with the value 1 if a worker does not have ratings from past projects, cumulative (arsinh‐transformed) dollars earned on the platform, and the cumulative number of completed projects on the platform, measured at the time of project start. Standard errors are clustered on the worker level. The significance levels in all specifications are: *** = 0.1%, ** = 1%, * = 5%, and + = 10%.

    • View popup
    Table 7

    Return to Signaling by Project and Test Types

    Dependent Variable
    Project Value (Log)Number of ProjectsNumber of Projects > 0Earnings
    (1)(2)(3)(4)
    Panel A: Only Including Design Microcredentials
    Number of microcredentials−0.0240.0050.0039.864**
    (0.071)(0.004)(0.002)(3.698)
    Number of microcredentials × design project0.0570.052***0.027***6.208***
    (0.044)(0.007)(0.003)(1.364)
    Observations3,72641,44041,44041,440
    Panel B: Only Including Finance Microcredentials
    Number of microcredentials0.277−0.006−0.005*2.322
    (0.196)(0.004)(0.003)(2.669)
    Number of microcredentials × finance project−0.0560.026***0.018***10.450***
    (0.050)(0.004)(0.003)(2.215)
    Observations74312,89212,89212,892
    Panel C: Only Including Sales and Marketing Microcredentials
    Number of microcredentials0.1410. 012*0.00423.136+
    (0.136)(0.004)(0.003)(13.439)
    Number of microcredentials × sales and marketing project0.1250.035***0.026***−3.566
    (0.210)(0.004)(0.003)(15.688)
    Observations18,86928,88428,88428,884
    Panel D: Only Including Technology Microcredentials
    Number of microcredentials0.190****0.0002−0.002**3.271+
    (0.052)(0.001)(0.001)(1.957)
    Number of microcredentials × technology project−0.049+0.020**0.012***13.376***
    (0.025)(0.002)(0.001)(2.204)
    Observations10,776165,396165,396165,396
    Panel E: Only Including Virtual Assistant Microcredentials
    Number of microcredentials0.1800.040***0.025***11.860+
    (0.272)(0.007)(0.004)(6.639)
    Number of microcredentials × virtual assistant project−0.0460.0120.009+21.582*
    (0.260)(0.008)(0.005)(8.856)
    Observations98818,58418,58418,584
    Panel F: Only Including Writing and Translation Microcredentials
    Number of microcredentials0.0420.006*0.003*6.435***
    (0.054)(0.003)(0.001)(1.677)
    Number of microcredentials × writing and translation project0.0190.040***0.022***7.473***
    (0.025)(0.004)(0.002)(1.178)
    Observations8,394132,272132,272132,272
    • Notes: Estimates are from the fixed‐effects event‐study specification. In Column 1 the unit of observation is one project. In Columns 2–4, the unit of observation is a 14 day pre‐ or post‐test period. In addition to the variables reported, all models include year dummies, an average rating for completed projects, a dummy variable with the value 1 if the freelancer does not have ratings from past projects, cumulative (arsinh‐transformed) dollars earned on the platform, the cumulative number of completed projects on the platform, measured at the time of project start, and event fixed effects. Standard errors are clustered on the worker level. The significance levels in all specifications are: *** = 0.1%, ** = 1%, * = 5%, and + = 10%.

    • View popup
    Table 8

    Returns to Signaling by Test Score

    Dependent Variable
    Log (Project Value)Number of ProjectsNumber of Projects > 0Earnings
    (1)(2)(3)(4)
    Number of microcredentials−0.012***0.00040.00040.491
    (0.003)(0.002)(0.002)(1.758)
    Number of microcredentials × standardized test score rank0.013***0.001+0.001+5.450***
    (0.002)(0.001)(0.001)(1.346)
    Fixed effectsTestTestTestTest
    Observations99,379255,674255,674255,674
    Adjusted R20.1450.2220.2220.02
    • Notes: Estimates are from event‐study specification with test fixed effects. In addition to the variables reported, all models include year dummies, an average rating for completed projects, a dummy variable with the value 1 if a worker does not have ratings from past projects, cumulative (arsinh‐transformed) dollars earned on the platform, and the cumulative number of completed projects on the platform, measured at the time of project start. The significance levels in all specifications are: *** = 0.1%, ** = 1%, * = 5%, and + = 10%.

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    • 0519-10226R3_supp.pdf
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Do Microcredentials Help New Workers Enter the Market?
Otto Kässi, Vili Lehdonvirta
Journal of Human Resources Jul 2024, 59 (4) 1284-1318; DOI: 10.3368/jhr.0519-10226R3

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Do Microcredentials Help New Workers Enter the Market?
Otto Kässi, Vili Lehdonvirta
Journal of Human Resources Jul 2024, 59 (4) 1284-1318; DOI: 10.3368/jhr.0519-10226R3
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