Early Labor Market Prospects and Family Formation

Notes: Marginal effects are presented. Standard errors (in parentheses) are clustered at the municipality ^* cohort (j × c) level. Model 1 is estimated using the sample of students observed three years after graduation from compulsory school, including dropouts. Since not all students in compulsory school enrolled in upper secondary school, P_cj and ϕ_cj are measured at the municipality ^* cohort (j × c) level, where j stands for municipality of residence at age 16 (as information on the municipality of residence during the last year of compulsory schooling is only available from the upper secondary application register) and c stands for the year the individual finishes compulsory school. Models 2–5 are estimated using the sample of students observed in the year of (predicted) graduation, including dropouts. We estimate Model 2 conditional on enrolling in upper secondary school at age 16, Model 3 conditional on enrolling in vocational studies, Model 4 conditional on enrolling in vocational studies at age 16, and Model 5 conditional on enrolling in vocational studies at age 16 and dropping out. Unconditional estimations of Models 2–4 yield very similar results (not shown). Significance: ^*p < 0.10, ^**p < 0.05, ^***p < 0.01.

Notes: Marginal effects are presented. Standard errors (in parentheses) are clustered at the municipality ^* cohort (j × c) level. Each model is estimated for vocational students observed in the year of (predicted) graduation. Significance: ^*p < 0.10, ^**p < 0.05, ^***p < 0.01.

Notes: We define high‐ (low‐)‐unemployment‐rate municipalities as municipalities in which unemployment in 1994 (when the crisis was reaching its peak) was above (below) the median unemployment rate that year. Marginal effects are presented. In Model 3, we test for the equality of regression coefficients using the fully interacted form of the model. Standard errors (in parentheses) are clustered at the municipality ^* cohort (j × c) level. Significance: ^*p < 0.10, ^**p < 0.05, ^***p < 0.01.

Notes: As we have two endogenous regressors and two IVs, we cannot simply look at the first‐stage F‐statistics to test for weak instruments. We look instead at the Kleibergen–Paap Wald rk F‐statistic (which is cluster‐robust). Here, the eigenvalue (for 10 percent maximal IV size) is equal to 7.03. We show first‐stage estimates for the sample of individuals in the year of (predicted) graduation (68,241 individuals). Marginal effects are presented. Standard errors (in parentheses) are clustered at the municipality ^* cohort (j × c) level. Significance: ^*p < 0.10, ^**p < 0.05, ^***p < 0.01.

Notes: Marginal effects are presented. Standard errors (in parentheses) are clustered at the municipality ^* cohort (j × c) level. Each model is estimated using the sample of students present in the year of (predicted) graduation. Significance: ^*p < 0.10, ^**p < 0.05, ^***p < 0.01.

↵^a We assume than an individual is employed (or to some extent active on the labor market) if her earnings in the current year exceed one month full‐time at the minimum wage (see Section III for details).

↵^b Annual earnings are scaled as months of full‐time minimum wage (see Section III for details).

Notes: Marginal effects are presented. Standard errors (in parentheses) are clustered at the municipality ^* cohort (j × c) level. Each model is estimated using the sample of students present in the year of (predicted) graduation. Significance: ^*p < 0.10, ^**p < 0.05, ^***p < 0.01.

Notes: Marginal effects are presented. Standard errors (in parentheses) are clustered at the municipality ^* cohort (j × c) level. Each model (except the first model in Panel A) is estimated using the sample of women observed at age 38. Significance: ^*p < 0.10, ^**p < 0.05, ^***p < 0.01.

↵^a A partnership is defined as either being married or cohabitation with a partner and common child.

↵^b Completed family formation refers to family outcomes at age 38.

Notes: Marginal effects are presented. Standard errors (in parentheses) are clustered at the municipality ^* cohort (j × c) level. Significance: ^*p < 0.10, ^**p < 0.05, ^***p < 0.01.

↵^a We measure partners’ characteristics (if in partnership) when females are 27.

↵^b Partners’ GPA refer to grades in ninth grade. Sample is reduced since we do not have GPA for all partners.

↵^c Partnership dissolution is measured by the age of 38. Each model in Panel B is estimated using the sample of women observed at age 38.