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Research ArticleArticles
Open Access

Too Scared for School?

Effects of Terrorism on Students’ Achievement

View ORCID ProfileAdi Shany
Journal of Human Resources, May 2025, 60 (3) 977-1018; DOI: https://doi.org/10.3368/jhr.0721-11759R1
Adi Shany
Adi Shany is at the Coller School of Management, Tel Aviv University .
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  • Figure 1
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    Figure 1

    Daily Terror Fatalities Within Israel During the Sample Period

    Notes: The figure plots daily Israeli fatalities (civilians and security forces) from terror attacks within Israel excluding the West Bank and Gaza Strip from November 2000 through December 2005. Shaded areas represent matriculation exam periods.

  • Figure 2
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    Figure 2

    Distribution of Terror Fatalities Across Israel’s Natural Regions, 2001–2005

    Notes: Panel A presents the distribution of all Israeli fatalities (civilians and security forces) from terror attacks across Israel’s natural regions excluding the West Bank and Gaza Strip from November 2000 through December 2005. Panel B presents the same data for fatalities from terror attacks occurring during examination periods from November 2000 through December 2005.

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    Figure 3

    Effect of Cumulative Terror Fatalities on Matriculation Exam Scores by Time Windows

    Notes: The figure plots the coefficients and their 90 percent confidence intervals from different specifications of Equation 1. Standardized matriculation exam scores were regressed on the number of Israeli fatalities from a terror attack in the student’s area within an n-day window preceding the exam, with each specification allowing for a different value of n from zero to 15, where n = 0 refers to the day of the exam but before the exam started. The regressions also include student-by-exam-period fixed effects, fixed effects for exam subject, fixed effects for proficiency level (for both the subject and the specific exam), and an indicator for a retake exam. Standard errors are clustered at the area and date level.

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    Figure 4

    Effect of Daily Terror Fatalities on Matriculation Score in the Eight Days Before and After the Exam

    Notes: The figure plots βj coefficients and their 90 percent confidence intervals from a regression of Equation 2, where j runs from −8 to 8. The dependent variable is the standardized matriculation exam score, and the independent variable is the number of Israeli fatalities from a terror attack in the student’s area within the eight days prior to the exam, on the day of the exam, and within eight days after the exam, allowing for a separate effect on each day. The regression also includes student-by-exam-period fixed effects, fixed effects for exam subject, fixed effects for proficiency level (for both the subject and the specific exam), and an indicator for a retake exam. Standard errors are clustered at the area and date level.

  • Figure 5
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    Figure 5

    Effect of Terror Fatalities on the Probability of Receiving a Given Score on a Matriculation Exam

    Notes: The figure plots the coefficients and 90 percent confidence intervals of β from specifications similar to Equation 1, with n = 4, where the dependent variable is not the standardized test score, but an indicator for receiving a test score higher than a certain threshold for different values of thresholds. Score thresholds run from 55 (the minimum passing score) to 95. The regressions also include student-by-exam-period fixed effects, fixed effects for exam subject, fixed effects for proficiency level (for both the subject and the exam), and an indicator for a retake exam. Standard errors are clustered at the area and date level.

  • Figure 6
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    Figure 6

    Nonlinear Effect of Terror Fatalities on Matriculation Score by Intensity

    Notes: The figure plots the coefficients and 90 percent confidence intervals from regressions of standardized matriculation exam scores on a dummy variable that indicates whether a terror attack causing more than a given number of Israeli fatalities occurred in the examinee’s area within four days of the exam. The regressions also include student-by-exam-period fixed effects, fixed effects for exam subject, fixed effects for proficiency level (for both the subject and the exam), and an indicator for a retake exam. Standard errors are clustered at the area and date level.

Tables

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    Table 1

    Descriptive Statistics: Exam and Student Variables

    Quantiles
    VariableMeanSD0.100.250.500.750.90
    Panel A: Exam-Level Data (N = 1,950,618)
    Exam score72.3119.024763758694
    Internal school score78.5114.656070809096
    Exam credit units1.7631.08011123
    Retake exam0.0650.24700000
    Exam preceding a retake0.0480.21400000
    Failed exam0.1520.35900001
    Days between exams (by student)8.4376.5202471216
    Panel B: Student-Level Data (N = 248,033)
    1. Matriculation outcomes:
     Obtained a matriculation diploma0.7480.43400111
     Matriculation composite score77.1910.886370788590
     Total matriculation credit units24.706.2651721262931
     # Exams all high school years13.034.099811131618
     # Exams 12th grade7.8802.6674681011
    2. Background characteristics:
     Religiosity school0.1700.37600001
     Female0.5460.49800111
     Father’s years of education12.024.756711121517
     Mother’s years of education12.174.503812121517
     Number of siblings1.1751.25600123
     Native0.8100.39201111
     Former Soviet Union ethnicity0.1880.39000001
     Asia–Africa ethnicity0.2370.42500001
     Europe–America ethnicity0.1320.33800001
     Ethiopian ethnicity0.0170.13100000
    • Notes: The table reports descriptive statistics for the sample of all 12th-grade students in the regular Jewish state system who took matriculation exams during the years 2001–2005. Means and standard deviations for exam-level data are reported in Panel A for 1,950,618 exams; means and standard deviations for student-level data are reported in Panel B for 248,033 students.

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    Table 2

    Descriptive Statistics: Terror Fatalities for Different Time Windows Preceding an Exam

    % with Positive # of FatalitiesConditional on Positive # of Fatalities
    Time Window (Days)ExamsStudentsMeanSDMin.Max.
    (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)
    00.1020.8003.9774.021119
    10.3051.9273.2514.967119
    20.6334.1064.4765.182121
    30.8955.7275.4377.425126
    41.2926.8635.9246.781126
    51.4487.4486.6027.326126
    61.5417.7917.2727.722126
    72.0269.6496.7427.050126
    82.47211.727.9698.548126
    92.66612.608.3428.686126
    102.78813.148.0738.639126
    113.48713.989.5588.800126
    123.78514.9810.049.418126
    133.87215.129.9099.381126
    144.25816.059.8339.247126
    155.02617.899.3489.036126
    • Notes: The table reports descriptive statistics for the variable of interest: the number of fatalities from terror attacks in the examinee’s area for time windows running from zero (the day of the exam but before the exam starts) to 15 days before a given exam. Columns 1 and 2 report the percentage of exams and students, respectively, with a positive number of terror fatalities in the relevant time window. Columns 3, 4, 5, and 6 report the means, standard deviations, and extreme values for the number of fatalities in the relevant time window conditional on a positive number of fatalities.

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    Table 3

    Short-Term Effect of Terror Fatalities on Matriculation Scores

    (1)(2)(3)(4)
    # Fatalities (4-day window)−0.0050***−0.0044***−0.0040*−0.0056*
    (0.0015)(0.0012)(0.0023)(0.0033)
    Fixed effects
     Student by exam periodx
     Subjectxxxx
     Exam periodxxx
     Studentx
     School by exam periodx
     Area by exam periodx
    Schools420420420420
    Students248,033248,033248,033248,033
    N (Exams)1,950,6181,950,6181,950,6181,950,618
    • Notes: Standard errors reported in parentheses are clustered at the area and date level. Each cell in the table represents a separate regression. The dependent variable is the standardized matriculation exam score. The independent variable is the number of Israeli fatalities from a terror attack in the student’s area within the four days preceding the exam. All regressions include fixed effects for proficiency level (for both the subject and the specific exam) and an indicator for a retake exam. Regressions without student-by-exam-period or student fixed effects include student controls (a gender dummy, both parents’ years of schooling, number of siblings, a born-in-Israel indicator, and an ethnic-origin indicator). The sample comprises all 12th-grade students in the regular Jewish state system who took matriculation exams during the years 2001–2005. *p < 0.10, **p < 0.05, ***p < 0.01.

    • View popup
    Table 4

    Nonlinear Short-Term Effect of Terror Fatalities on Matriculation Scores

    (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)
    # Fatalities−0.0086**−0.0056**
    (0.0041)(0.0022)
    # Fatalities²0.0002
    (0.0002)
    # Fatalities > 00.0100–0.02840.0023
    (0.0235)(0.0180)(0.0215)
    # Fatalities > 5–0.0828***–0.0675***
    (0.0196)(0.0224)
    # Fatalities > 10–0.1034***–0.1044***
    (0.0302)(0.0303)
    Fixed effects
     Student by exam periodxxxxxx
     Subjectxxxxxx
    Schools420420420420420420
    Students248,033248,033248,033248,033248,033248,033
    N (Exams)1,950,6181,950,6181,950,6181,950,6181,950,6181,950,618
    • Notes: Standard errors reported in parentheses are clustered at the area and date level. Each column in the table represents a separate regression. The dependent variable is the standardized matriculation exam score. The independent variable in the first row is the number of Israeli fatalities from a terror attack in the student’s area within the four days preceding the exam. The independent variable in the second row is the quadratic term of the number of Israeli fatalities from a terror attack in the student’s area within the four days preceding the exam. The independent variables in the remaining rows are indicators for a terror attack in the student’s area in the four days preceding the exam. The third row refers to terror attacks causing at least one fatality, the fourth row refers to attacks causing more than five fatalities, and the fifth row refers to attacks causing more than ten fatalities. In Columns 3–5 each indicator is analyzed separately. In Column 6 the analysis incorporates all three indicators, such that the third row refers to attacks causing one to five fatalities, the fourth row refers to attacks causing six to ten fatalities, and the fifth row refers to attacks causing more than ten fatalities. All regressions include fixed effects for proficiency level (for both the subject and the exam) and an indicator for a retake exam. The sample comprises all 12th-grade students in the regular Jewish state system who took matriculation exams during the years 2001–2005. *p < 0.10, **p < 0.05, ***p < 0.01.

    • View popup
    Table 5

    Short-Term Effect of Terror Fatalities on Matriculation Scores by Distance

    (1)(2)(3)(4)
    # Fatalities in own area–0.0050***–0.0049***–0.0047***–0.0047***
    (0.0015)(0.0015)(0.0015)(0.0015)
    # Fatalities in rest of subdistrict0.00020.00020.00030.0003
    (0.0018)(0.0018)(0.0018)(0.0018)
    # Fatalities in rest of district0.01030.01100.0110
    (0.0066)(0.0067)(0.0067)
    # Fatalities in rest of country0.0012
    (0.0008)
    # Fatalities in rest of country (including West Bank and Gaza Strip)0.0010
    (0.0008)
    p-value for difference between the above coefficients0.0030.0030.0020.003
    Fixed effects
     Student by exam periodxxxx
     Subjectxxxx
    Schools420420420420
    Students248,033248,033248,033248,033
    N (Exams)1,950,6181,950,6181,950,6181,950,618
    • Notes: Standard errors reported in parentheses are clustered at the area and date level. Each column in the table represents a separate regression. The dependent variable is the standardized matriculation exam score. The independent variable is the number of Israeli fatalities from a terror attack within the four-day window preceding the exam at increasing distance from the student: (i) in the student’s own area (natural region), (ii) in the student’s subdistrict but outside the student’s area, (iii) in the student’s district but outside the student’s subdistrict, and (iv) in Israel but outside the student’s district (with the West Bank and Gaza Strip excluded in the fourth row and included in the fifth row). All regressions include fixed effects for proficiency level (for both the subject and the exam) and an indicator for a retake exam. Regressions without student-by-exam-period or student fixed effects include student controls (a gender dummy, both parents’ years of schooling, number of siblings, a born-in-Israel indicator, and an ethnic-origin indicator). The sample comprises all 12th-grade students in the regular Jewish state system who took matriculation exams during the years 2001–2005. *p < 0.10, **p < 0.05, ***p < 0.01.

    • View popup
    Table 6

    Heterogeneity in the Effect of Terror Fatalities on Matriculation Scores Across Subpopulations

    By GenderBy Parents’ EducationBy Religious OrientationBy Origin
    MalesFemalesHighLowReligiousSecularNativesImmigrants
    (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)
    # Fatalities (4-day window)−0.0044*−0.0052***−0.0060***−0.0041**−0.0052−0.0036**−0.0054***−0.0014
    (0.0025)(0.0013)(0.0015)(0.0016)(0.0032)(0.0016)(0.0016)(0.0029)
    p-value for coefficients equality0.70640.13380.61220.2253
    Fixed effects
     Student by exam periodxxxxxxxx
     Subjectxxxxxxxx
    Schools361377417420143278417419
    Students112,711135,322120,030136,00342,205205,828200,86647,167
    N (Exams)858,7311,091,887910,8901,039,728381,4801,569,1381,573,202377,426
    • Notes: Standard errors reported in parentheses are clustered at the area and date level. Each cell in the table represents a separate regression. The dependent variable is the standardized matriculation exam score. The independent variable is the number of Israeli fatalities from a terror attack in the student’s area within the four-day window preceding the exam. All regressions include fixed effects for proficiency level (for both the subject and the specific exam) and an indicator for a retake exam. The sample comprises all 12th-grade students in the regular Jewish state system who took matriculation exams during the years 2001–2005. *p < 0.10, **p < 0.05, ***p < 0.01.

    • View popup
    Table 7

    Heterogeneity in the Effect of Terror Fatalities on Matriculation Scores by Exam Subject Type

    STEM and Non-STEM SubjectsMandatory and Elective Subjects
    STEMNon-STEMMandatoryElective
    (1)(2)(3)(4)
    # Fatalities (4-day window)–0.0056**–0.0055***–0.0035**–0.0081***
    (0.0027)(0.0018)(0.0017)(0.0026)
    p-value for coefficient equality0.98640.1202
    Fixed effects
     Student by exam periodxxxx
     Subjectxxxx
    Schools420420420420
    Students193,787247,824247,936183,012
    N (Exams)486,4121,464,2061,562,637387,981
    • Notes: Standard errors reported in parentheses are clustered at the area and date level. Each cell in the table represents a separate regression. The dependent variable is the standardized matriculation exam score. The independent variable is the number of Israeli fatalities from a terror attack in the student’s area within the four-day window preceding the exam. All regressions include fixed effects for proficiency level (for both the subject and the specific exam) and an indicator for a retake exam. The sample comprises all 12th-grade students in the regular Jewish state system who took matriculation exams during the years 2001–2005. *p < 0.10, **p < 0.05, ***p < 0.01.

    • View popup
    Table 8

    Effect of Short-Term Exposure to Terror on Matriculation Outcomes with Long-Term Implications

    Received a Matriculation Certificate (1 = Yes, 0 = No)Matriculation Composite Score
    (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)
    Panel A
    Average fatalities across all exams–0.004–0.005–0.004–0.195*–0.194*–0.176
    (0.003)(0.004)(0.004)(0.100)(0.110)(0.107)
    # Fatalities during spring semester0.00015–0.00014
    (0.00018)(0.00502)
    # Fatalities during academic year–0.00003–0.00239
    (0.00013)(0.00366)
    Panel B
    # Exposed exams with # fatalities > 5–0.005–0.006–0.004–0.475**–0.470**–0.444**
    (0.007)(0.007)(0.007)(0.197)(0.212)(0.208)
    # Fatalities during spring semester0.00011–0.00040
    (0.00017)(0.00492)
    # Fatalities during academic year–0.00006–0.00259
    (0.00013)(0.00358)
    Fixed effects
     Schoolxxxxxx
     Yearxxxxxx
     # Examsxxxxxx
    Schools420420420420420420
    N (Students)248,033248,033248,033248,033248,033248,033
    • Notes: Standard errors reported in parentheses are clustered at the school level. Each column in each panel in the table represents a separate regression. Each observation is a student. In Columns 1–3, the dependent variable is a dummy variable that is equal to one if the student received a matriculation certificate. In Columns 4–6, the dependent variable is the matriculation composite score. In Panel A the independent variable in the first row is the intensity of exposure, calculated as the average of any fatalities from attacks occurring in the student’s area during the four days before a matriculation exam across all exams taken by the student in the 12th grade. In Panel B the independent variable in the first row is the number of exams exposed to terror attacks causing more than five fatalities in the preceding four-day window. In each panel, the independent variable in the second row is total fatalities in the student’s area during the spring semester when the student was in the 12th grade, and the independent variable in the third row is total fatalities in the student’s area during the academic year when the student was in the 12th grade. All specifications include student controls (a gender dummy, both parents’ years of schooling, number of siblings, a born-in-Israel indicator, and a set of indicators for ethnicity), school fixed effects, year fixed effects, and fixed effects for the number of exams taken in the 12th grade. The sample comprises all 12th-grade students in the regular Jewish state system who took matriculation exams during the years 2001–2005. *p < 0.10, **p < 0.05, ***p < 0.01.

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Journal of Human Resources: 60 (3)
Journal of Human Resources
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1 May 2025
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Too Scared for School?
Adi Shany
Journal of Human Resources May 2025, 60 (3) 977-1018; DOI: 10.3368/jhr.0721-11759R1

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Too Scared for School?
Adi Shany
Journal of Human Resources May 2025, 60 (3) 977-1018; DOI: 10.3368/jhr.0721-11759R1
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  • Article
    • Abstract
    • I. Introduction
    • II. Background
    • III. Data and Summary Statistics
    • IV. The Effect of Terror on Exam Performance
    • V. Long-Term Consequences of the Short-Term Effect of Terror Exposure
    • VI. Conclusion
    • Acknowledgments
    • Footnotes
    • References
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