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Research ArticleArticles
Open Access

Free Movement of Workers and Native Demand for Tertiary Education

View ORCID ProfileMirjam Bächli and View ORCID ProfileTeodora Tsankova
Journal of Human Resources, November 2025, 60 (6) 2038-2070; DOI: https://doi.org/10.3368/jhr.0721-11805R2
Mirjam Bächli
Mirjam Bächli is a Postdoctoral Researcher in Economics at the University of Lausanne .
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  • For correspondence: mirjam.baechli{at}unil.ch
Teodora Tsankova
Teodora Tsankova is an Assistant Professor of Economics at Tilburg University .
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  • For correspondence: t.n.tsankova{at}tilburguniversity.edu
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  • Figure 1
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    Figure 1

    Tertiary Institutions in Affected and Nonaffected Areas in 2017

    Source: Swisstopo.

    Notes: The map shows Switzerland’s 106 commuting zones split into affected (gray) and nonaffected units (white) and the location of tertiary institutions by institutional type.

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    Figure 2

    Share of Cross-Border Commuters and Travel Time

    Source: FSO.

    Notes: The figure shows estimates from a locally weighted regression of the share of cross-border commuters in 1997 (Panel A) and 2017 (Panel B) relative to 1995 employment on travel time to the closest Swiss border crossing. The unit of observation is the commuting zone. The dashed line plots the function exp(−0.05 × Travel time) rescaled by ten in Panel A and five in Panel B. The vertical line is drawn at 30 minutes travel time.

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    Figure 3

    Exposure to Cross-Border Commuters by Educational Level

    Source: SESS.

    Notes: The figure shows difference-in-differences estimates using biennial data at the commuting zone level for the period 1996–2016. The reference year is 2000. The vertical lines indicate the beginning of the transition period (2002) and of the post-reform period (2007). The dependent variable is the share of cross-border commuters in total employment by educational level. Observations are weighed by the number of total employees in 1996. Standard errors are clustered at the commuting zone level; 95 percent confidence intervals are shown.

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    Figure 4

    Native Enrollment Rate by Institutional Type

    Source: SHIS-studex.

    Notes: The figure shows difference-in-differences estimates using annual data at the commuting zone level for the period 1991–2017. The reference year is 2001. The vertical lines indicate the beginning of the transition period (2002) and of the post-reform period (2007). The dependent variable is the share of native first-year students in the birth cohort by institutional type. Observations are weighed by the cohort size in 1997. Standard errors are clustered at the commuting zone level; 95 percent confidence intervals are shown.

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    Figure 5

    Native Enrollment Rate by Type of Study Field at Universities of Applied Sciences

    Source: SHIS-studex.

    Notes: The figure shows difference-in-differences estimates using annual data at the commuting zone level for the period 1997–2017. The reference year is 2001. The vertical lines indicate the beginning of the transition period (2002) and of the post-reform period (2007). The dependent variable is the share of native first-year students in the birth cohort by study field. Observations are weighed by the cohort size in 1997. Standard errors are clustered at the commuting zone level; 95 percent confidence intervals are shown.

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    Table 1

    Characteristics of Native and Cross-Border Workers

    Native WorkersCross-Border Commuters
    MeanSDMeanSD
    Age40.5081.27840.2581.899
    Share women0.3740.0550.2950.086
    Share with lower-secondary education0.1110.0450.2630.196
    Share with upper-secondary education0.6430.0710.4950.145
    Share with academic tertiary education0.1290.0660.1480.081
    Share with professional tertiary education0.1160.0280.0940.050
    Share in no managerial position0.6140.0530.7140.074
    Share in junior or executive managerial position0.2170.0380.2030.053
    Share in medium or senior managerial position0.1690.0290.0830.037
    Share in STEM occupation0.4280.1090.6140.128
    Share in non-STEM occupation0.5720.1090.3860.128
    • Source: SESS.

    • Notes: The observation period is 1996–2016. Data are at the commuting zone level. Lower-secondary level of education is compulsory education as highest degree, upper-secondary is a degree from an upper-secondary education with or without a matura exam, academic tertiary is a degree from a university or university of applied sciences, and professional tertiary is a degree from other types of higher education institutions. Observations are weighed by the number of native workers or cross-border commuters, respectively.

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    Table 2

    Exposure to Cross-Border Commuters by Educational Level

    Outcome: Share of Cross-Border Commuters
    AllUp to Lower-SecondaryUpper-SecondaryTertiary
    (1)(2)(3)(4)
    30min * 2002–20060.013**−0.0020.021**0.005
    (0.006)(0.007)(0.008)(0.007)
    30min * 2008–20160.033***0.0140.046***0.032***
    (0.012)(0.009)(0.016)(0.011)
    Mean outcome0.0720.0700.0690.069
    SD outcome0.1090.1290.1030.098
    Commuting zones106106106106
    Within 30 min35353535
    N1,1661,1661,1661,160
    • Source: SESS.

    • Notes: The table shows difference-in-differences estimates using biennial data at the commuting zone level for the period 1996–2016. The dependent variable is the share of cross-border commuters in total employment by educational level. Observations are weighed by the number of total employees in 1996. Standard errors in parentheses are clustered at the commuting zone level. *p < 0.1, **p < 0.05, ***p < 0.01.

    • View popup
    Table 3

    Cross-Border Commuters Relative to Resident Workers by Study Field

    Field of StudySTEM FieldSkill Supply of Commuters Relative to Residents
    (1)(2)
    Education00.495
    Languages00.596
    Law00.653
    Welfare00.663
    Journalism and information00.670
    Personal services00.719
    Humanities (except languages)00.728
    Social and behavioral sciences00.764
    Health10.800
    Veterinary00.819
    Business and administration00.883
    Arts01.179
    Mathematics and statistics11.318
    Biological and related sciences11.384
    Agriculture11.547
    Manufacturing and processing11.549
    Environment11.613
    Physical sciences11.652
    Engineering and engineering trades11.948
    Forestry11.968
    Information and communication  technologies (ICT)12.304
    Architecture and construction12.470
    • Sources: EHA, FSO.

    • Notes: Column 1 distinguishes between STEM and non-STEM two-digit ISCED study fields. Column 2 shows the ratio of the share of commuters trained in a study field relative to the share of residents trained in the same field according to Equation 4.

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    Table 4

    Exposure to Cross-Border Commuters by Education and Occupation

    Outcome: Share of Cross-Border Commuters
    Upper-SecondaryTertiary
    STEMNon-STEMSTEMNon-STEM
    (1)(2)(3)(4)
    30min * 2002–20060.024***0.0080.0230.004
    (0.009)(0.006)(0.014)(0.007)
    30min * 2008–20160.033**0.019*0.044**0.026**
    (0.015)(0.011)(0.020)(0.010)
    Mean outcome0.0810.0390.0960.050
    SD outcome0.1250.0630.1290.069
    Commuting zones106106106106
    Within 30 min35353535
    N848848824837
    • Source: SESS.

    • Notes: The table shows difference-in-differences estimates using biennial data at the commuting zone level for the period 1996–2010. The dependent variable is the share of cross-border commuters in total employment by educational level and occupation. Observations are weighed by the number of total employees in 1996. Standard errors in parentheses are clustered at the commuting zone level. *p < 0.1, **p < 0.05, ***p < 0.01.

    • View popup
    Table 5

    Summary Statistics

    Affected AreasNonaffected Areas
    NMeanSDNMeanSD
    Enrollment rate7350.3540.0941,4910.3110.083
    ... at universities7350.2060.0821,4910.1700.060
    ... at universities of applied sciences7350.1480.0531,4910.1410.049
    ... in agriculture7350.0030.0021,4910.0040.003
    ... in arts and humanities7350.0390.0171,4910.0310.014
    ... in business and law7350.0920.0281,4910.0810.026
    ... in engineering7350.0500.0151,4910.0480.014
    ... in health and welfare7350.0460.0281,4910.0350.022
    ... in ICT7350.0110.0061,4910.0110.006
    ... in math and sciences7350.0330.0121,4910.0290.011
    ... in services7350.0040.0051,4910.0030.004
    ... in social sciences7350.0380.021,4910.0310.015
    Mean ln gross hourly wage3853.5730.0987813.5640.109
    ... of lower-secondary educated3853.2980.0827813.2970.083
    ... of upper-secondary educated3853.5190.0817813.4960.081
    ... of tertiary educated3853.9340.0887743.9370.085
    Share employed in management3850.1440.0317810.1410.029
    ... with lower-secondary education3850.0270.0237800.0250.023
    ... with upper-secondary education3850.1070.0267810.1020.025
    ... with tertiary education3850.4390.0937740.4390.097
    ln number employed38510.0940.90878110.3471.188
    ... with lower-secondary education3857.9610.8597817.9710.976
    ... with upper-secondary education3859.6070.8617819.8881.132
    ... with tertiary education3858.3331.1987748.7241.567
    • Sources: SESS, SHIS-studex.

    • Notes: The table shows summary statistics for native outcome variables. The observation period for the enrollment outcomes is 1997–2017 and for the labor market outcomes 1996–2016. Data are at the commuting zone level. Lower-secondary level of education is compulsory education as highest degree, upper-secondary is a degree from an upper-secondary education with or without a matura exam, and tertiary is a degree from a university or university of applied sciences. Native enrollment rate is the share of native first-year students in the birth cohort. One-digit ISCED fields of studies are considered. Observations are weighed by the native cohort size in 1997 and the number of native employees in 1996 by education group, respectively.

    • View popup
    Table 6

    Native Enrollment Rate by Institutional Type

    Outcome: Share of Native First-Year Students in Birth Cohort
    AllUniversityUniversity of Applied Sciences
    (1)(2)(3)
    30min * 2002–2006−0.000−0.0030.003
    (0.007)(0.004)(0.004)
    30min * 2008–20160.010−0.0010.011**
    (0.007)(0.006)(0.004)
    Mean outcome0.3260.1830.143
    SD outcome0.0890.0710.050
    Commuting zones106106106
    Within 30 min353535
    N2,2262,2262,226
    • Source: SHIS-studex.

    • Notes: The table shows difference-in-differences estimates using annual data at the commuting zone level for the period 1997–2017. The dependent variable is the share of native first-year students in the birth cohort by institutional type. Observations are weighed by the cohort size in 1997. Standard errors in parentheses are clustered at the commuting zone level. *p < 0.1, **p < 0.05, ***p < 0.01.

    • View popup
    Table 7

    Native Enrollment Rate by Type of Study Field

    Outcome: Share of Native First-Year Students in Birth Cohort
    STEMNon-STEMAffectedNonaffected
    (1)(2)(3)(4)
    Panel A: All Institutions
    30min * 2002–20060.000−0.001−0.001−0.000
    (0.004)(0.005)(0.003)(0.005)
    30min * 2008–20160.0020.0050.0010.007
    (0.003)(0.005)(0.003)(0.005)
    Mean outcome0.1190.2060.1030.222
    SD outcome0.0350.0610.0250.071
    Commuting zones106106106106
    Within 30 min35353535
    N2,2262,2262,2262,226
    Panel B: Universities
    30min * 2002–2006−0.001−0.003−0.001−0.002
    (0.002)(0.003)(0.002)(0.003)
    30min * 2008–2016−0.000−0.003−0.002−0.001
    (0.002)(0.004)(0.002)(0.004)
    Mean outcome0.0660.1160.0510.131
    SD outcome0.0260.0490.0190.057
    Commuting zones106106106106
    Within 30 min35353535
    N2,2262,2262,2262,226
    Panel C: Universities of Applied Sciences
    30min * 2002–20060.0010.0010.0010.002
    (0.003)(0.003)(0.002)(0.004)
    30min * 2008–20160.0030.008***0.0030.008**
    (0.003)(0.003)(0.002)(0.003)
    Mean outcome0.0530.0910.0520.091
    SD outcome0.0200.0390.0140.043
    Commuting zones106106106106
    Within 30 min35353535
    N2,2262,2262,2262,226
    • Source: SHIS-studex.

    • Notes: The table shows difference-in-differences estimates using annual data at the commuting zone level for the period 1997–2017. Affected fields are those with a relative skill supply measure above one as shown in Table 3. The dependent variable is the share of native first-year students in the birth cohort by study field and institutional type. Observations are weighed by the cohort size in 1997. Standard errors in parentheses are clustered at the commuting zone level. *p < 0.1, **p < 0.05, ***p < 0.01.

    • View popup
    Table 8

    Native Labor Market Outcomes by Educational Level

    AllUp to Lower-SecondaryUpper-SecondaryTertiary
    (1)(2)(3)(4)
    Panel A: ln Gross Hourly Wage Rate of Natives 
    30min * 2002–2006−0.003−0.004−0.0050.019**
    (0.005)(0.009)(0.006)(0.009)
    30min * 2008–2010−0.005−0.003−0.0090.029***
    (0.006)(0.013)(0.007)(0.010)
    30min * 2012–2016−0.014***−0.012−0.016***0.019*
    (0.005)(0.017)(0.005)(0.011)
    Mean outcome−0.000−0.0080.0010.001
    SD outcome0.0600.0740.0610.074
    Commuting zones106106106105
    Within 30 min35353535
    N1,1661,1661,1661,144
    Panel B: Share of Natives in a Managerial Position
    30min * 2002–20060.005*−0.0010.0010.029
    (0.003)(0.004)(0.004)(0.020)
    30min * 2008–20100.0030.007−0.0020.023
    (0.004)(0.005)(0.005)(0.020)
    30min * 2012–20160.002−0.002−0.0010.022
    (0.004)(0.004)(0.004)(0.026)
    Mean outcome−0.000−0.001−0.000−0.002
    Sd outcome0.0230.0240.0240.093
    Commuting zones106106106105
    Within 30 min35353535
    N1,1661,1661,1661,144
    Panel C: ln Number of Natives Employed
    30min * 2002–20060.0080.012−0.0180.088*
    (0.033)(0.066)(0.040)(0.053)
    30min * 2008–20100.0130.041−0.000−0.015
    (0.047)(0.088)(0.055)(0.078)
    30min * 2012–2016−0.0510.033−0.039−0.107
    (0.069)(0.061)(0.086)(0.111)
    Mean outcome9.5537.0119.1127.952
    SD outcome1.1361.0581.0731.505
    Commuting zones106106106105
    Within 30 min35353535
    N1,1661,1661,1661,144
    • Source: SESS.

    • Notes: The table shows difference-in-differences estimates using biennial data at the commuting zone level for the period 1996–2016. The sample consists of employees aged 18–40. The dependent variable in Panel A is the mean natural log of gross hourly wage of natives (residualized) in an education category, in Panel B the share of natives holding at least a middle management position (residualized) in an education category, and in Panel C the natural log of number of natives employed in education category. Observations are weighed by the number of native employees in a specific education category in 1996. Standard errors in parentheses are clustered at the commuting zone level. *p < 0.1, **p < 0.05, ***p < 0.01.

    • View popup
    Table 9

    Native Labor Market Outcomes by Education and Occupation

    Upper-SecondaryTertiary
    STEMNon-STEMSTEMNon-STEM
    (1)(2)(3)(4)
    Panel A: ln Gross Hourly Wage Rate of Natives
    30min * 2002–20060.003−0.0080.0190.022
    (0.005)(0.006)(0.012)(0.021)
    30min * 2008–20100.004−0.0090.0120.041
    (0.006)(0.007)(0.016)(0.026)
    Mean outcome0.0010.0010.003−0.001
    SD outcome0.0520.0790.0700.089
    Commuting zones10610698100
    Within 30 min35353335
    N848848766791
    Panel B: Share of Natives in a Managerial Position
    30min * 2002–20060.004−0.006−0.0200.053***
    (0.006)(0.005)(0.031)(0.016)
    30min * 2008–20100.002−0.010−0.0320.032
    (0.007)(0.006)(0.034)(0.022)
    Mean outcome−0.0000.000−0.007−0.001
    SD outcome0.0280.0320.1300.113
    Commuting zones10610698101
    Within 30 min35353335
    N848848766798
    Panel C: ln Number of Natives Employed
    30min * 2002–2006−0.0490.0120.0470.097
    (0.048)(0.048)(0.078)(0.083)
    30min * 2008–2010−0.0850.057−0.1380.077
    (0.055)(0.068)(0.090)(0.118)
    Mean outcome8.0598.6706.7267.407
    SD outcome0.9081.2241.3931.598
    Commuting zones10610698101
    Within 30 min35353335
    N848848766798
    • Source: SESS.

    • Notes: The table shows difference-in-differences estimates using biennial data at the commuting zone level for the period 1996–2010. The sample consists of employees aged 18–40. The dependent variable in Panel A is the mean natural log of gross hourly wage of natives (residualized) in an education–occupation category, in Panel B the share of natives holding at least a middle management position (residualized) in an education–occupation category, and in Panel C the natural log of number of natives employed in education–occupation category. Observations are weighed by the number of upper-secondary educated native employees in 1996 in Columns 1–2 and tertiary educated native employees in 1996 in Columns 3–4. Standard errors in parentheses are clustered at the commuting zone level. *p < 0.1, **p < 0.05, ***p < .01.

    • View popup
    Table 10

    Native Enrollment Rate at Universities of Applied Sciences by Educational Background

    Outcome: Share of Native First-Year Students in Birth Cohort
    GeneralVocationalVocational STEMVocational Non-STEMOther
    (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)
    30min * 2002–2006−0.0020.003−0.0010.004*0.002
    (0.002)(0.003)(0.002)(0.002)(0.001)
    30min * 2008–2016−0.0030.013***0.0030.009***0.001
    (0.002)(0.004)(0.002)(0.003)(0.001)
    Mean outcome0.0330.1060.0420.0590.004
    SD outcome0.0180.0400.0170.0310.005
    Commuting zones106106106106106
    Within 30 min3535353535
    N2,2262,2262,2262,2262,226
    • Source: SHIS-studex.

    • Notes: The table shows difference-in-differences estimates using annual data at the commuting zone level for the period 1997–2017. The dependent variable is the share of native first-year students in the birth cohort. Column 1 shows first-year students with a general education (general matura) and Column 2 first-year students with a vocational background (vocational or specialized education). In Columns 3 and 4, we split the individuals with a vocational background into STEM and non-STEM. Column 5 shows results for first-year students who cannot be classified as generally or vocationally educated. Observations are weighed by the cohort size in 1997. Standard errors in parentheses are clustered at the commuting zone level. *p < 0.1, **p < 0.05, ***p < 0.01.

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Free Movement of Workers and Native Demand for Tertiary Education
Mirjam Bächli, Teodora Tsankova
Journal of Human Resources Nov 2025, 60 (6) 2038-2070; DOI: 10.3368/jhr.0721-11805R2

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Free Movement of Workers and Native Demand for Tertiary Education
Mirjam Bächli, Teodora Tsankova
Journal of Human Resources Nov 2025, 60 (6) 2038-2070; DOI: 10.3368/jhr.0721-11805R2
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