Skip to main content

Main menu

  • Home
  • Content
    • Current
    • Ahead of print
    • Archive
    • Supplementary Material
  • Info for
    • Authors
    • Subscribers
    • Institutions
    • Advertisers
  • About Us
    • About Us
    • Editorial Board
  • Connect
    • Feedback
    • Help
    • Request JHR at your library
  • Alerts
  • Free Issue
  • Special Issue
  • Other Publications
    • UW Press Journals

User menu

  • Register
  • Subscribe
  • My alerts
  • Log in
  • My Cart

Search

  • Advanced search
Journal of Human Resources
  • Other Publications
    • UW Press Journals
  • Register
  • Subscribe
  • My alerts
  • Log in
  • My Cart
Journal of Human Resources

Advanced Search

  • Home
  • Content
    • Current
    • Ahead of print
    • Archive
    • Supplementary Material
  • Info for
    • Authors
    • Subscribers
    • Institutions
    • Advertisers
  • About Us
    • About Us
    • Editorial Board
  • Connect
    • Feedback
    • Help
    • Request JHR at your library
  • Alerts
  • Free Issue
  • Special Issue
  • Follow uwp on Twitter
  • Follow JHR on Bluesky
Research ArticleArticles

What Knox Achieved

Estimated Effects of Tuition-Free Community College on Attainment and Earnings

View ORCID ProfileCeleste K. Carruthers, William F. Fox and View ORCID ProfileChristopher Jepsen
Journal of Human Resources, November 2025, 60 (6) 2071-2104; DOI: https://doi.org/10.3368/jhr.1220-11359R2
Celeste K. Carruthers
Celeste Carruthers (corresponding author, ) is a Professor of Economics at the University of Tennessee-Knoxville and Research Associate at the NBER.
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
  • ORCID record for Celeste K. Carruthers
  • For correspondence: carruthers{at}utk.edu
William F. Fox
William Fox is a Professor Emeritus of Economics at the University of Tennessee-Knoxville.
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Christopher Jepsen
Christopher Jepsen is a Professor of Economics at University College Dublin, an IZA Research Fellow, and a CES-Ifo Research Fellow.
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
  • ORCID record for Christopher Jepsen
  • Article
  • Figures & Data
  • Supplemental
  • Info & Metrics
  • References
  • PDF
Loading

References

  1. ↵
    1. Abadie, Alberto,
    2. Matthew M. Chingos, and
    3. Martin R. West
    . 2018. “Endogenous Stratification in Randomized Experiments.” Review of Economics and Statistics 100(4):567–80.
    OpenUrlCrossRef
  2. ↵
    1. Alapo, Lola.
    2008. “College Fund Program Begun.” Knoxville News Sentinel, October 29, p. 9.
  3. ↵
    1. Anderson, Charity.
    2021. “Local-Level, Place-Based Scholarships: A Review of the Literature.” Educational Review 73(5):638–61.
    OpenUrl
    1. Andrews, Rodney. J.,
    2. Stephen DesJardins, and
    3. Vimal Ranchhod
    . 2010. “The Effects of the Kalamazoo Promise on College Choice.” Economics of Education Review 29(5):722–37.
    OpenUrl
  4. ↵
    1. Bartik, Timothy J.,
    2. Brad Hershbein, and
    3. Marta Lachowska
    . 2016. “The Merits of Universal Scholarship: Benefit-cost Evidence from the Kalamazoo Promise.” Journal of Benefit Cost Analysis 7(3):400–433.
    OpenUrl
    1. Bartik, Timothy J.,
    2. Brad Hershbein, and
    3. Marta Lachowska
    . 2021. “The Effects of the Kalamazoo Promise Scholarship on College Enrollment and Completion.” Journal of Human Resources 56(1):269–310.
    OpenUrlAbstract/FREE Full Text
  5. ↵
    1. Bell, Elizabeth.
    2021. “Estimating the Spillover Effects of the Tennessee Promise: Exploring Changes in Tuition, Fees, and Enrollment.” Journal of Student Financial Aid 50(1):4.
    OpenUrl
  6. ↵
    1. Bell, Elizabeth, and
    2. Denisa Gándara
    . 2021. “Can Free Community College Close Racial Disparities in Postsecondary Attainment? How Tulsa Achieves Affects Racially Minoritized Student Outcomes.” American Educational Research Journal 58(6):1142–77.
    OpenUrl
  7. ↵
    1. Bettinger, Eric,
    2. Oded Gurantz,
    3. Laura Kawano,
    4. Bruce Sacerdote, and
    5. Michael Stevens
    . 2019. “The Long-Run Impacts of Financial Aid: Evidence from California’s Cal Grant.” American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 11(1):64–94.
    OpenUrlCrossRefPubMed
  8. ↵
    1. Blomquist, Glenn C.,
    2. Paul A. Coomes,
    3. Christopher Jepsen,
    4. Brandon C. Koford, and
    5. Kenneth R. Troske
    . 2014. “Estimating the Social Value of Higher Education: Willingness to Pay for Community and Technical Colleges.” Journal of Benefit Cost Analysis 5(1):3–41.
    OpenUrl
  9. ↵
    1. Boatman, Angela, and
    2. Adela Soliz
    . 2018. “Statewide Transfer Policies and Community College Student Success.” Education Finance and Policy 13(4):449–83.
    OpenUrl
  10. ↵
    1. Boehnke, Megan.
    2015. “Obama’s Promise.” Knoxville News Sentinel, January 10, p. 1A.
  11. ↵
    1. Burland, Elizabeth,
    2. Susan Dynarski,
    3. Katherine Michelmore,
    4. Stephanie Owen, and
    5. Shwetha Raghuraman
    . 2023. “The Power of Certainty: Experimental Evidence on the Effective Design of Free Tuition Programs.” American Economic Review: Insights 5(3):293–310.
    OpenUrl
  12. ↵
    Campaign for Free College Tuition. 2022. Making Public Colleges Tuition Free: A Briefing Book for State Leaders. https://www.freecollegenow.org/briefing_book (accessed April 22, 2025).
    1. Carnevale, Anthony P.,
    2. Ban Cheah, and
    3. Emma Wenzinger
    . 2021. “The College Payoff: More Education Doesn’t Always Mean More Earnings.” Washington, DC: Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce.
    1. Carnevale, Anthony P.,
    2. Ban Cheah, and
    3. Martin Van Der Werf
    . 2022. “The Colleges Where Low-Income Students Get the Highest ROI.” Washington, DC: Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce.
  13. ↵
    1. Carruthers, Celeste K., and
    2. William F. Fox
    . 2016. “Aid for All: College Coaching, Financial Aid, and Post-Secondary Persistence in Tennessee.” Economics of Education Review 51:97–112.
    OpenUrl
  14. ↵
    1. Carruthers, Celeste K., and
    2. Thomas Sanford
    . 2018. “Way Station or Launching Pad? Unpacking the Returns to Adult Technical Education.” Journal of Public Economics 165:146–59.
    OpenUrlCrossRef
  15. ↵
    1. Conley, Timothy G., and
    2. Christopher R. Taber
    . 2011. “Inference with ‘Difference in Differences’ with a Small Number of Policy Changes.” Review of Economics and Statistics 93(1):113–25.
    OpenUrlCrossRefWeb of Science
    1. Daugherty, Lindsay, and
    2. Gabriella C. Gonzalez
    . 2016. “The Impact of the New Haven Promise Program on College Enrollment, Choice, and Persistence.” RAND Working Paper WR-1147-UIER. Santa Monica, CA: RAND.
  16. ↵
    1. de Chaisemartin, Clement, and
    2. Xavier d’Haultfoeuille
    . 2020. “Two-Way Fixed Effects Estimators with Heterogeneous Treatment Effects.” American Economic Review 110(9):2964–96.
    OpenUrlCrossRef
    1. de Chaisemartin, Clement,
    2. Xavier D’Haultfoeuille, and
    3. Antoine Deeb
    . 2019. “TWOWAYFEWEIGHTS: Stata Module to Estimate the Weights and Measure of Robustness to Treatment Effect Heterogeneity Attached to Two-way Fixed Effects Regressions.” Statistical Software Components S458611. Boston College Department of Economics.
  17. ↵
    1. Denning, Jeffrey T.,
    2. Benjamin M. Marx, and
    3. Lesley J. Turner
    . 2019. “ProPelled: The Effects of Grants on Graduation, Earnings, and Welfare.” American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 11(3):193–224.
    OpenUrlCrossRef
  18. ↵
    1. Dynarski, Susan,
    2. C. J. Libassi,
    3. Katherine Michelmore, and
    4. Stephanie Owen
    . 2021. “Closing the Gap: The Effect of Reducing Complexity and Uncertainty in College Pricing on the Choices of Low-income Students.” American Economic Review 111(6):1721–56.
    OpenUrl
  19. ↵
    1. Eng, Amanda, and
    2. Jordan Matsudaira
    . 2021. “Pell Grants and Student Success: Evidence from the Universe of Federal Aid Recipients.” Journal of Labor Economics 39:S413–S454.
    OpenUrl
  20. ↵
    1. Ferman, Bruno, and
    2. Cristine Pinto
    . 2019. “Inference in Differences-in-Differences with Few Treated Groups and Heteroskedasticity.” Review of Economics and Statistics 101(3):452–67.
    OpenUrlCrossRef
  21. ↵
    1. Ferman, Bruno,
    2. Gaute Torsvik, and
    3. Kjell Vaage
    . 2023. “Skipping the Doctor: Evidence from a Case with Extended Self-Certification of Paid Sick Leave.” Journal of Population Economics 36(2):935–71.
    OpenUrl
  22. ↵
    1. Ferrar, Rebecca.
    2008. “Free Tuition Planned for Community Colleges.” Knoxville News Sentinel, July 16.
  23. ↵
    1. Foote, Andrew, and
    2. Kevin M. Stange
    . 2019. “Attrition from Administrative Data: Problems and Solutions with an Application to Higher Education.” NBER Working Paper 30232. Cambridge, MA: NBER.
  24. ↵
    1. Gándara, Denisa, and
    2. Amy Li
    . 2020. “Promise for Whom? ‘Free-College’ Programs and Enrollments by Race and Gender Classifications at Public, 2-Year Colleges.” Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis 42(4):603–27.
    OpenUrl
  25. ↵
    1. Goodman-Bacon, Andrew.
    2021. “Difference-in-Differences with Variation in Treatment Timing.” Journal of Econometrics 225(2):254–77.
    OpenUrlCrossRef
  26. ↵
    1. Grogger, Jeffrey.
    2012. “Bounding the Effects of Social Experiments: Accounting for Attrition in Administrative Data.” Evaluation Review 36(6):449–74.
    OpenUrlCrossRefPubMed
  27. ↵
    1. Gurantz, Oded.
    2020. “What Does Free Community College Buy? Early Impacts from the Oregon Promise.” Journal of Policy Analysis and Management 39(1):11–35.
    OpenUrlCrossRef
  28. ↵
    1. Hagemann, A.
    2025. “Inference with a Single Treated Cluster.” Review of Economic Studies rdaf002. https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdaf002
  29. ↵
    1. Hansen, W. Lee, and
    2. Burton A. Weisbrod
    . 1969. “The Distribution of Costs and Direct Benefits of Public Higher Education: The Case of California.” Journal of Human Resources 4(2):176–91.
    OpenUrlCrossRefWeb of Science
  30. ↵
    1. Hershbein, Brad J.,
    2. Isabel McMullen,
    3. Brian Pittelko, and
    4. Bridget F. Timmeney
    . 2021. “Beyond Degrees: Longer Term Outcomes of the Kalamazoo Promise.” Upjohn Institute Working Paper 21-350. Kalamazoo, MI: Upjohn Institute.
  31. ↵
    1. House, Emily, and
    2. Madison Dell
    . 2020. “Keeping the Promise: Early Outcomes of Tennessee’s Tuition-Free College Initiative.” In Improving Research-Based Knowledge of College Promise Programs, ed. Laura W. Perna and Edward J. Smith, 151–72. Washington, DC: American Educational Research Association.
  32. ↵
    1. Jepsen, Christopher,
    2. Kenneth Troske, and
    3. Paul Coomes
    . 2014. “The Labor-Market Returns to Community College Degrees, Diplomas, and Certificates.” Journal of Labor Economics 32(1):95–121.
    OpenUrlCrossRefWeb of Science
  33. ↵
    1. Kast, Monica.
    2019. “Knox Promise to Help Fulfill College Dreams.” Knoxville News Sentinel, June 20, p. 1A+.
  34. ↵
    1. Lee, David S.
    2009. “Training, Wages, and Sample Selection: Estimating Sharp Bounds on Treatment Effects.” Review of Economic Studies 76(3):1071–102.
    OpenUrlCrossRefWeb of Science
  35. ↵
    1. Ma, Jennifer, and
    2. Matea Pender
    . 2021. Trends in College Pricing and Student Aid 2021. New York: College Board.
    1. MacKinnon, James G.,
    2. Morten Ørregaard Nielsen, and
    3. Matthew D. Webb
    . 2023. “Cluster-Robust Inference: A Guide to Empirical Practice.” Journal of Econometrics 232(2):272–99.
    OpenUrl
  36. ↵
    1. Michelmore, Katherine, and
    2. Susan Dynarski
    . 2017. “The Gap Within the Gap: Using Longitudinal Data to Understand Income Differences in Educational Outcomes.” AERA Open 3(1):1–18.
    OpenUrl
  37. ↵
    1. Miller-Adams, Michelle.
    2015. Promise Nation: Transforming Communities Through Place-Based Scholarships. Kalamazoo, MI: WE Upjohn Institute.
  38. ↵
    1. Miller-Adams, Michelle,
    2. Brad Hershbein,
    3. Bridget Timmeney,
    4. Isabel McMullen, and
    5. Kyle Huisman
    . 2022. Promise Programs Database. Kalamazoo, MI: W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research. Promise: Investing in Community. https://www.upjohn.org/promise/database (accessed April 22, 2025).
  39. ↵
    1. Mishory, Jen, and
    2. Peter Granville
    . 2019. Policy Design Matters for Rising ‘Free College’ Aid. Washington, DC: The Century Foundation. https://tcf.org/content/commentary/policy-design-matters-rising-free-college-aid/ (accessed April 22, 2025).
  40. ↵
    1. Mountjoy, Jack.
    2022. “Community Colleges and Upward Mobility.” American Economic Review 112(8):2580–630.
    OpenUrlCrossRef
  41. ↵
    1. Murray, Matthew N.
    2013. Fall 2013 Tennessee Business and Economic Outlook. Knoxville, TN: Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee.
  42. ↵
    1. Nguyen, Tuan D.,
    2. Jenna W. Kramer, and
    3. Brent J. Evans
    . 2019. “The Effects of Grant Aid on Student Persistence and Degree Attainment: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of the Causal Evidence.” Review of Educational Research 89(6):831–74.
    OpenUrl
  43. ↵
    1. Page, Lindsay C.,
    2. Jennifer E. Iriti,
    3. Danielle J. Lowry, and
    4. Aaron M. Anthony
    . 2019. “The Promise of Place-based Investment in Postsecondary Access and Success: Investigating the Impact of the Pittsburgh Promise.” Education Finance and Policy 14(4):572–600.
    OpenUrlCrossRef
  44. ↵
    1. Reynolds, C. Lockwood.
    2012. “Where to Attend? Estimating the Effects of Beginning College at a Two-Year Institution.” Economics of Education Review 31(4):345–62.
    OpenUrlCrossRef
  45. ↵
    1. Rouse, Ceclia E.
    1995. “Democratization or Diversion? The effect of Community Colleges on Educational Attainment.” Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 13(2):217–24.
    OpenUrl
  46. ↵
    1. Scott-Clayton, Judith, and
    2. Basit Zafar
    . 2019. “Financial Aid, Debt Management, and Socioeconomic Outcomes: Post-college Effects of Merit-Based Aid.” Journal of Public Economics 170:68–82.
    OpenUrlCrossRef
  47. ↵
    1. Swanson, Elise, and
    2. Gary Ritter
    . 2020. “Start to Finish: Examining the Impact of the El Dorado Promise Program on Postsecondary Outcomes.” Journal of Student Financial Aid 49(3):1–30.
    OpenUrl
  48. ↵
    1. Swanson, Elise,
    2. Angela R. Watson, and
    3. Gary Ritter
    . 2020. “Promises Fulfilled? A Systematic Review of the Impacts of College Promise Programs.” In Improving Research-Based Knowledge of College Promise Programs, ed. Laura W. and Edward J. Smith, 33–68. Washington, DC: American Educational Research Association.
  49. ↵
    1. Tamburin, Adam.
    2017. “Tennessee Promise Inspires National Trend.” The Tennessean, February 9.
  50. Tennessee Higher Education Commission. 2016. 2015–2016 Tennessee Higher Education Fact Book. https://www.tn.gov/content/dam/tn/thec/bureau/research/other-research/factbook/2015-2016_Fact_Book.pdf (accessed April 22, 2025).
  51. ↵
    Tennessee Higher Education Commission. 2022. College Going and the Class of 2021. https://www.tn.gov/content/dam/tn/thec/bureau/research/college-going-reports/CGR-HSSO%20Report%20Draft_Final.pdf (accessed April 22, 2025).
  52. ↵
    1. Turner, Sarah.
    2018. “The Evolution of the High Tuition, High Aid Debate.” Change: The Magazine of Higher Learning 50(3–4):142–48.
    OpenUrl
  53. ↵
    1. Webber, Douglas A.
    2016. “Are College Costs Worth It? How Ability, Major, and Debt Affect the Returns to Schooling.” Economics of Education Review 53:296–310.
    OpenUrl
PreviousNext
Back to top

In this issue

Journal of Human Resources: 60 (6)
Journal of Human Resources
Vol. 60, Issue 6
1 Nov 2025
  • Table of Contents
  • Table of Contents (PDF)
  • Cover (PDF)
  • Index by author
  • Front Matter (PDF)
Print
Download PDF
Article Alerts
Sign In to Email Alerts with your Email Address
Email Article

Thank you for your interest in spreading the word on Journal of Human Resources.

NOTE: We only request your email address so that the person you are recommending the page to knows that you wanted them to see it, and that it is not junk mail. We do not capture any email address.

Enter multiple addresses on separate lines or separate them with commas.
What Knox Achieved
(Your Name) has sent you a message from Journal of Human Resources
(Your Name) thought you would like to see the Journal of Human Resources web site.
Citation Tools
What Knox Achieved
Celeste K. Carruthers, William F. Fox, Christopher Jepsen
Journal of Human Resources Nov 2025, 60 (6) 2071-2104; DOI: 10.3368/jhr.1220-11359R2

Citation Manager Formats

  • BibTeX
  • Bookends
  • EasyBib
  • EndNote (tagged)
  • EndNote 8 (xml)
  • Medlars
  • Mendeley
  • Papers
  • RefWorks Tagged
  • Ref Manager
  • RIS
  • Zotero
Share
What Knox Achieved
Celeste K. Carruthers, William F. Fox, Christopher Jepsen
Journal of Human Resources Nov 2025, 60 (6) 2071-2104; DOI: 10.3368/jhr.1220-11359R2
Twitter logo Facebook logo Mendeley logo
  • Tweet Widget
  • Facebook Like
  • Google Plus One
Bookmark this article

Jump to section

  • Article
    • Abstract
    • I. Introduction
    • II. Policy Background and Related Research
    • III. Methods
    • IV. Results
    • V. Conclusion
    • Acknowledgments
    • Footnotes
    • References
  • Figures & Data
  • Supplemental
  • Info & Metrics
  • References
  • PDF

Related Articles

  • Google Scholar

Cited By...

  • No citing articles found.
  • Google Scholar

More in this TOC Section

  • Hours Constraints and Wage Differentials Across Firms
  • The Lock-in Effects of Information on Part-Time Unemployment Benefits
  • Clearing up Transfer Admissions Standards
Show more Articles

Similar Articles

Keywords

  • I22
  • I28
  • D83
  • H31
UW Press logo

© 2026 Board of Regents of the University of Wisconsin System

Powered by HighWire