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Research ArticleArticles

The Effect of Vaccine Mandates on Disease Spread

Evidence from College COVID-19 Mandates

View ORCID ProfileRiley K. Acton, View ORCID ProfileWenjia Cao, View ORCID ProfileEmily E. Cook, View ORCID ProfileScott A. Imberman and View ORCID ProfileMichael F. Lovenheim
Journal of Human Resources, July 2026, 61 (4) 1113-1158; DOI: https://doi.org/10.3368/jhr.0123-12743R2
Riley K. Acton
Riley K. Acton is an Assistant Professor of Economics at Miami University and a Research Fellow at IZA .
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  • For correspondence: actonr{at}miamioh.edu
Wenjia Cao
Wenjia Cao is an Assistant Professor of Economics in the School of Economics at Singapore Management University .
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  • For correspondence: wjcao{at}smu.edu.sg
Emily E. Cook
Emily E. Cook is an Assistant Professor of Economics at Texas A&M University and an affiliate of CESifo .
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  • For correspondence: ecook4{at}tamu.edu
Scott A. Imberman
Scott A. Imberman is a Professor of Economics and Education Policy at Michigan State University, a Research Associate at NBER, and a Research Fellow at CESifo .
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  • For correspondence: imberman{at}msu.edu
Michael F. Lovenheim
Michael F. Lovenheim is a Professor of Economics, Industrial and Labor Relations, and Public Policy at Cornell University, a Research Associate at NBER, and a Research Fellow at CESifo .
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  • For correspondence: mfl55{at}cornell.edu
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Abstract

Nearly 700 four-year US colleges mandated students receive COVID-19 vaccinations in fall 2021. Using data on college policies and county health, we estimate how mandates affect surrounding communities. Event studies from August to November 2021 show that mandates covering all colleges in a county reduced COVID-19 deaths by 5.6 per 100,000 persons, a 4.6 percent reduction in the US total during this period. Mandates reduced COVID cases by 504 and ICU admissions by 16.2 per 100,000, though we see no statistically significant impact on hospitalizations. Impacts are larger in counties with larger college populations and low estimated ex ante student vaccination rates.

JEL Classification:
  • H75
  • I18
  • I23
  • Received January 2023.
  • Accepted January 2024.
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Journal of Human Resources: 61 (4)
Journal of Human Resources
Vol. 61, Issue 4
1 Jul 2026
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The Effect of Vaccine Mandates on Disease Spread
Riley K. Acton, Wenjia Cao, Emily E. Cook, Scott A. Imberman, Michael F. Lovenheim
Journal of Human Resources Jul 2026, 61 (4) 1113-1158; DOI: 10.3368/jhr.0123-12743R2

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The Effect of Vaccine Mandates on Disease Spread
Riley K. Acton, Wenjia Cao, Emily E. Cook, Scott A. Imberman, Michael F. Lovenheim
Journal of Human Resources Jul 2026, 61 (4) 1113-1158; DOI: 10.3368/jhr.0123-12743R2
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Keywords

  • H75
  • I18
  • I23
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