Article Figures & Data
Figures
- Figure 1
70 y Más Effects on Mortality Rates
Notes: This figure shows the results obtained from estimating the dynamic difference-in-difference-in-differences using the count of deaths as the dependent variable in a Poisson regression including the logarithm of population as an offset. Age corresponds to two age groups: 60–69 and 70–79. It includes locality, age, and year fixed effects, as well as locality–age eligibility, year–locality eligibility, and year–age eligibility fixed effects. Standard errors are clustered at the level of treatment: locality and age. The mortality rate in the y-axis corresponds to percent changes by subtracting one from the rate ratio; that is,
. The 95 percent confidence intervals for
are computed using the delta method for univariate transformations on the coefficient estimated from the Poisson regression. The period of analysis is 2002–2011. All regressions are weighted using the population aged 60–79 in 2005. The population offset is interpolated from the 2000, 2005, and 2010 census data at the locality–age-year level. - Figure 2
Regression Discontinuity Scatterplot for Amount of 70 y Más Transfer Received
Notes: This figure visually shows the discontinuity for the amount of the 70 y Más cash transfer reported received, disaggregated by eligible and ineligible localities, as well as by periods before and after the program’s implementation. Eligibility is defined for individuals residing in localities with fewer than 2,500 inhabitants that expanded in 2007, while ineligible localities include those with populations between 30,000 and 100,000 that did not fully expand during the study period. Survey waves from 2005 and 2006 were pooled to represent the pre-program period, while waves 2008 and 2010 were pooled for the post-program period. All linear fittings are estimated at the individual level, controlling for year-of-survey fixed effects and including survey weights.
- Figure 3
Regression Discontinuity Scatterplot for Employment
Notes: This figure visually shows the discontinuity for labor force participation, disaggregated by eligible and ineligible localities, as well as by periods before and after the program’s implementation. Eligibility is defined for individuals residing in localities with fewer than 2,500 inhabitants that expanded in 2007, while ineligible localities include those with populations between 30,000 and 100,000 that did not fully expand during the study period. Survey waves from 2005 and 2006 were pooled to represent the pre-program period, while waves 2008 and 2010 were pooled for the post-program period. All linear fittings are estimated at the individual level, controlling for year-of-survey fixed effects and including survey weights.
Tables
By Disease Status By Sex CVD Non-CVD Pooled Females Males Females Males Females Males (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) After 70 y Más −0.0233*** −0.0549*** 0.0111 −0.0229 0.0545** −0.0641*** −0.0058 (0.0037) (0.0090) (0.0095) (0.0194) (0.0229) (0.0086) (0.0100) No. deaths 412,266 187,767 224,499 50,913 59,671 136,854 164,828 No. deaths eligibles 148,565 67,686 80,879 20,886 23,127 46,800 57,752 No. deaths ineligibles 263,701 120,081 143,620 30,027 36,544 90,054 107,076 No. deaths eligibles (year before coverage) 13,755 6,341 7,414 1,972 2,075 4,369 5,339 No. localities 18,797 18,797 18,797 12,873 13,318 17,495 17,860 No. locality–age cells (obs.) 375,940 375,940 375,940 257,460 266,360 349,900 357,200 No. locality–age eligible cells (obs.) 186,340 186,340 186,340 127,110 131,550 173,320 176,970 No. locality–age ineligible cells (obs.) 189,600 189,600 189,600 130,350 134,810 176,580 180,230 No. locality–age nonzero cells (obs.) 80,368 49,283 56,136 18,676 20,471 37,098 43,925 Locality controls Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Year FE Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Locality FE Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Age FE Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Year × Age eligible FE Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Year × Locality eligible FE Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Age × Locality eligible FE Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Notes: This table shows the results obtained from estimating the difference-in-difference-in-differences using the count of deaths as the dependent variable in a Poisson regression including the logarithm of population as an offset. Age corresponds to two age groups: 60–69 and 70–79. It includes locality, age, and year fixed effects, as well as locality–age eligibility, year–locality eligibility, and year–age eligibility fixed effects. Standard errors are clustered at the level of treatment: locality and age. The reported coefficient corresponds to percent changes by subtracting one from the rate ratio, that is,
. Each estimate captures the effect post-treatment for those groups in eligible localities above 70 years of age relative to deaths in noneligible localities. The period of analysis is 2002–2011. All regressions are weighted using the population aged 60–79 in 2005, and control for locality-level time-varying covariates: marginality index, progresa penetration, percentage of deaths medically certified, and lag of death registration. The population offset is interpolated from the 2000, 2005, and 2010 census data at the locality–age–year level. Number of deaths eligible corresponds to those deaths reported as residing in eligible localities above or equal to age 70, a year before the coverage. *p < 0.1, **p < 0.05, ***p < 0.01.
70 y Mas Earnings Income Employment Hours Worked Hours Worked (if >0) Seguro Popular (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) Panel A: Pooled 1(Age ≥ 70) * Eligible * Post 26.163*** −20.483 5.639 −0.218** -6.351* −0.900 0.173*** (3.129) (18.687) (42.024) (0.086) (3.343) (4.765) (0.065) R-W p-value 0.010 0.525 0.970 0.050 0.099 0.970 0.050 R-squared 0.270 0.051 0.050 0.063 0.055 0.020 0.171 Mean dep. var. 4.90 54.41 255.05 0.39 17.54 41.29 0.22 Observations 15,860 15,860 15,867 15,860 16,017 6,804 12,457 Panel B: Male 1(Age ≥ 70) * Eligible * Post 25.901*** −31.936 22.865 −0.240** −7.068 1.243 0.215*** (4.371) (40.058) (76.151) (0.099) (5.720) (6.339) (0.069) R-W p-value 0.010 0.554 0.693 0.069 0.515 0.554 0.010 R-squared 0.214 0.072 0.094 0.121 0.103 0.031 0.169 Mean dep. var. 5.62 89.33 353.29 0.58 27.19 44.49 0.22 Observations 7,719 7,719 7,728 7,719 7,853 4,799 6,068 Panel C: Female 1(Age ≥ 70) * Eligible * Post 26.593*** −6.910 0.729 −0.247** −7.598* −5.293 0.156 (3.888) (6.183) (37.592) (0.122) (4.263) (7.820) (0.133) R-W p-value 0.010 0.545 0.960 0.149 0.208 0.713 0.545 R-squared 0.389 0.045 0.029 0.038 0.030 0.023 0.177 Mean dep. var. 4.22 21.29 161.78 0.22 8.26 33.63 0.22 Observations 8,141 8,141 8,139 8,141 8,164 2,005 6,389 Weights Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Year-of-survey FE Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Notes: This table shows the results obtained from estimating a difference-in-difference-in-discontinuities regression (RD-DD) using individual-level outcomes as the dependent variable. The 1(Age ≥ 70) ∗ Eligible ∗ Post estimates show results after the 70 y Más program started between eligible and ineligible localities and before and after for those above the cutoff. 70 y Más is the self-reported amount of cash transfer received. Hours Worked (if >0) only includes non-zero hours worked. Income includes wages from job, wages from business, and secondary jobs, wages from previous months, all transfers (private and government, including 70 y Más), income from business and property, and other income not from work. Means are weighted using survey weights. Standard errors are clustered at the household level. The period of analysis before the program started is 2005 and 2006 surveys and after the program started is the 2008 and 2010 surveys. All regressions use survey weights and year-of-survey fixed effects. Observations across columns differ because we drop the upper 1 percent outliers for each outcome of interest. *p < 0.1, **p < 0.05, ***p < 0.01.
70 y Más Earnings Income Spending Food Spending Health Expenditure No. Members (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) Panel A: Pooled 1(Age ≥ 70) * Eligible * Post 27.526*** 4.282 −21.452 103.633 −10.008 −9.078 0.042 (4.129) (79.623) (94.842) (67.363) (18.109) (6.829) (0.330) R-W p-value 0.010 0.980 0.980 0.366 0.861 0.564 0.980 R-squared 0.275 0.108 0.116 0.127 0.100 0.019 0.011 Mean dep. var. 6.84 404.22 762.66 567.82 192.91 17.29 3.63 Observations 11,964 11,964 11,975 11,964 11,974 11,972 11,923 Panel B: Male 1(Age ≥ 70) * Eligible * Post 26.919*** −8.522 38.532 80.617 −5.534 −6.397 −0.518 (5.492) (102.484) (139.017) (98.610) (24.261) (12.698) (0.447) R-W p-value 0.010 0.950 0.950 0.713 0.950 0.911 0.554 R-squared 0.267 0.124 0.143 0.152 0.127 0.023 0.014 Mean dep. var. 7.95 391.31 781.00 573.18 197.02 17.35 3.74 Observations 7,493 7,493 7,495 7,499 7,493 7,509 7,437 Panel C: Female 1(Age ≥ 70) * Eligible * Post 27.440*** 13.726 −119.728 123.017 −12.373 −11.612 1.154** (5.574) (112.876) (142.511) (103.084) (31.509) (16.406) (0.511) R-W p-value 0.010 0.931 0.782 0.455 0.832 0.782 0.059 R-squared 0.275 0.088 0.085 0.098 0.068 0.022 0.011 Mean dep. var. 4.97 425.84 731.99 558.82 186.04 17.17 3.45 Observations 4,471 4,471 4,480 4,465 4,481 4,463 4,486 Weights Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Year-of-survey FE Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Notes: This table shows the results obtained from estimating a difference-in-difference-in-discontinuities regression (RD-DD) using household-level outcomes as the dependent variable. The 1(Age ≥ 70) ∗ Eligible ∗ Post estimates show results after the 70 y Más program started between eligible and ineligible localities and before and after for those above the cutoff. 70 y Más is the self-reported amount of cash transfer received. Hours Worked (if >0) only includes non-zero hours worked. Income includes wages from job, wages from business, and secondary jobs, wages from previous months, all transfers (private and government, including 70 y Más), income from business and property, and other income not from work. Means are weighted using survey weights. Standard errors are clustered at the household level. The period of analysis before the program started is 2005 and 2006 surveys, and after the program started is the 2008 and 2010 surveys. All regressions use survey weights and year-of-survey fixed effects. Observations across columns differ because we drop the upper 1 percent outliers for each outcome of interest. *p < 0.1, **p < 0.05, ***p < 0.01.
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