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Research ArticleArticles

Does Three Strikes Deter?

A Nonparametric Estimation

Eric Helland and Alexander Tabarrok
Journal of Human Resources, March 2007, XLII (2) 309-330; DOI: https://doi.org/10.3368/jhr.XLII.2.309
Eric Helland
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Alexander Tabarrok
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Abstract

We take advantage of the fortuitous randomization of trial outcome to provide a novel strategy to identify the deterrent effect exclusive of incapacitation. We compare the post-sentencing criminal activity of criminals who were convicted of a strikeable offense with those who were tried for a strikeable offense but convicted of a nonstrikeable offense. As a robustness check, we also make this comparison in states without three-strikes laws. The identification strategy lets us estimate the deterrent effect nonparametrically using data solely from the three-strikes era. We find that California’s three-strike legislation significantly reduces felony arrest rates among the class of criminals with two strikes by 17–20 percent.

  • Received January 2006.
  • Accepted July 2006.
  • © 2007 by the Board of Regents of the University of Wisconsin System

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Journal of Human Resources
Vol. XLII, Issue 2
31 Mar 2007
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Does Three Strikes Deter?
Eric Helland, Alexander Tabarrok
Journal of Human Resources Mar 2007, XLII (2) 309-330; DOI: 10.3368/jhr.XLII.2.309

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Does Three Strikes Deter?
Eric Helland, Alexander Tabarrok
Journal of Human Resources Mar 2007, XLII (2) 309-330; DOI: 10.3368/jhr.XLII.2.309
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