Abstract
This paper assesses the link between beliefs about HIV infection and fertility. I develop and estimate a dynamic discrete-choice life-cycle fertility model in which expectations about life horizon and child survival depend on perceived HIV infection. Using data containing beliefs on own status, I show that the presence of HIV reduces average life time fertility in rural Malawi by 0.15 births. Counterfactual policy simulations predict that prevention of mother-to-child transmission and HIV testing would have overall negligible impacts on fertility although testing reduces the fertility of infected women, leading to a reduction in child mortality. (JEL codes: O15, I10, J13)
This article requires a subscription to view the full text. If you have a subscription you may use the login form below to view the article. Access to this article can also be purchased.