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Research ArticleArticles
Open Access

Early Labor Market Prospects and Family Formation

Mattias Engdahl, Mathilde Godard and Oskar Nordström Skans
Published online before print May 09, 2022, 1220-11387R1; DOI: https://doi.org/10.3368/jhr.1220-11387R1
Mattias Engdahl
Mattias Engdahl is a researcher at the Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy (IFAU) in Uppsala, Sweden.
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Mathilde Godard
Mathilde Godard is a CNRS researcher at at Université Paris-Dauphine-PSL, LEDa in Paris, France.
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Oskar Nordström Skans
Oskar Nordström Skans is a professor of economics at Uppsala University, Sweden. He is also affiliated with University of Oslo, Norway; IFAU in Uppsala, Sweden and IZA in Bonn, Germany.
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Abstract

Using quasi-random variation in graduation years of Swedish vocational high-school females at the sudden onset of a deep national recession, we study how deteriorated early labor-market prospects affected economic and family outcomes during the following decades. Labor-market consequences were severe but not permanent. In contrast, family outcomes were permanently altered, in particular for low-GPA women. These women married and had children earlier, and they partnered with lower-performing spouses. Divorce and single-motherhood rates rose, and welfare-claims remained elevated for decades. This suggests that temporary shocks to female labor market prospects can propagate into long-run poverty through endogenous adjustments of marriage-quality thresholds.

Keywords:
  • Family formation
  • female labor supply
  • cost of recessions
JEL code:
  • E32
  • I26
  • J12
  • J13
  • J22
  • J31

This open access article is distributed under the terms of the CC-BY-NC-ND license. (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0) and is freely available online at: http://jhr.uwpress.org

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Journal of Human Resources: 60 (3)
Journal of Human Resources
Vol. 60, Issue 3
1 May 2025
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Early Labor Market Prospects and Family Formation
Mattias Engdahl, Mathilde Godard, Oskar Nordström Skans
Journal of Human Resources May 2022, 1220-11387R1; DOI: 10.3368/jhr.1220-11387R1

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Early Labor Market Prospects and Family Formation
Mattias Engdahl, Mathilde Godard, Oskar Nordström Skans
Journal of Human Resources May 2022, 1220-11387R1; DOI: 10.3368/jhr.1220-11387R1
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Keywords

  • Family formation
  • female labor supply
  • cost of recessions
  • E32
  • I26
  • J12
  • J13
  • J22
  • J31
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