The Great Recession’s Baby-less Recovery: The Role of Unintended Births

Abstract

U.S. fertility declined as expected during the Great Recession, but then continued to fall throughout the recovery period. This drop was more acute among young women and unmarried women, whose births are more likely to be unintended. We use a combined-survey estimation strategy to estimate birth intention consistently over time. We find that between 2007 and 2019 intended births fell by 8.5%, while unintended births fell by 22%. The decline in unintended births is primarily explained by changes in demographic characteristics of women of childbearing age, reductions in sexual activity, and shifts to more effective methods of contraception.