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Research ArticleArticles

Publish or Perish: Selective Attrition as a Unifying Explanation for Patterns in Innovation over the Career

Huifeng Yu, Gerald Marschke, Matthew B. Ross, Joseph Staudt and Bruce Weinberg
Published online before print October 07, 2022, 1219-10630R1; DOI: https://doi.org/10.3368/jhr.59.2.1219-10630R1
Huifeng Yu
Huifeng Yu is a former doctorate student at the University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, New York, USA
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Gerald Marschke
Gerald Marschke is an Associate Professor of Economics at the University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, New York, USA and Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA ()
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  • For correspondence: [email protected]
Matthew B. Ross
Matthew B. Ross is an Assistant Professor of Economics at the Claremont Graduate University, Claremont, California, USA.
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Joseph Staudt
Joseph Staudt is an Economist at the Center for Economic Studies at the U.S. Census Bureau, Suitland, Maryland, USA.
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Bruce Weinberg
Bruce Weinberg is a Professor of Economics at Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, USA and Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA.
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Abstract

Studying 5.6 million biomedical science articles published over three decades, we reconcile conflicts in a longstanding interdisciplinary literature on scientists’ life-cycle productivity by controlling for selective attrition and distinguishing between research quantity and quality. While research quality declines monotonically over the career, this decline is easily overlooked because higher “ability” authors have longer publishing careers. Our results have implications for broader questions of human capital accumulation over the career and federal research policies that shift funding to early-career researchers – while funding researchers at their most creative, these policies must be undertaken carefully because young researchers are less “able” on average.

JEL
  • J24
  • I23
  • J10

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Journal of Human Resources: 60 (3)
Journal of Human Resources
Vol. 60, Issue 3
1 May 2025
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Publish or Perish: Selective Attrition as a Unifying Explanation for Patterns in Innovation over the Career
Huifeng Yu, Gerald Marschke, Matthew B. Ross, Joseph Staudt, Bruce Weinberg
Journal of Human Resources Oct 2022, 1219-10630R1; DOI: 10.3368/jhr.59.2.1219-10630R1

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Publish or Perish: Selective Attrition as a Unifying Explanation for Patterns in Innovation over the Career
Huifeng Yu, Gerald Marschke, Matthew B. Ross, Joseph Staudt, Bruce Weinberg
Journal of Human Resources Oct 2022, 1219-10630R1; DOI: 10.3368/jhr.59.2.1219-10630R1
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  • J24
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