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Research ArticleArticles

The Effect of Risk Assessment Scores on Judicial Behavior and Defendant Outcomes

CarlyWill Sloan, George Naufal and Heather Caspers
Published online before print May 08, 2023, 0221-11470R3; DOI: https://doi.org/10.3368/jhr.0221-11470R3
CarlyWill Sloan
Sloan: United States Military Academy at West Point,
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George Naufal
Naufal: Texas A&M University and IZA,
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Heather Caspers
Caspers: Iowa Department of Human Rights, ;
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Abstract

Risk assessment has been increasingly adopted in an effort to reduce pretrial detention for poor, low-risk defendants. This paper examines the impact of risk assessment using administrative data from a large Texas County. We identify effects using a regression discontinuity that exploits the overnight implementation of a risk assessment policy. Results indicate this led to a 6.5 percent increase in nonfinancial bond and an 8.5 percent decrease in pretrial detention, though neither effect persisted beyond two months. Additionally, the policy did not increase violent pretrial crime, though there is some suggestive evidence of increases in nonviolent pretrial crime.

JEL Classification:
  • K4
  • J7

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Journal of Human Resources: 60 (3)
Journal of Human Resources
Vol. 60, Issue 3
1 May 2025
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The Effect of Risk Assessment Scores on Judicial Behavior and Defendant Outcomes
CarlyWill Sloan, George Naufal, Heather Caspers
Journal of Human Resources May 2023, 0221-11470R3; DOI: 10.3368/jhr.0221-11470R3

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The Effect of Risk Assessment Scores on Judicial Behavior and Defendant Outcomes
CarlyWill Sloan, George Naufal, Heather Caspers
Journal of Human Resources May 2023, 0221-11470R3; DOI: 10.3368/jhr.0221-11470R3
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Keywords

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