The Effect of Risk Assessment Scores on Judicial Behavior and Defendant Outcomes

Abstract

Risk assessment has been increasingly adopted in an effort to reduce pretrial detention for poor, low-risk defendants. This paper examines the impact of risk assessment using administrative data from a large Texas County. We identify effects using a regression discontinuity that exploits the overnight implementation of a risk assessment policy. Results indicate this led to a 6.5 percent increase in nonfinancial bond and an 8.5 percent decrease in pretrial detention, though neither effect persisted beyond two months. Additionally, the policy did not increase violent pretrial crime, though there is some suggestive evidence of increases in nonviolent pretrial crime.