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Research ArticleArticles
Open Access

Efficient targeting in childhood interventions

Alexander Paul, Dorthe Bleses and Michael Rosholm
Published online before print September 06, 2023, 0320-10756R4; DOI: https://doi.org/10.3368/jhr.0320-10756R4
Alexander Paul
2Alexander Paul is a manager at E.CA Economics, Berlin, Germany, and an associate of the TrygFonden’s Centre for Child Research, Denmark.
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Dorthe Bleses
3Dorthe Bleses is a professor at the School of Communication and Culture, Aarhus University, and TrygFonden’s Centre for Child Research, Aarhus, Denmark.
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Michael Rosholm
4Michael Rosholm is a professor of economics at the Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University, and an affiliate of TrygFonden’s Centre for Child Research, Aarhus, Denmark, and IZA, Bonn, Germany. Email: (corresponding author)
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Abstract

Using Danish administrative data, we address the issue of efficient targeting in childhood interventions. We define children to be in need of an intervention if they experience one or more socially undesirable outcomes in adulthood. Because interventions are very effective early in life, we then test if and to what extent indicators available at birth can predict these outcomes. We find fair to good levels of prediction accuracy for many outcomes, driven by a parsimonious set of predictors. We show that optimal weights for the construction of risk scores deviate from the weights typically used in targeted interventions.

JEL Codes:
  • I18
  • I28
  • I38

This open access article is distributed under the terms of the CC-BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0) and is freely available online at: http://jhr.uwpress.org

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Journal of Human Resources: 60 (3)
Journal of Human Resources
Vol. 60, Issue 3
1 May 2025
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Efficient targeting in childhood interventions
Alexander Paul, Dorthe Bleses, Michael Rosholm
Journal of Human Resources Sep 2023, 0320-10756R4; DOI: 10.3368/jhr.0320-10756R4

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Efficient targeting in childhood interventions
Alexander Paul, Dorthe Bleses, Michael Rosholm
Journal of Human Resources Sep 2023, 0320-10756R4; DOI: 10.3368/jhr.0320-10756R4
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Keywords

  • I18
  • I28
  • I38
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