Return Migration Decisions and Declining Earnings

Abstract

Using a novel panel data set of recent immigrants to the U.S. (2005–2007) from individual-level linked U.S. Census Bureau data and Internal Revenue Service records, we measure the impact of return migration on immigrants’ earnings growth and earnings assimilation. We show that by 10 years after arrival almost 40 percent of recent immigrants have return migrated. We show, for the first time, that return migrants experience downward earnings mobility over two to three years prior to their return migration; suggesting that declining earnings are closely related to emigration decisions.