A Peace Baby Boom? Evidence from Colombia’s Peace Agreement

Abstract

Violence affects households’ preferences, perceptions, and constraints regarding fertility choices. What happens when violence ends? Using administrative data from Colombia, we find that the end of a long internal conflict differentially increased fertility by 3.2 percent in areas exposed to violence. The effect is present across all reproductive ages and larger in municipalities with higher levels of violence exposure at baseline. This differential fertility increase is not driven by health supply indicators, by the mortality of newborns and infants, or by differential migration. We provide evidence consistent with an increased perception of security, higher returns for childbearing, and more parental investment.