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Research ArticleArticles

A Peace Baby Boom? Evidence from Colombia’s Peace Agreement

María Elvira Guerra-Cújar, Mounu Prem, Paul Rodríguez-Lesmes and Juan F. Vargas
Published online before print May 08, 2024, 1222-12701R1; DOI: https://doi.org/10.3368/jhr.1222-12701R1
María Elvira Guerra-Cújar
†School of Economics, Universidad del Rosario. E-mail:
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Mounu Prem
‡Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance, Universidad del Rosario, CEPR. E-mail:
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Paul Rodríguez-Lesmes
§School of Economics, Universidad del Rosario. E-mail:
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Juan F. Vargas
¶University of Turin (ESOMAS) and Collegio Carlo Alberto. email:
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Abstract

Violence affects households’ preferences, perceptions, and constraints regarding fertility choices. What happens when violence ends? Using administrative data from Colombia, we find that the end of a long internal conflict differentially increased fertility by 3.2 percent in areas exposed to violence. The effect is present across all reproductive ages and larger in municipalities with higher levels of violence exposure at baseline. This differential fertility increase is not driven by health supply indicators, by the mortality of newborns and infants, or by differential migration. We provide evidence consistent with an increased perception of security, higher returns for childbearing, and more parental investment.

JEL Codes:
  • I12
  • I15
Keywords:
  • fertility
  • pregnancy
  • armed conflict
  • violence
  • peace

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Journal of Human Resources: 60 (3)
Journal of Human Resources
Vol. 60, Issue 3
1 May 2025
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A Peace Baby Boom? Evidence from Colombia’s Peace Agreement
María Elvira Guerra-Cújar, Mounu Prem, Paul Rodríguez-Lesmes, Juan F. Vargas
Journal of Human Resources May 2024, 1222-12701R1; DOI: 10.3368/jhr.1222-12701R1

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A Peace Baby Boom? Evidence from Colombia’s Peace Agreement
María Elvira Guerra-Cújar, Mounu Prem, Paul Rodríguez-Lesmes, Juan F. Vargas
Journal of Human Resources May 2024, 1222-12701R1; DOI: 10.3368/jhr.1222-12701R1
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Keywords

  • I12
  • I15
  • Fertility
  • pregnancy
  • armed conflict
  • violence
  • peace
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