Commodity Revenue Shocks and Mortality

Abstract

We look at the relationship between crop revenues and mortality in the Midwest from 1980 to 2019. For identification, we combine an exposure design with a two-way (i.e., county and year) fixed effects estimator. On average, a decrease in soybean revenue is associated with an increase in mortality: A 10-percent decrease in soybean revenues is associated with a 0.1-percent increase in the age-adjusted all-cause death rate, or about 170 more deaths throughout the Midwest in 2024. Our findings are driven by individuals 65 and older, by women, and they appear mediated by cardiovascular disease and mental health-related issues.