The Demand Side of Africa’s Demographic Transition

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between desired fertility, wealth, and female employment in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). While ideal family size is generally higher at all levels of wealth in SSA, the gap relative to other regions is substantially larger among poorer households and narrows with wealth. Additionally, poorer women in SSA are less likely to work for wages. Examining the relationship between these two patterns reveals a negative correlation between desired fertility and wage work prevalence across SSA provinces, a trend virtually absent in other regions. Furthermore, within SSA provinces, increases in the share of women engaged in wage work over time are associated with a flatter wealth-desired fertility gradient.