The Demand Side of Africa’s Demographic Transition

References

1. 1. Aaronson, Daniel,
   2. Rajeev Dehejia,
   3. Andrew Jordan,
   4. Cristian Pop-Eleches,
   5. Cyrus Samii, and
   6. Karl Schulze

   , “The Effect of Fertility on Mothers’ Labor Supply over the Last Two Centuries,” The Economic Journal, 08 2020, 131 (633), 1–32.

   OpenUrl
2. 1. Ager, Philipp,
   2. Benedikt Herz, and
   3. Markus Brueckner

   , “Structural Change and the Fertility Transition,” The Review of Economics and Statistics, 10 2020, 102 (4), 806–822.

   OpenUrl
3. 1. Alesina, Alberto,
   2. Paola Giuliano, and
   3. Nathan Nunn

   , “ On the Origins of Gender Roles: Women and the Plough *,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 05 2013, 128 (2), 469–530.

   OpenUrlCrossRefWeb of Science
4. 1. Ashraf, Nava,
   2. Erica Field,
   3. Alessandra Voena, and
   4. Roberta Ziparo

   , “Gendered Spheres of Learning and Household Decision Making over Fertility,” Working Paper, 2022.
5. 1. Ashraf, Nava,
   2. Erica Field and
   3. Jean Lee,

   “Household Bargaining and Excess Fertility: An Experimental Study in Zambia,” American Economic Review, July 2014, 104 (7), 2210–37.

   OpenUrlCrossRef
6. 1. Bandiera, Oriana,
   2. Ahmed Elsayed, and
   3. Andrea Smurra

   , “Jobs of the World Project: Towards a Better Understanding of Labor Markets in Low-and Middle-Income Countries,” 2022.
7. 1. Bandiera, Oriana,
   2. Ahmed Elsayed,
   3. Andrea Smurra, and
   4. Céline Zipfel,

   “Young Adults and Labor Markets in Africa,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 02 2022, 36 (1), 81–100.

   OpenUrl
8. 1. Bandiera, Oriana,
   2. Niklas Buehren,
   3. Robin Burgess,
   4. Markus Goldstein,
   5. Selim Gulesci,
   6. Imran Rasul, and
   7. Munshi Sulaiman

   , “Women’s Empowerment in Action: Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial in Africa,” American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, January 2020, 12 (1), 210–59.

   OpenUrl
9. 1. Bau, Natalie,
   2. David Henning,
   3. Corinne Low, and
   4. Bryce Millett Steinberg,

   “Family Planning, Now and Later: Infertility Fear and Contraception Take-Up,” February 2024. Working paper.
10. 1. Becker, Gary S. and
    2. H. Gregg Lewis,

    “On the Interaction between the Quantity and Quality of Children,” Journal of Political Economy, 1973, 81 (2, Part 2), S279–S288.

    OpenUrlCrossRefWeb of Science
11. 1. Berge, Lars I. O.,
    2. Kjetil Bjorvatn,
    3. Fortunata Makene,
    4. Linda Helgesson Sekei,
    5. Vincent Somville, and
    6. Bertil Tungodde

    , “On the Doorstep of Adulthood: Empowering Economic and Fertility Choices of Young Women,” HCEO Working Paper, 2022, 2022-035.
12. 1. Berniell, Inés,
    2. Lucila Berniell,
    3. Dolores de la Mata,
    4. María Edo, and
    5. Mariana Marchionni,

    “Motherhood and flexible jobs: Evidence from Latin American countries,” World Development, 2023, 167, 106225.

    OpenUrl
13. 1. Bhalotra, Sonia R.,
    2. Damian Clarke, and
    3. Selma Walther

    , “Women’s Careers and Family Formation,” in Klaus F. Zimmermann, ed., Handbook of Labor, Human Resources and Population Economics, October: Springer Nature, 2023. IZA DP No. 15639.
14. 1. Bongaarts, John,

    “Africa’s Unique Fertility Transition,” Population and Development Review, 2017, 43 (S1), 39–58.

    OpenUrlCrossRef
15. 1. Bongaarts, John,

    “Trends in fertility and fertility preferences in sub-Saharan Africa: the roles of education and family planning programs,” Genus, 2020, 76 (1), 32.

    OpenUrl
16. 1. Bongaarts, John and
    2. John Casterline,

    “Fertility Transition: Is sub-Saharan Africa Different?,” Population and Development Review, 2013, 38, 153–168.

    OpenUrlCrossRefPubMed
17. 1. Boserup, Ester,

    Woman’s Role in Economic Development, New York: St. Martin’s Press, 1970.
18. 1. Boserup, Ester,

    “Economic and Demographic Interrelationships in Sub-Saharan Africa,” Population and Development Review, 1985, 11 (3), 383–397.

    OpenUrlCrossRefWeb of Science
19. 1. Bradley, Sarah E.K.,
    2. Trevor N. Croft,
    3. Joy D. Fishel, and
    4. Charles F. Westoff,

    “Revising Unmet Need for Family Planning,” DHS Analytical Studies No. 25. Calverton, Maryland, USA: ICF International, 2012.
20. 1. Büuttner, Nicolas,
    2. Michael Grimm,
    3. Isabel Güunther,
    4. Kenneth Harttgen, and
    5. Stephan Klasen

    , “The Fertility Transition in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Role of Structural Change,” Demography, 10 2024, 61 (5), 1585–1611.

    OpenUrlPubMed
21. 1. Caldwell, John C. and
    2. Pat Caldwell,

    “The Cultural Context of High Fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa,” Population and Development Review, 1987, 13 (3), 409–437.

    OpenUrlCrossRefWeb of Science
22. 1. Caldwell, John C. and
    2. Pat Caldwell,

    “High Fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa,” Scientific American, 1990, 262 (5), 118–125. Accessed 16 Jan. 2024.

    OpenUrlPubMedWeb of Science
23. 1. Canning, David,
    2. Marie Christelle Mabeu, and
    3. Roland Pongou,

    “Colonial Origins and Fertility: Can the Market Overcome History?,” Working Paper, 2022.
24. 1. Canning, David,
    2. Sangeeta Raja, and
    3. Abdo S. Yazbeck,

    “Speeding the Demographic Transition,” in David Canning, Sangeeta Raja, and Abdo S. Yazbeck, eds., Africa’s Demographic Transition: Dividend or Disaster?, Washington, DC: World Bank, 2015, pp. 43–61.
25. 1. Casterline, John B. and
    2. Samuel Agyei-Mensah,

    “Fertility desires and fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa,” in J. Mturi Akim and Samuel Agyei-Mensah, eds., Explaining Fertility Differences in Sub-Saharan Africa, Lewiston, New York: Edwin Mellen Press, 2014.
26. 1. Cervellati, Matteo and
    2. Uwe Sunde,

    “The Economic and Demographic Transition, Mortality, and Comparative Development,” American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2015, 7 (3), 189–225.

    OpenUrl
27. 1. Chabé-Ferret, Bastien,

    “Adherence to Cultural norms and Economic Incentives: Evidence from Fertility Timing Decisions,” Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 2019, 162, 24–48.

    OpenUrl
28. 1. Dasgupta, Aisha and
    2. Partha Dasgupta,

    “Socially Embedded Preferences, Environmental Externalities, and Reproductive Rights,” Population and Development Review, 2017, 43 (3), 405–441.

    OpenUrl
29. 1. de Silva, Tiloka and
    2. Silvana Tenreyro,

    “The Fall in Global Fertility: A Quantitative Model,” American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, July 2020, 12 (3), 77–109.

    OpenUrl
30. 1. Dinkelman, Taryn and
    2. L. Rachel Ngai,

    “Time Use and Gender in Africa in Times of Structural Transformation,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, February 2022, 36 (1), 57–80.

    OpenUrl
31. 1. Doepke, Matthias and
    2. Michèle Tertilt,

    “Women’s Empowerment, the Gender Gap in Desired Fertility, and Fertility Outcomes in Developing Countries,” AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2018, 108, 358–62.

    OpenUrl
32. 1. Doepke, Matthias,
    2. Anne Hannusch,
    3. Fabian Kindermann, and
    4. Michèle Tertilt

    , “The Economics of Fertility: a New Era,” in Shelly Lundberg and Alessandra Voena, eds., Handbook of the Economics of the Family, North-Holland, 2023.
33. 1. Donald, Aletheia,
    2. Markus Goldstein,
    3. Tricia Koroknay-Palicz, and
    4. Mathilde Sage,

    “The Fertility Impacts of Development Programs,” Technical Report Policy Research Working Paper 10848, World Bank, Africa Region, Gender Innovation Lab 2024.
34. 1. Dupas, Pascaline,
    2. Camille Falezan,
    3. Marie Christelle Mabeu, and
    4. Pauline Rossi,

    “Long-run Impacts of Forced Labor Migration on Fertility Behaviors: Evidence from Colonial West Africa,” NBER Working Paper, December 2023, (31993).
35. 1. Dupas, Pascaline,
    2. Seema Jayachandran,
    3. Adriana Lleras-Muney, and
    4. Pauline Rossi,

    “The Negligible Effect of Free Contraception on Fertility: Experimental Evidence from Burkina Faso,” American Economic Review, 2025, 115 (8), 2659–2688.

    OpenUrl
36. 1. Feenstra, Robert C.,
    2. Robert Inklaar, and
    3. Marcel P. Timmer,

    “The Next Generation of the Penn World Table,” American Economic Review, 2015, 105 (10), 3150–3182. Available for download at www.ggdc.net/pwt.

    OpenUrlCrossRef
37. 1. Fernández, Raquel and
    2. Alessandra Fogli,

    “Culture: An Empirical Investigation of Beliefs, Work, and Fertility,” American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, January 2009, 1 (1), 146–77.

    OpenUrlCrossRefWeb of Science
38. 1. Field, Erica,
    2. Vera Molitor,
    3. Alice Schoonbroodt, and
    4. Michèle Tertilt

    , “Gender Gaps in Completed Fertility,” Journal of Demographic Economics, 2016, 82 (2), 167–206.

    OpenUrl
39. 1. Fontenay, Sébastien,
    2. Paula E. Gobbi, and
    3. Marc Goni

    , “Fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa: the Role of Inheritance,” ECARES working paper, January 2024.
40. 1. Gaddis, Isabelle and
    2. Stephan Klasen,

    “Economic development, structural change, and women’s labor force participation: A reexamination of the feminization U hypothesis,” Journal of Population Economics, 2014, 27 (3), 639–681.

    OpenUrlCrossRef
41. 1. Glennerster, Rachel,
    2. Joanna Murray, and
    3. Victor Pouliquen

    , “The Media or the Message? Experimental Evidence on Mass Media and Modern Contraception Uptake in Burkina Faso.,” Centre for the Study of African Economies, 2021.
42. 1. Goldin, Claudia,

    “The U-Shaped Female Labor Force Function in Economic Development and Economic History,” 1995.
43. 1. Guirkinger, Catherine and
    2. Paola Villar,

    “Pro-birth policies, missions and fertility: historical evidence from Congo,” Working Paper, 2022.
44. 1. Günther, Isabel and
    2. Kenneth Harttgen,

    “Desired Fertility and Number of Children Born Across Time and Space,” Demography, Feb 2016, 53 (1), 55–83.

    OpenUrlPubMed
45. 1. Hainmueller, Jens,

    “Entropy Balancing for Causal Effects: A Multivariate Reweighting Method to Produce Balanced Samples in Observational Studies,” Political Analysis, 2012, 20 (1), 25–46.

    OpenUrlCrossRef
46. 1. Heath, Rachel and
    2. A. Mushfiq Mobarak,

    “Manufacturing Growth and the Lives of Bangladeshi Women,” Journal of Development Economics, 2015, 115, 1–15.

    OpenUrlCrossRef
47. ICF, “The DHS Program STATcompiler. [Accessed 1 January, 2024],” 2024.
48. 1. Jensen, Robert,

    “Do Labor Market Opportunities Affect Young Women’s Work and Family Decisions? Experimental Evidence from India,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 03 2012, 127 (2), 753–792.

    OpenUrlCrossRefWeb of Science
49. 1. Jensen, Robert, and
    2. Emily Oster,

    “The Power of TV: Cable Television and Women’s Status in India*,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 08 2009, 124 (3), 1057–1094.

    OpenUrlCrossRefWeb of Science
50. 1. Jones, Larry E.,
    2. Michèle Tertilt, and
    3. Alice Schoonbroodt

    , “Fertility Theories: Can they explain the Negative Fertility-Income Relationship?,” in John Shoven, ed., Demography and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, November 2010, pp. 43–100.
51. 1. Joshi, Shareen and
    2. T. Schultz,

    “Family Planning and Women’s and Children’s Health: Long-Term Consequences of an Outreach Program in Matlab, Bangladesh,” Demography, 12 2012, 50.
52. 1. Katav-Herz, Shirit,

    “A Model of Parental Demand for Child Labor with High Fertility Norms,” Review of Economics of the Household, 2003, 1 (3), 219–233.

    OpenUrl
53. 1. Kim, Minki,

    “The Macroeconomic Consequences of Malaria Eradication in Sub-Saharan Africa,” May 2025. Working paper, University of Mannheim.
54. 1. Kuecken, Maria,
    2. Josselin Thuilliez, and
    3. Marie-Anne Valfort,

    “Disease and Human Capital Accumulation: Evidence from the Roll Back Malaria Partnership in Africa,” The Economic Journal, 12 2020, 131 (637), 2171–2202.

    OpenUrl
55. 1. La Ferrara, Eliana,
    2. Alberto Chong, and
    3. Suzanne Duryea

    , “Soap Operas and Fertility: Evidence from Brazil,” American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, July 2012, 4 (4), 1–31.

    OpenUrl
56. 1. Mammen, Kristin and
    2. Christina Paxson,

    “Women’s Work and Economic Development,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, December 2000, 14 (4), 141–164.

    OpenUrlCrossRefWeb of Science
57. 1. McKelvey, Christopher,
    2. Duncan Thomas, and
    3. Elizabeth Frankenberg

    , “Fertility Regulation in an Economic Crisis,” Economic Development and Cultural Change, 2012, 61 (1), 7–38.

    OpenUrl
58. 1. Miller, Grant,

    “Contraception as Development? New Evidence from Family Planning in Colombia,” The Economic Journal, 08 2009, 120 (545), 709–736.

    OpenUrl
59. 1. Munshi, Kaivan and
    2. Jacques Myaux,

    “Social norms and the fertility transition,” Journal of Development Economics, 2006, 80 (1), 1–38.

    OpenUrlCrossRef
60. 1. Murphy, Kevin M.,
    2. Andrei Shleifer, and
    3. Robert W. Vishny,

    “Industrialization and the Big Push,” Journal of Political Economy, 1989, 97 (5), 1003–1026.

    OpenUrlCrossRefWeb of Science
61. 1. Müller, Maximilian W.,
    2. Joan Hamory,
    3. Jennifer Johnson-Hanks, and
    4. Edward Miguel,

    “The illusion of stable fertility preferences,” Population Studies, 2022, 76 (2), 169–189.

    OpenUrlPubMed
62. 1. Pörtner, Christian C.,

    “How Is Fertility Behavior in Africa Different?,” Demography, 2025, 62 (4), 1293–1314.

    OpenUrlPubMed
63. 1. Pritchett, Lant,

    “Desired Fertility and the Impact of Population Policies,” Policy Research Working Paper Series 1273, The World Bank 1994.
64. 1. Pörtner, Claus C.,
    2. Kathleen Beegle, and
    3. Luc Christiaensen

    , “Family Planning and Fertility: Estimating Program Effects Using Cross-Sectional Data,” Policy Research Working Paper 5812, World Bank September 2011.
65. 1. Rasul, Imran,

    “Household Bargaining over Fertility: Theory and Evidence from Malaysia,” Journal of Development Economics, 2008, 86 (2), 215–241.

    OpenUrlCrossRef
66. 1. Rossi, Pauline,

    “Strategic Choices in Polygamous Households: Theory and Evidence from Senegal,” The Review of Economic Studies, 09 2019, 86 (3), 1332–1370.

    OpenUrl
67. 1. Rossi, Pauline and
    2. Mathilde Godard,

    “The Old-Age Security Motive for Fertility: Evidence from the Extension of Social Pensions in Namibia,” American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, November 2022, 14 (4), 488–518.

    OpenUrl
68. 1. Rossi, Pauline and
    2. Yun Xiao,

    “Spillovers in Childbearing Decisions and Fertility Transitions: Evidence from China,” Journal of the European Economic Association, 04 2023, p. jvad025.
69. 1. Rud, Juan Pablo and
    2. Ija Trapeznikova,

    “Job Creation and Wages in Least Developed Countries: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa,” The Economic Journal, 08 2020, 131 (635), 1331–1364.

    OpenUrl
70. 1. Schultz, T. Paul,

    “Changing World Prices, Women’s Wages, and the Fertility Transition: Sweden, 1860-1910,” Journal of Political Economy, 1985, 93 (6), 1126–1154.

    OpenUrlCrossRefPubMedWeb of Science
71. 1. Shapiro, David and
    2. Andrew Hinde,

    “On the Pace of Fertility Decline in Sub-Saharan Africa,” Demographic Research, 2017, 37, 1327–1338.

    OpenUrl
72. 1. Shapiro, David and
    2. Michel Tenikue,

    “Women’s education, infant and child mortality, and fertility decline in urban and rural sub-Saharan Africa,” Demographic Research, September 13 2017, 37 (21), 669–708. Research Article, © 2017 David Shapiro & Michel Tenikue.

    OpenUrl
73. 1. Smits, J. and
    2. R. Steendijk,

    “The International Wealth Index (IWI),” Social Indicators Research, 2015, 122, 65–85.

    OpenUrlCrossRef
74. 1. Spolaore, Enrico and
    2. Romain Wacziarg,

    “Fertility and Modernity,” The Economic Journal, 11 2021, 132 (642), 796–833.

    OpenUrl
75. 1. Tertilt, Michèle,

    “Polygyny, Fertility, and Savings,” Journal of Political Economy, 2005, 113 (6), 1341–1371.

    OpenUrlCrossRefWeb of Science
76. 1. Tertilt, Michèle,

    “Polygyny, Women’s Rights, and Development,” Journal of the European Economic Association, May 2006, 4 (2-3), 523–530.

    OpenUrlCrossRefWeb of Science
77. 1. Uberti, Luca J. and
    2. Elodie Douarin,

    “The Feminisation U, cultural norms, and the plough,” Journal of Population Economics, 2023, 36 (1), 5–35.

    OpenUrl
78. United Nations, “Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. World Population Prospects, Volume I: Comprehensive Tables.,” 2019.
79. 1. Vogl, Tom,

    “Fertility Decline and Educational Progress in African Women and Children,” Working Paper, 2024.
80. World Bank, Accelerating Poverty Reduction in Africa., Beegle, Kathleen, and Luc Christiaensen eds. License: Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0 IGO. Washington, DC: World Bank., 2019.
81. 1. Wu, H. and
    2. L.M. Pesando,

    “Educational boundaries explain strength and variation in global fertility convergence,” Scientific Reports, 2024, 14, 27323.

    OpenUrlPubMed