Negative Supply Shocks and Delayed Health Care

Abstract

In 2011, Pennsylvania passed regulations requiring abortion-providing facilities to meet ambulatory surgical facility standards, which ultimately caused the closure of almost half of the state’s abortion facilities. All closing facilities were geographically near facilities that remained open, meaning distance to the nearest clinic was unchanged while local clinic capacity fell. I use a difference-in-differences design supplemented with a synthetic control method and find that reduced clinic capacity caused 30-40 percent fewer abortions in the first 8 weeks of gestation and more abortions at later gestational ages. Evidence suggests an increase in birth rates for Black women, though these results are sensitive to specification and control group choices.