PT  - JOURNAL ARTICLE
AU  - Engdahl, Mattias
AU  - Godard, Mathilde
AU  - Skans, Oskar Nordström
TI  - Early Labor Market Prospects and Family Formation
AID  - 10.3368/jhr.1220-11387R1
DP  - 2022 May 09
TA  - Journal of Human Resources
PG  - 1220-11387R1
4099  - http://jhr.uwpress.org/content/early/2022/05/02/jhr.1220-11387R1.short
4100  - http://jhr.uwpress.org/content/early/2022/05/02/jhr.1220-11387R1.full
AB  - Using quasi-random variation in graduation years of Swedish vocational high-school females at the sudden onset of a deep national recession, we study how deteriorated early labor-market prospects affected economic and family outcomes during the following decades. Labor-market consequences were severe but not permanent. In contrast, family outcomes were permanently altered, in particular for low-GPA women. These women married and had children earlier, and they partnered with lower-performing spouses. Divorce and single-motherhood rates rose, and welfare-claims remained elevated for decades. This suggests that temporary shocks to female labor market prospects can propagate into long-run poverty through endogenous adjustments of marriage-quality thresholds.