RT Journal Article
SR Electronic
T1 Early Labor Market Prospects and Family Formation
JF Journal of Human Resources
JO J Hum Resour
FD University of Wisconsin Press
SP 1220-11387R1
DO 10.3368/jhr.1220-11387R1
A1 Engdahl, Mattias
A1 Godard, Mathilde
A1 Skans, Oskar Nordström
YR 2022
UL http://jhr.uwpress.org/content/early/2022/05/02/jhr.1220-11387R1.abstract
AB Using quasi-random variation in graduation years of Swedish vocational high-school females at the sudden onset of a deep national recession, we study how deteriorated early labor-market prospects affected economic and family outcomes during the following decades. Labor-market consequences were severe but not permanent. In contrast, family outcomes were permanently altered, in particular for low-GPA women. These women married and had children earlier, and they partnered with lower-performing spouses. Divorce and single-motherhood rates rose, and welfare-claims remained elevated for decades. This suggests that temporary shocks to female labor market prospects can propagate into long-run poverty through endogenous adjustments of marriage-quality thresholds.