PT  - JOURNAL ARTICLE
AU  - Li, Hongbin
AU  - Liang, James
AU  - Wu, Binzhen
TI  - Labor Market Experience and Returns to College Education in Fast-Growing Economies
AID  - 10.3368/jhr.0421-11629R2
DP  - 2025 Jan 01
TA  - Journal of Human Resources
PG  - 289--325
VI  - 60
IP  - 1
4099  - http://jhr.uwpress.org/content/60/1/289.short
4100  - http://jhr.uwpress.org/content/60/1/289.full
AB  - China’s college admissions increased fivefold between 1998 and 2009. While the college premium for young workers declined, that for senior workers increased in this period. In our general equilibrium model, a rising demand for skills (education and experience) explains both trends. A demand shock leads to an expansion in the elastic college enrollment, depressing the college premium for young workers. With an inelastic supply, experienced college graduates continue to enjoy a rising premium. Despite the low immediate premium, young individuals continue to flood into colleges because they foresee high lifetime returns. The lifetime college premium differs significantly from the cross-sectional premium estimated by the Mincer equation. Simulations match empirical results well.