RT Journal Article
SR Electronic
T1 Anticipatory Fertility
JF Journal of Human Resources
JO J Hum Resour
FD University of Wisconsin Press
SP 1025-14577R2
DO 10.3368/jhr.1025-14577R2
A1 Bárdits, Anna
A1 Adamecz, Anna
A1 Bisztray, Márta
A1 Weber, Andrea
A1 Szabó-Morvai, Ágnes
YR 2026
UL http://jhr.uwpress.org/content/early/2026/09/01/jhr.1025-14577R2.abstract
AB We study fertility responses to employment shocks using unique Hungarian administrative data linking firm-level mass layoff and closure events to individual-level birth and abortion records. We show that the main fertility response occurs in anticipation and differs by shock type. The number of conceptions leading to births increases in the year preceding a mass layoff (when maternal employment protection is available), but not before a firm closure (without employment protection). We interpret this result as evidence of anticipatory fertility behavior: women tend to schedule childbirth when job loss can be avoided.