PT  - JOURNAL ARTICLE
AU  - Brian Jacob
AU  - Lars Lefgren
AU  - Enrico Moretti
TI  - The Dynamics of Criminal Behavior
AID  - 10.3368/jhr.XLII.3.489
DP  - 2007 Jul 01
TA  - Journal of Human Resources
PG  - 489--527
VI  - XLII
IP  - 3
4099  - http://jhr.uwpress.org/content/XLII/3/489.short
4100  - http://jhr.uwpress.org/content/XLII/3/489.full
SO  - J Hum Resour2007 Jul 01; XLII
AB  - While the persistence of criminal activity is well documented, this may be due to persistence in the unobserved determinants of crime. There are good reasons to believe, however, that there may actually be a negative relationship between crime rates in a particular area due to temporal displacement. We exploit the correlation between weather and crime to examine the short-run dynamics of crime. Using variation in lagged crime rates due to weather shocks, we find that the positive serial correlation is reversed. These findings suggest that the long-run impact of temporary crime-prevention efforts may be smaller than the short-run effects.