TY - JOUR T1 - The Dynamics of Criminal Behavior JF - Journal of Human Resources JO - J Hum Resour SP - 489 LP - 527 DO - 10.3368/jhr.XLII.3.489 VL - XLII IS - 3 AU - Brian Jacob AU - Lars Lefgren AU - Enrico Moretti Y1 - 2007/07/01 UR - http://jhr.uwpress.org/content/XLII/3/489.abstract N2 - While the persistence of criminal activity is well documented, this may be due to persistence in the unobserved determinants of crime. There are good reasons to believe, however, that there may actually be a negative relationship between crime rates in a particular area due to temporal displacement. We exploit the correlation between weather and crime to examine the short-run dynamics of crime. Using variation in lagged crime rates due to weather shocks, we find that the positive serial correlation is reversed. These findings suggest that the long-run impact of temporary crime-prevention efforts may be smaller than the short-run effects. ER -