PT - JOURNAL ARTICLE AU - Robert A. Moffitt AU - Peter Gottschalk TI - Trends in the Transitory Variance of Male Earnings AID - 10.3368/jhr.47.1.204 DP - 2012 Jan 01 TA - Journal of Human Resources PG - 204--236 VI - 47 IP - 1 4099 - http://jhr.uwpress.org/content/47/1/204.short 4100 - http://jhr.uwpress.org/content/47/1/204.full SO - J Hum Resour2012 Jan 01; 47 AB - We estimate the trend in the transitory variance of male earnings in the United States using the Michigan Panel Study of Income Dynamics from 1970 to 2004. Using an error components model and simpler but only approximate methods, we find that the transitory variance started to increase in the early 1970s, continued to increase through the mid-1980s, and then remained at this new higher level through the 1990s and beyond. Thus the increase mostly occurred about 30 years ago. Its increase accounts for between 31 and 49 percent of the total rise in cross-sectional variance, depending on the time period.