RT Journal Article
SR Electronic
T1 Trends in the Transitory Variance of Male Earnings
JF Journal of Human Resources
JO J Hum Resour
FD University of Wisconsin Press
SP 204
OP 236
DO 10.3368/jhr.47.1.204
VO 47
IS 1
A1 Robert A. Moffitt
A1 Peter Gottschalk
YR 2012
UL http://jhr.uwpress.org/content/47/1/204.abstract
AB We estimate the trend in the transitory variance of male earnings in the United States using the Michigan Panel Study of Income Dynamics from 1970 to 2004. Using an error components model and simpler but only approximate methods, we find that the transitory variance started to increase in the early 1970s, continued to increase through the mid-1980s, and then remained at this new higher level through the 1990s and beyond. Thus the increase mostly occurred about 30 years ago. Its increase accounts for between 31 and 49 percent of the total rise in cross-sectional variance, depending on the time period.