TY - JOUR T1 - How Subjective Beliefs about HIV Infection Affect Life-Cycle Fertility JF - Journal of Human Resources JO - J Hum Resour SP - 680 LP - 718 DO - 10.3368/jhr.52.3.0314-6263R1 VL - 52 IS - 3 AU - Gil Shapira Y1 - 2017/07/01 UR - http://jhr.uwpress.org/content/52/3/680.abstract N2 - This paper assesses the link between beliefs about HIV infection and fertility. I develop and estimate a dynamic discrete-choice life-cycle fertility model in which expectations about life horizon and child survival depend on perceived HIV infection. Using data containing beliefs on own status, I show that the presence of HIV reduces average lifetime fertility in rural Malawi by 0.15 births. Counterfactual policy simulations predict that prevention of mother-to-child transmission and HIV testing would have overall negligible impacts on fertility, although testing reduces the fertility of infected women, leading to a reduction in child mortality. ER -