PT  - JOURNAL ARTICLE
AU  - Gil Shapira
TI  - How Subjective Beliefs about HIV Infection Affect Life-Cycle Fertility: Evidence from Rural Malawi 
AID  - 10.3368/jhr.52.3.0314-6263R1
DP  - 2016 Aug 17
TA  - Journal of Human Resources
PG  - 0314-6263R1
4099  - http://jhr.uwpress.org/content/early/2016/08/15/jhr.52.3.0314-6263R1.short
4100  - http://jhr.uwpress.org/content/early/2016/08/15/jhr.52.3.0314-6263R1.full
AB  - This paper assesses the link between beliefs about HIV infection and fertility. I develop and estimate a dynamic discrete-choice life-cycle fertility model in which expectations about life horizon and child survival depend on perceived HIV infection. Using data containing beliefs on own status, I show that the presence of HIV reduces average life time fertility in rural Malawi by 0.15 births. Counterfactual policy simulations predict that prevention of mother-to-child transmission and HIV testing would have overall negligible impacts on fertility although testing reduces the fertility of infected women, leading to a reduction in child mortality. (JEL codes: O15, I10, J13)