PT  - JOURNAL ARTICLE
AU  - Marc K. Chan
TI  - Measuring the Effects of Welfare Time Limits
AID  - 10.3368/jhr.53.1.0814-6554R2
DP  - 2016 Nov 02
TA  - Journal of Human Resources
PG  - 0814-6554R2
4099  - http://jhr.uwpress.org/content/early/2016/11/01/jhr.53.1.0814-6554R2.short
4100  - http://jhr.uwpress.org/content/early/2016/11/01/jhr.53.1.0814-6554R2.full
AB  - This paper develops a simple regression model that incorporates the behavioral dynamics of time limits and is estimable by panel data techniques. By relating this model to reduced-form analysis, I clarify an implicit assumption that underlies a popular difference-in-differences (DID) specification, which understates the overall effects of time limits. I also find that a considerable amount of dynamics is due to individuals reducing welfare use, as their stock of remaining welfare eligibility depletes. This generates more plausible predictions related to counterfactuals, cumulative welfare use patterns, and mechanical termination of benefits.