Medium-Term Effects (Outcome: National standardized score on age 14 teacher assessments of mathematics and English attainment, combined)
| Basic | Ability Interactions | Subgroup Analysis | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Linear 2 | Nonlinear 3 | Free Lunch = 0 4 | Free Lunch = 1 5 | First Language English 6 | First Language Not English 7 | |
| Early fail | 0.048+ (0.029) | 0.056 (0.039) | 0.069* (0.036) | 0.053+ (0.030) | 0.017 (0.045) | 0.051+ (0.030) | 0.060 (0.069) |
| Early fail x prior ability percentile | −0.001 (0.001) | ||||||
| Early fail x prior ability quartile=2 | −0.069 (0.043) | ||||||
| Early fail x prior ability quartile=3 | −0.048 (0.043) | ||||||
| Early fail x prior ability quartile=4 | −0.095* (0.046) | ||||||
| Full set of controls | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Observations | 10,047 | 8,948 | 8,948 | 7,685 | 2,324 | 8,594 | 1,415 |
| R-squared | 0.344 | 0.538 | 0.539 | 0.303 | 0.330 | 0.369 | 0.248 |
↵Notes: Standard errors reported in parentheses; +, * and ** indicate significance at the 10 percent, 5 percent and 1 percent levels, respectively. Standard errors clustered at the school level. Combined mathematics and English outcome measured three years after leaving the (failed) primary school. Thus, age-14 (Key Stage 3) mathematics and English attainment is derived from secondary school teacher assessments in 2008–2009 (for students who attended primary schools failed in 2005–2006) and 2009–10 (students who attended primary schools failed in 2006–2007). All regressions include full set of student- and school-level controls; see notes to Table 3 for details. For Columns 2 and 3 students with missing age-7 test scores are dropped from the sample.