Table 3

Relationship between a Birth Cohort’s Long-Tenure Share at Age 55–64 and Unemployment Rates Earlier in Life

Dependent Variable: Percent of Cohort with 20+ Years of Tenure at Ages 55–64 (Men)
RHS Variable for Indicated Age Groups
Average Percent of Cohort Employed in Previous Year but Not CurrentlyUnemployment RateAverage Percent of Cohort with Multiple Employers
(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)
Average percent of cohort
 Employed in prev. year but not currently, ages 35–54−4.3−5.8−3.7
(0.6)(0.7)(0.8)
 Employed in prev. year but not currently, ages 25–340.0−0.6
(0.4)(0.2)
 Employed in prev. year but not currently, ages 35–44−2.2−2.6
(0.6)(0.4)
 Employed in prev. year but not currently, ages 45–54−1.9−2.5
(0.7)(0.5)
R2 0.650.660.650.690.34
Number of cohorts3535353535

Sources: For tenure estimates, we used the CPS tenure supplements from 1983 and later. For the unemployment, nonemployment, and multiple employer rates, we used the March (ASEC) supplement to the CPS.

Notes: Table shows coefficient estimates (and standard errors, in parentheses) from OLS regressions where the dependent variable is the percent of the cohort with 20 or more years of tenure at ages 55–64 (estimated as described in Footnote 26), and the independent variables are as listed in the table.