Racial Fertility Differences and Racial Gaps in the Adult Outcomes of the Next Generation
| Baseline | State-Specific Cohort Trends | Cohort-by-Demographic Effects | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Highest Grade Completed | Log Earnings | Highest Grade Completed | Log Earnings | Highest Grade Completed | Log Earnings | |
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | |
| Panel A: South | ||||||
| Black–white GFR gap/20 | −0.191** | −0.029 | −0.126** | −0.084*** | −0.135 | −0.077 |
| (0.061) | (0.029) | (0.056) | (0.024) | (0.125) | (0.047) | |
| Observations (state–years) | 231 | 231 | 231 | 231 | 231 | 231 |
| Panel B: North | ||||||
| Black–white GFR gap/20 | 0.008 | 0.008 | −0.015 | −0.004 | 0.002 | 0.006 |
| (0.041) | (0.012) | (0.067) | (0.018) | (0.044) | (0.017) | |
| Observations (state–years) | 765 | 765 | 765 | 765 | 765 | 765 |
| p-value for south–north difference | 0.003 | 0.191 | 0.078 | 0.011 | 0.022 | 0.030 |
Notes: All models are estimated on collapsed state-cohort level census/ACS data merged with Vital Statistics fertility data. Dependent variables are the Black–white mean difference of the outcome indicated in the column headings, at the state–cohort level. Models in Columns 1 and 2 include state and cohort fixed effects, the share of each state–cohort cell that is female, and a cubic of average age at the time that the outcomes were observed. Models in Columns 3 and 4 additionally include interactions between state indicators and a continuous cohort variable, and models in Columns 5 and 6 additionally include interactions between cohort indicators and the following 1960 state characteristics: median income, median education, percent Black, total population, land area, and percent urban. Mean values for the outcomes were calculated using individual sampling weights, while each cell is given equal weight when estimating the regression models. Panel A restricts the sample to individuals born in the South, which consists of Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia, and Panel B restricts the sample to individuals born in the North, which consists of the balance of the lower 48 states. The bottom row reports p-values from chi-square tests of whether the coefficients for the South in Panel A and the coefficients for the North in Panel B are equal. Standard errors clustered by state are reported in parentheses. Significance: *p < 0.1, **p < 0.05, ***p < 0.01.